9/24/20

Tom Brennan - METS FANS PRACTICE MATH A LOT



I was really, really good at math in school.  

Maybe you were, too.

Which comes in handy as a Mets fan. 

Because we Mets fans always find ourselves calculating neat stuff, like:

How many games before we get eliminated this year, too.

I'm good at calculating that now - I've done it about 50 seasons in Mets history.

And the best part is, until the team actually IS eliminated, you can calculate how close the Mets are to being eliminated EVERY SINGLE DAY!  What a treat.

The fine Mack's Mets writer John from Albany has been trumpeting all year his desire for a team that can hustle, play D, and pitch.

He got his wish this week.

The Rays came to town.  The Rays do all that.  Well, too.

The Rays overcame a slow season start and several early pitching injuries and smoked the Al East anyway - with hustle, D, and fine pitching.

The Mets, meanwhile, got more crappy pitching, 8 runs of crappy, nothing surprising there.

And THREE homers - wheee! - but they lost by 3 anyway.  Home runs are a lot less thrilling when you don't win. (Hey, not to go all negative, so let me say: that was some bomb from Dom, half way back in the upper deck, and (gulp!) a bomb from Andres Gimenez, showing definitively he is NOT the next slap hitting Bud Harrelson).

56 games so far, 79 HRs (check), 272 runs (check), .274 (check).

Still under .500.  Way under .500.

The Big 3 (Conforto, Alonso and Smith) struck out 3 times each in this must-have game. Time for some math again...3+3+3=9.  

9 Ks from 3 players is a lot - ask any mathematician.

Pitching?  A 4.80 team ERA, despite the 2.00 combined ERA of Jake and Edwin.

Tampa? A dandy 3.64 ERA.

When I got home, the Mets trailed 4-2.  4 minus 2 meant they trailed by 2 runs, I calculated, as the Mets announcers hopefully discussed the Wild Card situation.  But to make that discussion relevant, the Mets had to WIN...but to win, when you subtract the Rays score from the Mets score, you need to calculate a positive number.  As in MORE runs than your opponent.

But the Mets were 3 runs negative.  LOOOOOSERS!

When they lost 8-5 last night, the announcer noted that the Mets had finished their home schedule and now had 7 losing seasons at home out of 12 seasons at Citifield.  

The Math Man in me was tempted to recheck those numbers, since how can any team have 7 losing home seasons out of 12, but then I realized no calculations were necessary - yes indeed, the Mets had defied all fundamental logic regarding home field advantages, by only having a winning home record in 5 of the last 12 seasons.  Last I checked, in fact, I think that would have the Mets with a worse record at home than on the road over TWELVE seasons.

Anyway, I gotta go, but Tampa finished the night # 1.  They understand DIVISION.  They're mathematicians.

The Mets' season performance, meanwhile, could best be described as # 2.   Speaking of # 2, whom will the Mets "dump" in the next few months.

Depending on whom, and whom they acquire, I may start calculating the Mets elimination next year around April 1. Why wait?

7 comments:

Mack Ade said...

Hey... I got your Mets math...

Chance of making the playoffs after this series...

0%

Tom Brennan said...

Mack, we had 1969, we had gets by Buckner. They want us to believe miracles will happen.

Making the playoffs is miracle-exempt. EARN IT.

Let's limit the miracle expectations to the post-season.

They're in, or they're out - let me know if/when eliminated - I refuse to count.

I am only interested in elimination numbers like we experienced in 2015 - counting down until the NATS were eliminated and we clinched first place.

Gary Seagren said...

We need a top down overhaul. Hey the Rays have been in the playoffs 4 times since 2010 and us once because I don't count the joke that was 2016. I'm a Met Jet AND Giant ( happy with 5 Superbowls and 4 wins) fan and the upside for me is were not as bad as my Jets but at least I have real hope with new ownership this will be great off season.

Gary Seagren said...

I have a connection with Adam Guttridge through my son-in-law and hope to talk to him next week. If any of you have questions for him let me know either on this site or thru my email which is: seagren@verizon.net

Tom Brennan said...

Gary, please pass that on to Mack to make sure he sees it - that could be a great avenue.

And yes, the Rays (and the Braves) really show how poorly the Mets have constructed teams. Losing d'Arnaud was huge - in 2019 and 2020. Assuming he'd have been healthy here, the Mets make the playoffs both years with TDA.

In fairness, losing Thor and Stro, and Matz being an utter disaster, would have been hard to plan for.

Gary Seagren said...

Tom true but not signing Wheeler is on Jeffy and 5y $118 is value in this mkt and that alone cost us the post season this year

Tom Brennan said...

A good team re-signs Wheeler, no doubt.

This team derailed after 2015 by not re-signing Murphy. It could have rolled for years otherwise.