Mike Freire - Fleeting Thoughts
Well, here we are Mets' fans!
Spring Training will officially kick off this week in Florida and Arizona, which should go a long way towards making most of you forget the crazy weather that has taken over parts of the US this winter.
I am lucky to live in Florida so I haven't had to deal with subzero temperatures, but the start of the baseball season still feels like the unofficial start to Summer even if some of you have to wait a bit longer for the snow to melt, etc.
This particular Spring Training cycle feels a bit different then the last few since the Mets are actually in the conversation for a playoff berth. Putting the Mets and playoffs in the same sentence would have gotten you committed to a mental institution the last few years, but now we have bonafide "hope" delivered by a new administration and several new faces.
I am feeling so optimistic that I might make the three hour trek across the State to catch a few days of the action in Port St Lucie, which I haven't done in quite a while.
Enough about me and the weather, right?
1. On the basic topic of projected records and playoff chances, there has been an increase in "positive chatter" (if that is a thing) surrounding the Mets. For example, Baseball Prospectus released it's 2019 PECOTA projections and they have the Mets finishing with a record of 89-73 which would be a tie for first place in the National League East with the Washington Nationals (quite an improvement).
Remember, outside of the Marlins, the rest of the division is pretty stacked with teams that are all capable of making a playoff run. When four of the five teams are in this category, it usually results in a bit of parity (everyone takes turns beating everyone else) and a lower win total for the eventual division champion.
The Braves won the division with 90 wins last year, so 89 wins seems about right for the coming year. In short, the Mets need to find 12 extra wins somewhere. Can you get those on Amazon Prime?
***For fun, the same forecasting model picked the 2018 Mets to finish with a record of 82-80, which was a bit optimistic (by five games). However, most computer models cannot foresee something like the unusual string of injuries and ineffectiveness that plagued our squad last year.
2. Since I sort of like statistics (OK, I am full on in love with them), I like to find patterns or "cause and effect" relationships in the numbers. One of the biggest indicators of success in baseball is the Pythagorean Win Theorem, or in normal speak, the "expected win total" for a team based upon runs scored and runs surrendered.
The only flaw is that the formula uses results that have already happened, meaning you get an accurate look back at a teams' performance. Plus, the more data you have the more accurate the projection, so it takes a rather large handful of games before the models settle down, if you will.
***Several different web sites have started listing the projected record for teams, embedded within the overall standings which is pretty cool. ESPN lists the figure on their main standings page, within the "expanded tab" all the way to the right side beneath "EXWL".
Last year, the Mets scored 676 runs and gave up 707, which was a -31 differential. That led to a record of 77-85, which was also the projection for the listed formula (I am not cherry picking, I swear).
This year, the PROJECTIONS (guesses) are 699 runs scored and 630 runs allowed, which would result in a positive differential of 69 runs and a projected record of 89-73. Not a huge turnaround on offense (23 more runs), but a sizable reduction in runs allowed (77 fewer runs) which makes sense if the team stays reasonably healthy and if BVW's new bullpen is as good as advertised.
3. Continuing on with the win projection theme, the "Good Fellas" in Las Vegas also put out an estimated win total called "over/under" for every team in MLB.
I find this interesting, since they have a lot more riding on the results (MONEY) then the other websites and so called experts do. According to the folks in Sin City, here is how they see the NL East breaking down in 2019;
Washington 88.5
Atlanta 84
New York 83.5
Philadelphia 83
Miami 65.5
Ignore the "half wins" since it is related to betting and not a true figure for our purposes (unless something really strange happens this year). A more modest outlook for sure, but it does seem to agree that the division will be VERY close and that the winner will likely be below 90 wins for the season.
I think that bodes well for our team since we left quite a few "wins" on the field last year due to our less then stellar bullpen. Again, not a surprise that the bullpen was lavished with so much love and energy in the offseason (it just needs to pan out).
4. One more thing (not a statistic, I promise), do any of you think that BVW is finished with his roster tinkering? They have addressed most of the vacancies on the roster and they have built some solid depth for when the inevitable injury occurs. However, due to a variety of reasons, there are still some really good players on the free agent market they may be available for less then the "going rate" if you will.
I have nothing against Jason Vargas, but our fifth starter role is still "up for grabs" in my book. We touched on Gio Gonzalez in a previous article, but he would be a nice upgrade in that spot. Or, imagine aiming a bit higher and snagging Dallas Keuchel on a short term deal?
Both of those moves would be palatable if you could move once or more extraneous pieces (Lagares, D'Arnaud and Vargas) in the process and save some money. It certainly seems like BVW is expecting to win right out of the gate, so why not go for it? Plus, landing someone like Keuchel would also provide a bit of a hedge for 2020 when you could lose Zack Wheeler to free agency.
I don't know about you, but I would very much like a rotation of DeGrom, Syndergaard, Keuchel, Wheeler and Matz. I think it would change our projected outlook a bit and likely make the Mets the frontrunner for the division title.
Well, until next time, stay warm Mets' fans, Summer is coming. Oh and don't forget to get your significant other something nice......it is Valentine's Day, after all!
8 comments:
Hi Mike.
I think 89 wins should be a minimum. The 699 runs projected runs scored for the Mets (just 23 more than 2018) seems low. Last year, we had a catching mess, a first base mess, a shortstop who was still getting his footing, a .213 hitting 3B, and a Conforto whose 2nd half performance seems to indicate he should be a better hitter in 2019.
We add a Cano, a full year of McNeil, a Lowrie, a Ramos, and likely an Alonso - even a .304 career hitting TJ Rivera - I think runs scored should be around 750, conservatively 730 (4.5 runs per game).
Runs allowed 630 - sounds about right. So I think we win 90-95, since the run differential will be greater than the PROJECTION that got them to 89-73.
I think Vegas' 83 wins is way too low. Not just the hitting will be better, the bullpen should be drastically better. A run per 9 innings less than last year's 4.96 ERA bullpen seems to be a very easy level to attain - I think conservatively the pen should fall in the 3.50 - 3.75 ERA range. I also feel quite optimistic that last year's rotation, while good, will perform a little better in 2019.
I think the team is capable of exceeding the PECOTA numbers, but they will need to stay relatively healthy and the bullpen needs
to be much better (as you stated). The Vegas numbers seem low and if i were a betting man.......
I tell you, if they can shed a few extraneous players, add another good starter and get Cespedes back for the second half of the year, things could get interesting, for sure.
Whether or not they get Gio or Keuchel (getting one of them or another reliable 6th starter is essential), I don’t think moving Vargas is a good idea, because there WILL be injuries in the rotation and rolling the dice on an Oswalt, Santiago or Flexen (or moving Lugo from the bullpen, where he really thrived last year), would just be repeating what didn’t work in the past. I think keeping Vargas around makes depth sense, even though it may not make total dollars and cents sense.
I am in Vegas now, until tomorrow and have tried to bet the "over", but none of the Sports Books I tried are taking the category yet. I'll try Joisey when I get home.
On Vargas: I think the right play here is to publicly and openly show him full support, give him a little rope, and hope he succeeds. Meanwhile, of course, be open to a Plan B. As I commented before, I don't think it's realistic to think the Mets will sign a major league pitcher to replace him. They don't have that kind of budget. It's not a Brodie decision; it's a Wilpon reality. Need to find more minor-league signing options and hope for the best, while monitoring contract situations for the guys who are out there. Lastly: there's no guarantee that Gio will have a better season than Vargas who, in theory, offers a nice complementary approach to the Mets hard-throwing trio of right-handers. I believe he could have a good season. At this point, I'd just try to support him and make that the goal.
On Brodie: It's certainly not going to show in the stats, but what's the value of optimism in the clubhouse? Players do seem to be encouraged by the new vibe, new players. This was a team that badly, badly needed a transfusion throughout the organization. I look back at last April, the Mets in 1st place, when both catchers went down in a period of 24 hours. The GM did nothing. They had no suitable replacements. To me, the message was sent loud and clear: oh well. Players in the clubhouse understood the situation. Reinforcements weren't coming. I believe that Brodie is sending a very different message to the players in this clubhouse. Which goes back to the Vargas issue. My bet is that when things go wrong -- guys get hurt, or fail on the field -- that the Mets GM will act. He won't just sit on his hands and watch the whole thing go up in flames.
Jimmy P
I, for one, was never impressed with Bill Pecota's numbers.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/pecotbi01.shtml
:)
Look -
Projections and analytics can not analyze how the top four teams in this division will play against each other in the month of September.
THAT will determine who wins the division, not Pecota numbers (even if they do them in Dakota).
(Pecota... Dakota... get it)
Dave is right on injuries - injuries are probably the MOST impactful factor in a team not making its target. Just look at the Mets in 2017 and 2018.
I think the 2019 squad is far better insulated from the injury bug, but another quality starter would be great - because the three guys Dave mentioned (Oswalt, Santiago or Flexen), I as a GM would not be comfortable relying on for more than a few games if I want to win the division.
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