Mel's back, because he loved to hit hard, unlike the Mets
As we approach another playoff-free Mets off season, I think it is worthwhile to ask:
Why Are The Mets Floundering Around .500?
And why are they about to miss the playoffs again?
Simple.
Going into Tuesday, a game under .500, they have scored 10 fewer runs than surrendered.
It is no accident, therefore, that other teams are far ahead of them. Going into Tuesday:
The Giants are a +182 in scoring and 44 games over .500.
Dodgers? +238, and 39 games over .500.
Braves? +100, and 10 games over .500.
Meanwhile, terrible teams have terrible results.
Arizona? -197, and 50 games below .500.
Baltimore? -258, and 51 games below .500.
A few teams defy the +/- runs odds.
The Yanks are just +28, yet are 16 games over .500.
The Red Sox? Just a +51, and yet 16 games over .500.
But typically, your net runs margin correlates closely to your win-loss record.
As is the case with our moribund Metsies.
Criticize the relievers, criticize the starters, (rightfully) criticize the manager, but the real culprit has been...
TA DA...ENVELOPE, PLEASE...
The hitters. The laggards. The season-long non-prolific.
Despite injuries, they have hit like garbage most of the year, and hence are about to be eliminated.
The Mets in fact have hit just .195 in the many games they've lost, and are scoring about 2.1 runs per games in those games they've lost.
And, of course, at home, they hit most times like New York City Sanitation Dept. garbage.
So it is no wonder they were, heading into Tuesday, a game under .500.
Fix the offense if you expect a different result.
All of the "plus" teams above score far more runs than the Mets.
The Mets need to be a +150 run team next year.
Or it will be another year of disappointment.
To answer the question I most often hear, I must reply: “Yes, the Mets DO suck.” Have a nice day.
11 comments:
To beat a dead horse, my brother told me Baez just missed a HR. Pete was robbed of a 2nd homer when he hit the ball to right field, right where the pen fence is deepest.
70 team homers at home, 93 on the road. May I suggest moving the fences in again as a way to help the hitters hit more and boost the team into the positive on runs scored?
Tom, I think you are right on. It has been very disappointing that the Mets have not had the starting pitching that was envisioned at the beginning of the year, but even if they did, the lack of run support would have yielded a similar result. Last night watching the Cardinals hit left me wondering "why can't we do that?". They strung together base hits, took advantage of openings left by the shift, and fed on each other to keep rallies going.
Can we trade for a hitting coach? :)
Yes Tom for what seems like the millionth time we hit a ball to the wall (and wow balls to the wall are where we are right now)and I agree lets bring em in. The problem also is the opposition hit's em into the 20th row so we need to figure it out. Last night was another great example of Baez over Lindor (I know I know we're stuck with him for 10 more years) Lindor swing's and misses at a pitch in dirt for strike 3 with men on and then Javy at least hit's one to the wall that's caught. There are certain player's who you want up in critical situation's like Chipper, Cabrera, Rendon and Mike Scioscia (sry but I had to throw him in) to name a few. Lindor has not been the money player you want up in pressure spots and for most of the rest of my life I have to hope I'm wrong. I also hope at some point in my life I'll find out why Stevie had to jump the gun and sign him to a contract that's twice as much as he would have to spend in the off season if he really wanted him as it just doesn't make sense for a man as smart as Cohen.
Oh and about player's coming up big in critical situation's I forgot the immortal Lars Nootbar sorry about that.
Paul and Gary, good points indeed. Gary, for every Mets HR 20 rows back, another ball is caught within two feet of the wall.
If you are negative in runs scored, you get run over….and don’t deserve a wild card.
Spot on, Tom.
The Mets' "expected record" based on their run differential is actually a game worse (71-76) then their actual record of 72-75. In other words, their record is exactly who they are. Our expectations were raised earlier this year due to a decent start (despite injuries and poor performances) AND being in the worst division in baseball.
Heck, the Braves are underperforming their expected record by five games and they are still in first place by 3.5 games over another underachieving squad (Phillies).
Steve Cohen (hopefully) can see that major changes are necessary in order to move foward in 2022.
An injection of some "grit" would be nice........outside of the Yankees series last week, this team is sleepwalking.
Mike, I was very disappointed we lost to the Yanks Saturday, and then went somnambulant vs. Cards. Yes, the Mets are lucky they are not 10+ games behind Braves.
ANOTHER very disappointing season. 19-31 in last 50. .500 ball over that stretch and the Mets most likely are in the playoffs.
Tom I think your looking at it wrong
It’s unfortunate we are not 10 games behind the Braves.
It awful that we were fooled that we were a good team because had this been the case before the trade deadline what could we have gained from trading Stroman loops conforto villar
Eddie, that is very true. Reminds me of the Victor Zambrano days. We were seemingly in it, then suddenly not. The way it has gone, a restructuring like the Bats did would have been great. Look at the Blue Jays. The Astros. Nothing better than young and lethal.
I guess I keep coming back to the same question in my mind:
Are the Mets a .500 (poor) club because they have terrible players and need to completely clean house or are the a .500 (poor) club because they collectively have not played/hit well at all.
I contend it is the latter.
On paper, most fans and many pundits predicted them to be at or near the top of the East with a very solid starting staff and a core of hitters coming off very good statistical years. The additions of May and Loup were considered good additions. The bench was deeper than recent memory with Villar and Pillar, and even Almora for defense.
Then the poor hitting started and the injuries piled up. As late as late June, this club looked like it had the character and players to overcome the shortcomings. When deGrom got hurt just before the all-star break and Lindor went down just after, it seems like the wind left the sails.
Even with the resurgence of Baez and the little bit of Lindor we have seen, the Mets still look rudderless. When they score, they gave up runs (9-0 lead dissolved?). They are still hitting into too many inning killing double plays and giving up too many early runs. When they get in the hole, they seem incapable of pulling back out.
My conclusion (ok, pre-conclusion) is that the problem is not the players, but the approach to hitting and some managing decisions. It seemed odd to me that Luis Rojas "nearly had a heart attack" (his words), when Jeff McNeil put down the bunt with the bases loaded. WHY? That is basic winning baseball. It beats the hell out of a 4-6-3 double play. It is exciting stuff and elevates play for all. It is a play that says "we are a team that will beat you any way we can". We just have not seen much of it and Rojas does not seem to have the imagination to do much else.
As I wrote in my 'what to do for 22' article earlier today, I think the starting pitching and infield specifically are just fine. Depth is a good thing, but if healthy, I'd take deGrom, Stroman, Carrasco, Walker, Syndergaard, Megill, with Peterson and co. as depth. I also suggested adding a free agent or two.
I will discuss the outfield and management in a subsequent piece. I am not quite so content there. (altho, sneak peek - I really hope Conforto comes back)
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