While there are a few battles to be fought in Spring
Training, unlike many other years most of the roster spots are already fairly
well defined. Some are carved in stone,
some are merely written in ink. However,
I think most would agree that the starting 8 looks something like this:
1B Todd
Frazier
2B Robinson
Cano
SS Amed
Rosario
3B Jed Lowrie
C Wilson
Ramos
LF Michael
Conforto
CF Jeff
McNeil
RF Brandon
Nimmo
You can quibble about where the outfielders align, but
barring unforeseen injuries, slumps or McNeil needing a GPS to track fly balls,
that’s pretty much what you’re going to get.
Then you have to consider the players who will hold reserve
roles for the Mets. That’s not quite as
clear. Right now the contenders are:
Juan Lagares
Keon Broxton
J.D. Davis
Travis d’Arnaud
T.J. Rivera
Dominic Smith
Luis Guillorme
Tomas Nido
Then you have the non-roster bunch, including:
Arismendy Alcantara
Gavin Cecchini
Gregor Blanco
Rajai Davis
Dilson Herrera
Devin Mesoraco
Two of the prospective benchwarmers on the 40-man roster are
in injury recovery limbo – Travis d’Arnaud and T.J. Rivera. No one is sure if they will be ready to start
the season on schedule or not In d’Arnaud’s
case, it’s easy to push either Tomas Nido or Devin Mesoraco into the backup
catcher role. Nido’s slight edge is that
he’s on the 40-man roster already and Mesoraco’s edge is that even at
.222/10/30 he is a monster offensively compared to Nido (plus the pitchers
enjoy having him behind the dish).
The two defensive stud outfielders, Juan Lagares and Keon
Broxton, are pretty much guaranteed a role so long as they are healthy. Broxton is out of options so it’s unlikely he
would be demoted to AAA and risk losing him after trading for him.
Todd Frazier is likely the starter at 1B with J.D. Davis,
Robinson Cano and even Travis d’Arnaud capable of manning the spot in a
pinch. That makes me think that Dominic
Smith is fighting an uphill battle since even Frazier is likely relegated to
the bench once they promote Peter Alonso.
With Jeff McNeil and Jed Lowrie capable of playing 2B should
Cano need a day off, they’re covered there. McNeil can also back up Lowrie at 3B (as can J.D. Davis).
Shortstop is something of a worry since Lowrie has not
played there in quite some time but he’s the only one currently on the team who
could slot in should Rosario need a day off.
Luis Guillorme is on the 40-man roster, has made surprisingly consistent
contact throughout his minor league career and flashed some excellent defensive
skills, but he’s not done so in the majors and appears to have fallen out of
favor. Signing Danny Espinosa was
something of a head scratcher, but he is a decent shortstop and could
potentially leapfrog Guillorme assuming they kick someone off the 40-man
roster.
Going with the assumptions that neither d’Arnaud nor Rivera
are ready to start the season, my bench would include:
Broxton
Lagares
Guillorme
J.D. Davis
Mesoraco
My thinking is that Nido needs to get into a groove playing
every day. He could do that at AAA. Guillorme is less expensive than Espinosa and
is already on the 40-man roster which will need to have the walking wounded like Yoenis Cespedes and Franklyn Kilome remove to make room for
Mesoraco. J.D. Davis does have options
left, but considering he can play both corner infield positions, corner
outfield positions and pitch, his versatility works in his favor (plus BVW
needs to justify giving up three players to get him). Should they surprisingly opt for an 6-man
instead of 7-man bullpen, then Dominic Smith gets one last gasp of major league
life.
Your thoughts?
9 comments:
Some upset bench warmers coming your way. Lots more on-the-margin guys than past years.
I see Todd Frazier has a bobblehead day set up - so Mr. .213 almost has to be on the opening day roster. Thankfully, his day is April 6, so he can be a benchwarmer - or even released - if his flirtation with .200 continues for a third straight year. I still have not ruled out TJ Rivera (career .304) instead of Todd. if Rivera is recovered. I like .300 more than .200, I don't know about you.
Similarly, I do not want Nido there if he cannot figure out a way to hit at least .230. My preference, absent a trade, is TDA at # 2 if he is healthy. He could start the season on the DL, which would allow Mesoraco to be the back up, at least for a while.
Nido can stay in the minors and keep upping his hitting skills. Forget what he did with the Mets last year (very little), his on base % in the minors in 2017 and 2018 was under .300. Do we really want that? Mesoraco was .221/.303/.397 IN THE MAJORS - MUCH BETTER THAN NIDO OFFENSIVELY.
Lagares was .339/.375/.390 in limited ABs before he got hurt. I see him as a starting OF vs. lefties, and defensive replacement. Broxton? Strikeout machine, but enough attributes to be a 5th OF, I guess.
I want J.D. Davis there. He could prove to be an everyday player on a winning team. Or a fine sub.
And Dominic Smith deserves a real chance if that picture I saw of the slim (yes, slim) Dominic Smith is truly him. If that was him, it appears he finally is coming ready to fight for his major league life, even if Alonso lurks. Maybe the NL adopts the DH next year - if Smith can really be serious and maximize his game, maybe in 2019 he is our first baseman against righty pitchers, and Alonso only a DH except at 1B when a lefty pitches. Those two have a major attractive "skill set" - both would be CHEAP.
My guess is that Lagares and Davis a
are locks and the Mets DFA d'Arnaud
At what D-Arnaud's salary for 2019 will be, $3.5 MM, seems he would be tradeable rather than a DFA if he has a good spring.
Some team would surely want him if he could throw as well (poorly) as 2017, hoping that he can replicate 2017 hitting: .244/.293/.443 with 57 RBIs in 376 PAs - to me, that is worth something. Those numbers hitting wise would have had him in the top 15-20 catchers in baseball offensively in 2018. So in 2017, he hit better than 10-15 teams' starting catchers.
And his 57 RBIs would have had him tied for 8th best...and 5 of those 7 ahead of him had more at bats.
Best hitter as a catcher in 2018 by far, based on average? Wilson Ramos!
TdA is BUC
Conforto, Nimmo, McNeil & Lagares share the OF in some rotation.
Dom & Frazier share 1B until a home for Todd is found elsewhere & Alonso continues to rake.
That leaves two UT's (Cousin Vinny?): JD & TJR.
Broxton, Guikkorme & Mesoraco await an eventual (& inevitable)) OF/IF/C DL stint which could be day 1 for TdA & TJR.
Hunch: Dom arrives big-time; Tebow & Giminez in September.
Let's get going.
Interesting.......while having depth is a good thing, it also clouds the roster decisions (at least on the margins).
I would try to jettison any expensive veteran that can be reasonably replaced by a cheaper alternative. For example,
D'Arnaud/Mesoraco (back up catcher), Lagares/Broxton (4th outfielder), Frazier/Davis (corner infielder...but may have to
wait until Alonso is ready).
Add up the "savings" and you could make a run at someone like Gio or even Dallas Keuchel.
I don't see much difference in production with the above listed changes....why pay more for it?
Mike, Lagares seems a much better hitter than Broxton, though, if of course he is not on the DL. Less power, better hitter. I prefer better hitters.
My only concern with, say, dumping TDA is, if one or both of the retained catchers get hurt. Nido just can't hit, until proven otherwise. Do we really want a hole in the line up? I'd keep Ramos and TDA, send Devin to the minors, and it is 50% likely one of them will be injured by Memorial Day and bring Mesoraco up (if, of course, his contract permits it).
Mazeika might be a better option than Nido, honestly.
Lagares is a singles hitter with modest speed. I'm not buying into his 30-day hitting from last year.
IF and that's a HUGE IF, you could find a taker for Lagares you have to do it.
My money is on Alonso getting the most starts at 1B by the time the season closes.
I think Frazier gets a shot to open the season -- Mets save a year by stalling on Alonso -- Todd has flashes and fades -- and Alonso becomes the guy.
Frazier released or traded by mid-June.
If dArnoud is healthy, he's a great backup for Ramos. Nido is #4 catcher at this point -- backing up 3 injury prone guys.
In the outfield, we'll see how JM fields out there. Lagares & Broxton seem redundant.
Jimmy P
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