Mike Freire - So, How Does The Rotation Look?
Good Morning, Mets' fans!
Well, now that the Super (Snore?) Bowl, we are another week closer to the start of Spring Training. Living in the Sunshine State, the weather has been absolutely gorgeous of late, so the teams that train here are in for a treat.
High temperatures around 70 degrees with low humidity and a light breeze. Perfect baseball weather and much better then the dreaded Polar Vortex.
High temperatures around 70 degrees with low humidity and a light breeze. Perfect baseball weather and much better then the dreaded Polar Vortex.
As we move closer and closer to the start of the 2019 season, I started thinking about the starting rotation which many fans would pick as the strength of the team, right? Heck, there isn't much debate about the top four arms outside of the order that you can put them together.
Jake DeGrom, Noah Syndergaard, Zack Wheeler and Steven Matz
Short of something unforeseen (knock on wood), those four will be the foundation of our pitching staff and they will dictate just how successful the season will be. Not to mention, they also represent one of the better rotations in all of baseball. But, what about the fifth starter, you might ask?
Granted, your fifth starter is slightly less important since they will likely get skipped from time to time, or help out the bull pen where appropriate. Actually, I think your fourth and fifth starters are more valuable over the course of the regular season, as opposed to a playoff setting when things get more condensed.
BUT, you have to make the playoffs first without nuking your bull pen in the process, so quality pitchers in the back end of your rotation are still important.
For the moment (unless Brodie strikes before this article gets posted), one of the following pitchers will likely get tasked with filling the fifth starter's role; Jason Vargas (current favorite, in pencil of course), Kyle Dowdy (Rule V pick up), Chris Flexen, Corey Oswalt OR a yet to be named pitcher.
I think the last spot in the rotation is pretty much Jason Vargas' to lose, at this point (unless he is moved in a trade or to the bullpen). Most fans are probably a bit underwhelmed with that choice and there isn't a lot to get exited about on the rest of the aforementioned list, either.
So, what gives, right? Do the Mets pull a "Rays move" and just use a bunch of middle relievers every fifth day? Or, do they crack open the piggy bank just a bit farther and add another starter via free agency?
There's been a lot of chatter about Gio Gonzalez and how the Mets are "keeping tabs" on his free agency which is interesting. He is a crafty, left handed veteran and depending on the cost, could represent an upgrade over the status quo.
Consider the following;
Jason Vargas (36 years old) has a lifetime record of 92-90, along with a 4.27 ERA, a 1.31 WHIP and approximately 16 WAR over 1,493 career innings pitched.
Gio Gonzalez (33 years old) has a lifetime record of 127-97, along with a 3.69 ERA, a 1.31 WHIP and approximately 27.5 WAR over 1,814 innings pitched.
Keep in mind, Jason Vargas is already signed for the 2019 season for 8 million dollars, along with a 2 million dollar buy out for the 2020 season, so we can basically call that a 10 million dollar commitment. Not sure what the currently available Gio Gonzalez is asking for (he made 12 million last year), but he is three years younger and may want some sort of security.
If you were Brodie, do you sign Gio Gonzalez as your fifth starter and move Jason Vargas to the bullpen or is he not enough of an upgrade, all things considered? Feel free to comment and make sure you add what type of contract you would offer Gio Gonzalez IF you answered "yes" above.
8 comments:
Ain't my dough, but I add Gio.
One more arm could set the team up to where there is real MLB quality in the pitching end of things for the Mets, from Jake down to the last bullpen guy.
If Gio adds 2-3 more wins to the Mets' 2019 win total, that could make the difference.
I'm a Go on Gio.
I don't know so much it's an exercise in adding wins as it is in eliminating the automatic losses every 5th day as was the case with the first 4 months+ of Jason Vargas. Unless you can find a stupid, brain dead moron who wants pitchers with losing pedigrees and big money, you're stuck with Vargas. Wait, maybe if they called Oakland...
Passing thought (not filly vetted)...
if you got 3 (max) IP on day 5 from each of Gsellman, Dowdy, Vargas & Lugo, what kind of innings could they be tapped for on days 1 thru 4?
BTW, although a reactionary purist, I do like the "3-batter (proposed) rule for RP.
I think Brodie is in a tough spot with $10 million on the line for Vargas.
Yes, sure, he'd likely love to swap out Vargas for Gio (though he, too, can be quite erratic).
I felt the move all last season was to move Vargas to the pen, see how it works. After all, $8 for a reliever is not insane. They were paying Blevins $7, I believe. However, management did not do that; in fact, they openly supported Vargas.
Who is not a terrible pitcher, btw. I personally think he could go either way in 2019. And could even be better than Gio.
The Mets do need more reinforcements in AAA. I think those fringe guys are out there and will be signed. Gio is going to want to spot. I have a hard time thinking the Mets have those resources to dump Vargas and even stick him in the pen.
Maybe Brodie can put a package together of Vargas, Frazier, and Lagares, helping Mets dump $25 million in the process. But I guess not! Moving Bruce and Swarzak was miracle enough.
Jimmy P
I honestly think this will really come back to bite them if they don't sign another legitimate starter. Chances are extremely high that one of the existing 5 is going to get hurt. The backup options we would rely on now are either very underwhelming or would likely weaken the bullpen. Plugging this hole would really set them up to have solid depth up and down the roster. Personally I think signing a guy like Gio makes us easy favorites but I'm probably a bit biased. I just think out how well the Mets finished out the season last year with our young hitters performing and our starters dealing and then we significantly improved upon that (assuming they get McNeil in the lineup every day)
Another intriguing option would be to upgrade from Vargas, right past Gio and entertain Dallas Keuchel!
That is likely outside of the budget, for sure.....but, that would make our
rotation even better.
Hey, you never know what folks will sign for as free agency dies down and the season gets underway, right?
"A foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of a narrow mind." And with that I'm having second thoughts about Boras-price tagged Gio, one year older, slower, and tattered. Maybe spend less on two or three different profiles: young, ok WHIP, stellar stuff. Not Sandy-types but Major leaguers. Maybe someone wants us for a change!
If I had could pick Harper, Machado or Keuchel I would go for Keuchel right now. It would make the Mets rotation, and probably the pitching side of the team in general, go from one of the best, to the clear cut number 1 in MLB. With a stadium like citifield as your home part this is like tripling down on your strength.
On a serious note he would be the most attainable of the 3 FA I mentioned, and good pitchers should want to pitch in citi field. Sign him for 3 years 20 mil with a 10 mil buyout option for year 4. Best rotation in baseball... done. If Wheeler leaves after or regresses next year it would be even better to have him.
Post a Comment