12/10/18

Tom Brennan - BEWARE OLD HITTERS


I wanted to refresh my memory on the exploits of one Willie Montanez, briefly a Mets first baseman in the 1970's. 

I recall in 1978 as a Met, Willie played 159 games, with 17 homers and numerous warning track fly outs.

Shea was a tough place to hit, and Willie was traded in 1979 after 109 games with just 5 homers and a .234 average, and in hitter-friendly Texas in 38 games post-trade, he hit 8 homers and .319. Even then, I wondered why the Mets did not bring the fences in.

But that is not the reason for my story today - it is instead a reminder to be very cautious acquiring aging dudes.


Willie, between 1974 at age 26 and 1976 at age 28, hit close to .310.  

He then arrived at Shea, the land of where hitters lost many extra base hits in a pitcher's park, but despite some decline, he hit pretty well until age 32.  

And then, he went into severe decline, with one about 300 more career at bats which combined were slightly above .200.




Todd Frazier had 2 excellent seasons at age 29 and 30, whacking 75 homers. But at age 29, he hit .255. At age 30, he slid average-wise and hit just .225. 



At age 31, he hit .213. At age 32, he hit .213. Until proven otherwise, to me that spells "DECLINE".




Let's continue. How about the great Albert Pujols?  

He hit WELL above .300 annually until age 30, then hit less - about .290 - at ages 31 and 32.  

Then significantly lower after 32. DECLINE.




We have Robbie Cano, and hope he will continue to out-perform at age 36 and beyond. But more often than not, guys DECLINE throughout their 30s.




This is a young man's game. Brodie, proceed accordingly.

9 comments:

That Adam Smith said...

This, plus the history of this org to play older, declining players every day for years over younger options in order to get “value” from their big contracts, is why the Cano/Diaz deal (and the five years left on the Canondeal) makes me queasy.

That Adam Smith said...

Er, that should read “Cano deal”. Damn phone.

Tom Brennan said...

Adam, I know the phone's Auto Mistake feature very well.

All we can hope is that Cano is one of the few elite level hitters (Aaron, Mays, Rose) that stays real strong right into his late 30s.

One good longevity-related thing with Cano is he does not try to steal ANY bases. Which in one sense is not good, but it helps avoid Lagares/Wright Injury Impact Syndrome. I wonder if David would have had the stenosis he did if he ran a lot less. Stealing bases over time can be physically traumatic.

I wonder how many more games Lagares would have played to date if he realized he is not Evel Knievel and that the ground and fences are HARD.

Mack Ade said...

I want three healthy seasons from Cano.

Past that, it's the Sterling Equities accountants problem.

bill metsiac said...

With the post-32 stats of Pujols, Montanez, et al, that you posted, I note nothing about Cano's decline since he was 32. But he's not the key piece of this trade, anyway. The key piece is 24.

Tom Brennan said...

Bill, good point about Cano.

I think, though, without researching it, that his drop off in average may largely be attributable not to age but to 2 other things: loss of that oh-so-friendly Yank Stadium right field porch, and it being easier to pitch him carefully on an inferior hitting team.

I wonder, if he had stayed a Yank, if his numbers would be down at all.

Anonymous said...

Cano has played third. Seattle and in the Dominican. McNeil is a better second baseman, while Robinson hits more homeruns. Cano on third makes a lot of sense.

I liked the Jeurys Familia reunite.

Anonymous said...

Noah still with team. Thank God!

There is no way the Mets could make up his loss in the rotation. No free agent, and no team is going to trade you their ace even if the Mets had someone to trade for that starter with.

Tom Brennan said...

Anonymous, for now, at least, the Mets say Frazier is their 3B and Cano is their 2B. But McNeil hit 116 points better than Frazier. If Ted Williams for his career hit 116 points lower than he did, he would have hit in the .220's.
A 116 point differential is a mighty big deal.

So I cannot imagine McNeil not starting, unless he regresses a bunch (at least somewhat possible) and Frazier visits Ponce de Leon (good luck there).