Tom Brennan - MANNY BY THE NUMBERS
So, the Padres broke their vow of poverty and made Manny Machado filthy rich: 10 years, $300 mill.
Yeah - but is he worth it?
Somehow, let me start off by saying that I think almost no one under any circumstances is worth a 10 year contract, and I hope the Mets never offer one.
But is Manny worth it?
Consider his career road splits:
2,109 plate appearances, and his split is:
.271/.319/.442.
Huh? THAT is performance worthy of 10 years, $300 million??
Back in his former cozy home in Camden Yards, his career split, though, is notably higher in all 3 categories, especially power, where he hit about 50% more homers than he has on the road:
.295/.353/.534.
In 2016, ESPN Senior Writer Tristan Cockcroft did an article in which he ranked Camden Yards the 7th best park to hit in, as follows:
Dimensions: 333' (7')-364' (7')-410' (7')-373' (7')-318' (25')
Camden Yards' power alleys are among the most advantageous in baseball, but it's best for left-handed power, despite the 25-feet fence in right field. The short outfield fences elsewhere -- seven feet everywhere else -- have much to do with it.
San Diego, though, where Machado is going?
ESPN's Tristan ranked their park 29th, saying:
ESPN's Tristan ranked their park 29th, saying:
Dimensions: 336' (8')-390' (8')-396' (8')-391' (8')-322' (8')
Once the most pitching-friendly ballpark in baseball, Petco's fence adjustments following the 2012 season helped bring it closer to the pack. That was especially true for left-handed hitters, who scarcely stood a chance in the venue's early days; this is actually now a neutral to slightly hitter-friendly ballpark in terms of home runs, and it's almost league average in terms of hits (0.964 factor) and extra-base hits (0.956). But the main reason that Petco is still regarded an extreme pitchers' park is its strikeout potential; its 1.058 factor is sixth-highest in the game.
So one would expect that Manny's hitting in his new home may slide to much closer to his decent, but far from great, road stats.
Let's say he does slide to roughly his road level of performance - he might be expected to hit:
.275/.325/.450
If that is what happens, is he worth 10 years, $300 million?
Compare to 2018 Brandon Nimmo, who hit worse at home in challenging Citifield and nonetheless did this:
.263/.404/.483
So, again, I ask, is Manny worth the Money? The Padres will have Manny, Manny years to ponder that question.
5 comments:
Good stuff, Tom.
His splits are a bit concerning, even though Petco Park has become a bit more hitter friendly over the years. He was a solid, but less spectacular player once he moved to LA last year, right?
A bigger concern is that most players that finally "get paid" usually fail to justify their new contract. I am not saying they crash to earth, but they typically underachieve a bit (at least when compared to expectations and the expectations for MM will be sky high).
Totally hypothetical, but he is already rumored to be a bit "difficult" to deal with at times. What happens if he starts off a bit slowly and the pressure of his new deal starts to get to him?
Manny is a very good player, but that contract is CRAZY!
Mike, Manny will have a lot less pressure if he struggles in SD than in NY. Think about the A Rod circus later in his career.
We need more Mannys in the game
More Mannys, less moneys
More Mannys minus the PEDs Oh, that was another Manny. Nevermind.
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