Tom Brennan - THOUGHTS ON KEON BROXTON
One might ask, "The Mets already have Juan Lagares. Isn't Keon Broxton just his outfield clone? Isn't he surplus?"
IMO - Not a clone...not surplus.
Interestingly, in what can be considered charismatic Keon's last full season in the majors in 2017, Broxton had offensive numbers remarkably similar to 2018 Dominic Smith:
Smith in 2018 was .210/.259/.420 in 149 plate appearances., with a K every 3.15 times up.
Broxton in 2017 was .220/.299/.420 in 463 PAs, with a K every 2.65 times up.
Now, of course, let's not ignore Broxton Circa 2018.
Broxton for the Brewers was .179/.281/.410 in about 90 plate appearances. In AAA, he was .254/.323/.421 in 82 games, with 119 Ks in 334 PAs. Not overwhelming in 2018.
Offensively, we can conclude this much:
His K rate is crazy high, and that leads to low batting averages and his marginalization as a major leaguer.
His speed, though, is stellar and sizzling:
34 of 39 steals in sporadic playing time in 2018 in the minors and majors.
And his on base % career-wise shows that his low average is less than a true indicator of his ability to put that speed to good use by getting on base:
Majors: .313 OBP (lower lately)
Minors: .335 OBP
Reaching for comparisons, the 2009 Arizona 3rd rounder seems like a better version of former high K Mets minor leaguer Champ Stuart, with more power and hitting ability. Or Travis Taijeron, but a whole lot faster and better defensively.
All 3 have a real K flaw, but "K Brox" has offsetting tools to make him a major league consideration.
Most folks see K Brox as a platoon guy and late inning pinch runner and defensive replacement.
As a platoon player, how would he hit lefties? Let's look at his major league career, spanning 246 PAs.
Yep, lefty or righty, minors or majors, he strikes out a lot - but his MLB career vs. lefties has been surprisingly pretty decent: .234/.350/.440. A guy who has slugged .440 vs. lefties and gotten on base 35% of the time, and who has superior speed, is someone to not underestimate.
Defensively, folks say he is good or better than prime time Juan Lagares. Which certainly helps keep him in the majors as much as he has been to date despite the Ks (2.038 service years).
That said, he seems to be a worthwhile addition as a 5th OF reserve. The idea of Broxton and Lagares in the outfield in the 8th and 9th inning of games where the Mets lead by a run or two and have Familia and Diaz in relief seems, to me, to be quite comforting and solid.
And...maybe Chili Davis can get Broxton to cut down on his Ks.
Given Broxton's power and speed, a substantial reduction in Ks (a big if, and easier said than done) could propel Broxton into being a good major league starting outfielder.
Overall, I like trying him as a 5th outfielder. But not as a frequent contributor, unless his K rate can move closer to a major league norm.
12 comments:
Brox, Raj D & Tebow are your Syracuse OF.
That's a lot of speed and charisma for Syracuse, Hobie.
The job here is to win baseball games, right?
Let us say it is the bottom of the 9th and our lead off singles.
You pinch run this guy... let him steal second... and score on another single.
That is the true value of this guy.
I think he was a depth signing, plain and simple.
He also brings two things to the table (speed and defense) that are valuable
off the bench, late in games.
I agree that he is a nice 5th OF'er.
i meant to say depth "trade", not signing.
Superior speed, superior D, big power, hole in bat.
Did he bring wood putty to Spring Training?
Excellent point about Chili. Broxton is a perfect student for him. With his defense and speed, anything adequate offensively in terms of on-base and reduced Ks keeps him in the bigs and makes him a very valuable piece. He would see action in many games, even when he doesn’t start. I really hope he buys in and can make the adjustment.
TP, if Broxton could cut his Ks down about a third, he'd be a very good back up or even starting outfielder - but he has always been high-high-high K, majors and minors.
It will be an interesting challenge for Chili. FIX BROX
Broxton is pre arb in 2019, legares has a 9.5mm option for 2020. He was brought in to replace legares next year. If legares is any good and healthy this year he can be traded at 9.5 isnt outragous for a top flight defensive cf. I really liked this trade for the Mets. it was thinking ahead.
Broxton is infectious with his enthusiasm and the way he plays the game. I predict he will have a loyal fanbase very quickly. Also, he is out of options, so he's on the roster. Carve it in stone.
He is infectious, for sure.
It was good thinking. Brox is what the Mets thought Champ Stuart might become.
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