Reese Kaplan -- In First Place By the Slimmest Margin Possible

Well, that Marlins series pretty much was a gut punch to the many Mets fans still willing to believe there was a chance the Mets would hang onto first place as they trudged their way towards the end of September.  For a team that is not renowned for hitting nor pitching, somehow the Marlins won three out of four by demonstrating that the Mets weren’t exactly competent in either of these areas themselves.

Thursday's game was doubly destructive to one’s psyche when newcomer Rich Hill didn’t allow a single earned run during his starting assignment, yet even that single unearned run looked like a Mount Everest that needed to be overcome by the Mets’ weak bats.  It’s embarrassing to have a team with hitters like Javy Baez, Jeff McNeil, Pete Alonso, Dom Smith and others, yet the idea they could put a runner on the bags and then do what was necessary to advance him seemed like some kind of Hollywood storybook fantasy.  

Gathering together a group of Mets fans for our semi-regular Thursday night chat, we were almost equally divided over what is a bigger problem going forward for the Mets -- hitting or pitching.  On the former, well, despite the nice RBI totals by Alonso and Baez, no one in the lineup has the kind of numbers that actually inspires fear into opposing hurlers.  Little by little we have seen McNeil climb out of the Mendoza territory he was in for much of the year, but if J.D. Davis or Brandon Nimmo or Luis Guillorme were not in the lineup, then there’s not a single hitter who will go to sleep at night thinking to himself, “Yeah, that’s the kind of season I’ve always wanted!”

On the flip side, however, the grossly overused bullpen is certainly starting to show its own vulnerabilities with Jeurys Familia in particular looking like he’s forgotten whatever it was that had been working for him until recently.  Edwin Diaz wouldn’t have been in this game even if he was still in town, but we’ve seen more bad than good from many of the assortment of righties and lefties making their way to the mound when all is already lost.

While the relief pitching is most definitely a concern going forward, it’s the starting pitching that has cracked through the very thin ice on which they have resided for most of the year.  We all know about the problems Jacob deGrom has had with his body.  Taijuan Walker seems to have hit a wall from perhaps what would be too many innings on his arm after being a mostly part-time pitcher for the past several years.  Marcus Stroman has been a bit up and down lately, though the up side of his performance is going to correspond to a huge uptick in his paycheck when free agency arrives at year’s end.  The league finally caught up to previously unscathed Tylor Megill in his last start as well.  The jury is still out on recovering starter Carlos Carrasco, but 2022 is going to be a major need for an overhaul.

It would seem that Noah Syndergaard, Marcus Stroman and Rich Hill are destined to see what free agency can do to help them prepare for their post-baseball life through inflated paychecks.  That would leave the Mets with two recovering pitchers in deGrom and Carrasco, plus the sophomore jinx year for Tyler Megill.  Even if all three do exceptionally well, it would appear that they are going to be a few arms short.

Yes, the team has a plethora of people who should be recovered by the time spring training rolls around, but Jordan Yamamoto, Joey Lucchesi, David Peterson and the others have not done enough thus far in their careers to make you feel confident that they are the answers for the 4th, 5th and reserve starting pitching roles that need to be filled.  That issue suggests the Mets may need to be active in the trade marketplace or in free agency, the former costing player resources from the Mets and the latter simply costing.  

Now take a look at the offensive side of the roster and it isn’t any prettier.  You have Pete Alonso, Jeff McNeil, Francisco Lindor, Dom Smith, Brandon Nimmo, James McCann and (gulp) Robinson Cano pretty much guaranteed spots on the list of returning regulars.  Gone from the mix will likely be Michael Conforto and he will need to be replaced.  If you worked in-house and shifted McNeil to the outfield to open up a position for Cano, this group doesn’t necessarily prove to have more run scoring ability than what is on the field in 2021.  

So it’s time to think in a near postseason campaign to wonder aloud if breaking up the core is going to cross the minds of the folks making those kinds of decisions.  If another team offered you their number two starter even-up for Jeff McNeil, wouldn’t you have to consider it?  The same question arises about current center fielder Brandon Nimmo.  They are surprisingly close in their career stats, from the number of ABs, their power, their RBIs, their stolen bases and their productivity stats (OBP, OPS and SLG).  Both are certainly good, but not All Star caliber.

To many people, Dom Smith is the one to go since he’s miscast as an outfielder.  In 2019 and 2020 he was surprisingly productive with his bat.  He can likely return to a first base assignment with another club that doesn’t have Pete Alonso blocking his position.  However, his 2021 numbers are not gaudy enough to get fair value in return.

Many say that it’s time to peddle J.D. Davis who can hit but can’t field.  There’s some truth to that assessment, but alone he’s not going to net much in return.  As part of a package he could likely help land players to fill Mets’ voids, but then a big right handed bat disappears, leaving a rather large hole in the Mets lineup.  

Last time around we analyzed whether or not the Mets would be replacing Luis Rojas as manager.  A lot of Zack Scott’s future rests on how the club finishes the season.  He was pushed into the front office out of necessity.  Sandy Alderson has seemingly tried to coach him on what needs to be done to succeed in the role, but given the turn the team has taken will he be lauded for the personnel he’s brought to help?  If they go with a new GM then it could be a package deal with a new manager coming along with whomever gets that spot.  

We’re all disappointed and bitter over this Marlins series which made the pessimistic outlook for 2022 a bit more front-of-mind than it should have been.  It would appear, however, that some of these observations are not that far afield.