By the time you read this article, the Mets will be roughly one week into their Spring Training cycle and they will also have several "games" under their collective belts. I try not to read too much into Spring Training statistics and performances since players are likely working on fundamentals and other aspects of their game and straight wins and losses are secondary.
However, you can start to get a glimpse into how the team's 25 man roster may look once Spring Training is over and the team heads north for the regular season. There are a few complicating factors, such as early injuries (Brandon Nimmo, Jed Lowrie), along with the likely "service time manipulation" that will take place for a certain slugging first baseman. But, it is still a worthwhile exercise, in my opinion.
**On a side note, is it just me or does the team seem to have a bit of an injury "curse" hanging over their heads? It might be coincidence, or even something much more sinister, but can we catch a bit of a break already? Injuries galore, not to mention unusual "under performances" (Jason Bay) have been all too consistent of late and it has started early this year with the aforementioned injured players. Perhaps an exorcism is in order?
Back to our original topic.......here is my take on what the Mets' Opening Day roster might look like (players in bold are "locks" for a position, while regular text indicates a "battle" for the listed position);
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| PC -Ed Delany |
C1 - RAMOS
1B - FRAZIER (subject to change, pending Alonso's arrival)
2B - CANO
SS - ROSARIO
3B - LOWRIE (if healthy, if not, then maybe McNeil or Davis)
LF - McNEIL
CF - NIMMO
RF - CONFORTO
C2 - D'Arnaud, Mesoraco, Nido
CI - Davis, Smith, Rivera
MI - Guillorme, Hechavarria, Herrera, Espinosa, Cecchini?
OF4 - Lagares, Broxton, Blanco, Davis, Liriano
OF5/UTIL - One additional slot,depending on how Mickey crafts his bench
SP1 - DEGROM
SP2 - SYNDERGAARD
SP3 - WHEELER
SP4 - MATZ
SP5 - Vargas, Dowdy, Flexen, Lockett, Oswalt
LRR - Gsellman, Smith, Dowdy
LRL - Zamora, Avilan, Wilson
MRR - LUGO
MRL - Avilan, Zamora, Wilson
SUR - FAMILIA
SUL - Wilson, Zamora, Avilan
CL - DIAZ
Some basic observations;
1. Lowrie's status will have a pretty big impact on the roster. IF he is unable to start the season with the team, then there will be quite a bit of shuffling that takes place, plus someone like Dominic Smith getting one last shot.
2. Similar situation with Nimmo, although his injury is not as serious and he is supposed to be back much sooner. IF he is not back in time for the start of the year, then someone like Lagares or Broxton may be moved to the starting lineup and a fringe player (Blanco, Davis, LIriano) might make the club.
3. Pete "The Pounder" Alonso will likely be on the big league roster within a few weeks, which will impact the bench as Frazier will no longer be in the every day lineup. Should Pete make the roster out of Spring Training, then that issue will be decided in Port St Lucie.
4. ALL of the bench spots are in a state of flux! The upcoming games will have a large say in how the bench is configured. I would focus on players that offer value (multiple positions) OR a specific skill (speed, power or defense), as in inside track on figuring this out. The middle infield spot is the most wide open, but my money is on Adeiny Hechavarria at this point.
5. The fifth starter's spot is also up in the air, in my opinion. I think Vargas has the inside track, but that is not a guarantee. The rest of the contenders lack any sort of pedigree, but what if someone like Rule V pick Kyle Dowdy is "lights out" for the month of March and gets the nod? Or, if BVW capitalizes on the depressed value of the free agent market and brings in a Gio Gonzalez, or Dallas Keuchel?
6. The bull pen is looking pretty solid and positioning is the only major issue left to resolve. I think Justin Wilson becomes your late inning lefty, with Luis Avilan and Daniel Zamora filling in as situational lefties and/or long relief lefties, as needed (that is assuming they carry three left handed pitchers in the bull pen).
We will need to keep an eye on this topic as Spring Training proceeds towards the end of March, since things can change dramatically from week to week.
What's your take?
5 comments:
I have never seen so many guys grasping for so few Mets spots.
Several of those guys have significant big league pedigree, too.
It is going to be something to see how it all sorts out.
Right now I assume both Lowrie, Frazier, Rivera and d'Arnaud start the season on the DL. So I would pencil in Davis at 3B, Smith at 1B, Alonso taking in the sights of mid-state NY.
You need some bench players here, but here's where it gets tricky. Espinosa and Hechavarria both stand to earn a lot more if they are on the big league roster. I'm curious to see how Guillorme performs throughout the spring because he cossts minimum wage, music to Wilpon ears.
Assuming your have the starting outfield of some combination of McNeil, Conforto and Nimmo correct, then Broxton and Lagares are your spare outfielders.
I'm banking on Mesoraco to be the spare catcher.
That would be four bench players thus far -- Guillorme (if he performs), Mesoraco and the two outfielders. They'll likely go with an eight-man pen for the first few weeks until they deem the starters sufficiently stretched out to go more than 5 innings. That will also allow them to sneak some players off the 40-man roster later after other clubs' rosters are already set. Remember, you'll need to create a spot for Pete Alonso.
Yes, it's possible that Yoenis Cespedes and Franklyn Kilome start the year on the 60-day injury list. Even so, there are other non-roster players worth a look who might need those spots beyond Mesoraco and Alonso.
I see J.D. Davis as a lock to come to Queens
Just Dastardly Davis looks like a win sooooo fa. Funny, Jed Lowrie could become this year's Todd Frazier, if we suddenly need to find JD playing time, that's if JD doesn't revert to AAAA Junk Destroyer Davis. His swing looks good: not too slow or long. Ya know, I wonder if just watching Cano bat is helping our guys.
I wrote this before Frazier's injury, so that further complicates things.
Maybe Dom gets one more shot in the form of a three or four week try out until Frazier is back OR Pete moves in?
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