Tom Brennan - UPGRADED METS ANALYTICS AND CITIFIELD FENCES

I LOVE ANALYTICS! 

DOESN'T EVERYBODY?

If you don't love analytics, something just doesn't add up!

I read with great hope and interest the recent Ken Davidoff article in the New York Post about the Mets' addition of analyst (actually "Assistant GM for Systematic Development") Adam Guttridge.

One would have thought during the era of Mr. Moneyball, Sandy Alderson, that the Mets would have had MLB-leading analytics going on...but Ken's article states that the Mets had just 3 analysts, while the Bronx Boys had about twenty.

Which makes me believe that analytics were far from maximized under Sandy.  

Maybe the Wilpons did not want to spend on analytics - whatever.  I don't need analytics to tell me that 3 analysts vs. 20 meant the Mets' analytics were not nearly as adequate.

The article noted that Mr. Guttridge started young.  He first did an analysis while in high school for the Colorado Rockies, indicating that the extremely positive hitting performances by the Rockettes in Corrs Field actually hurt them hitting on the road.

Which tells me two things:

First, as a kid, he was sharp - and now, he must be even sharper.

And second, and much to my delight, he will certainly and absolutely look at (and present solutions for) the Mets' home hitting malaise dilemma.

He surely is already aware, as I wrote recently, that the Mets scored 274 runs at home in 2018 and 402 runs on the road.  

And that deGrom's home ERA was around a microscopic 1.50, but he miserably went just 4-6 at Citifield anyway.  

And he will realize, as I did, that this team has averaged far less runs scored at home than on the road not just in 2018, but over those several seasons, a differential far greater than any advantage that the Mets' pitchers accrued at home vs. on the road.

And he will no doubt be aware, as an analyst extraordinaire, that while the Baltimore Orioles had a huge home field advantage at home over the past 7 seasons, winning 65 games more at home than on the road, the Mets in those same seven season had a total home field win advantage of exactly one game.  

And that such a complete lack of home field advantage costs a team PENNANTS AND PLAYOFFS.

And, guess what, he'll not just be aware of those things, he will deeply drill down and analyze, analyze, analyze to figure out WHY that happened and HOW to fix it.  

Why, for instance, an Amed Rosario would hit a measly .200 at home and robust .300 on the road, and not be the only regular Mets hitter with such a gaping home/away disparity.

In my recent article on the subject, a copy of which I sent to Brodie Van Wagenen (and hopefully he received and read), I pointed out these simply unacceptable hometown results.  

And I postulated (without analysis, just surmising with my analytical mind) that much of the hitting drought at Citifield might be due to the ball's lack of carry for much of the season, cutting down long flies and turning what would otherwise be hits into long outs.

I also surmised (without analysis) that visiting hitters would not suffer the cumulative effect of hitting in a tough Citifield environment since they only play there several games a year.  The Mets' home hitters, though, would get deflated  over the course of a long season, seeing balls snagged that ought to be doubles or homers.  At least that is how I would feel if it were happening to me.  

Instead of being psyched to hit at home, I'd be wondering when I'd lose another extra base hit.

Even though the fences were already moved in twice, my suggested solution (without in depth analytics) was to make the fence in dead center curve, and not be parallel to the plate; have the CF depth moved in from 408 to 400; get rid of the outward dip in the bullpen fence in right field; and curve in and shorten the corners somewhat.

The above are simple, cheap fixes for 2020 - quite inexpensive to do - and perhaps, if done, would be a great help to the hitters and their psyches, without our pitchers suffering as much as our hitters would gain.  

Yes, pitchers' ERAs might climb a bit - but so would their win totals, and my guess is they would gladly make that trade.

Adam Guttridge, that's my take - hopefully, you will see this.

Maybe my surmising is all wrong - I am confident that you will find an answer to the "lack of home field advantage" dilemma.

Whether you agree with my or not, I feel confident you will come up with solutions to PROVIDE THIS TEAM WITH A REAL AND SUSTAINABLE HOME FIELD ADVANTAGE.

Of course, I realize that analytics are not just about field dimensions.  I think the analytics will improve the Mets on all levels (batting average, scouting, etc.).  

If the Mets don't do better in 2019, I will see my analyst!