While the vast majority of fans obsess over the quality (or lack thereof) the Mets put into their starting rotation, come the 2022 season the bullpen is going to need some major work. There have been bright spots here and there, but there have been bruised and bloodied ones as well. Let's take a look at who is likely to be around next season and try to figure out what needs to be done.
About the only thing keeping Diaz vaguely in the fans accepted (if not good) graces is the fact that the players traded away to get him haven't done anything to make it look like it was a bad deal. Granted, his first year was horrific as he adjusted to a new league and the pressure of being the important young guy in the trade. He finished the 2019 season going an unimpressive 2-7 with a 5.59 ERA and with 48 games finished he only had 26 saves. This is the same guy who saved 57 the year before for the Mariners.
Flash forward to the shortened 2020 season and Diaz was more of what they had expected. He was 2-1 with a 1.75 ERA and 6 saves with a mind boggling 17.5 strikeouts per 9 IP. Despite how good he was, the negativity caused by his first season ran deep and many fans did not give him an iota of credit. He was striking people out like crazy but also walking quite a few.
Come 2021 and it was somewhere in between. The strikeouts were definitely there as was better control. He thus far has 29 saves, a 5-6 record and an OK but not great 3.81 ERA. There are times he's looked positively dominant and other times like hes' Pete Alonso's All Star Game Home Run Derby pitcher.
Love him or hate him, the fact is he still earns just $7 million, he's still just 27 years of age and doesn't become a free agent until 2023. Assuming he doesn't go the pitching equivalent of Michael Conforto, you'd think he'll be bearing down to have a monster 2022 season in anticipation of the big payday to set him up for life.
As much as most folks believe Lugo really wants to be a starting pitcher, the fact is he is much more effective out of the pen. Right now he's showing his usual quality stuff with a 4-2 record and a 3.07 ERA while striking out more than 10 per 9 IP. He's making $2.9 million this year and they have an arbitration season approaching before he too becomes a free agent in 2023. He'll be back.
Signed in the off-season to a two year deal worth $15.5 million, he's pretty much what they expected when they inked the contract. He's got a record of 7-3 with a 3.90 ERA which is better than his career average. He strikes out a high number of batters at 11.7 per 9 IP, but he appears somewhat awkward in his delivery motion. Pencil him in for one of the bullpen roles.
In between extended missed time due to injuries, Smith was having his best-ever season for the Mets. The 27 year old has a sterling 2.40 ERA this year over 31 games played with a strikeout per inning pitched. If he's healthy, then he should be part of the relief corps.
The hard thrower has been much more good than bad and after appearing in 61 games thus far he has a respectable 3.61 ERA. He earned $1.688 million for this effort and likely will be back. He's just 26 years old.
Gone (and Gladly Forgotten)
Jeurys Familia's ill-advised three year deal to be a setup guy finally comes to a close at the end of 2021. It's time to correct that error and let him walk away. He was earning an average of $10 million per year for three years. During that time he has a 15-6 record but the good news stops there. His ERA is 4.55. He's notched a single save. His strikeouts were decent at 9.7 per 9 IP, but he's walked 5.7 over the same number of innings. His WHIP is a ghastly 1.561. Don't let the door hit you on the way out.
The great Dellin Betances experiment was a dismal failure and he's barely made his presence known during his two injury-plagued years in New York. In total he has appeared in just 12.1 IP over two full seasons with a 7.82 ERA, 9.2 walks and 8.5 strikeouts per 9 IP. His WHIP threatened to exceed the 2.000 level at 1.974. Had he ever fully recovered his health, it might have been a great story. It didn't play out that way at all.
The Rest
You can cite name after name of obscure AAAA quality pitchers who have logged innings for the Mets. There were also past-their-prime acquisitions who demonstrated why they were cut loose by their former teams. None of the assortment including Heath Hembree, Yennsy Diaz, Trevor Williams and various others may or may not even be around for spring training.
The One Glaring Omission
What should the Mets do about Aaron Loup? His numbers are beyond eye-popping but they are somewhat of an aberration compared to the rest of his career. Next year Loup will be 34 years old. In 2018 and 2019 he pitched to a 4.54 and 4.50 ERAs. Last year with the Rays he was much better at 2.52 and this year he's down to 1.07 over thus far 59 games.
He's earning relatively little at $3 million and will definitely be in for a substantial raise. If the Mets offered a three year deal in the $18 million range it might get it done since older relief pitchers tend not to get the monster level contracts unless they are closers.
Still, Loup might see this stellar year as a means to an end and want to test the market. The wiser move would be to offer up a new deal before the year ends and free agency becomes reality. However, even with his inclusion in the mix, the pen is pretty thin should the team lose someone to injury or ineffectiveness.
One move the Mets could make would be to trade away the poor-fitting Edwin Diaz but it would be after a so-so year and his value would be reduced. Then they would have to turn around and pay for a big name closer or entrust the role to one of the existing crew of relievers. Then you would have to backfill that role with multiple arms which could add up to the same investment, though it does spread the risk around somewhat. The bullpen most definitely need attention in the off-season.
2 comments:
Castro drives me a little nutty, and Diaz needs to find a middle gear between brilliant (80% of the time) and shaky to awful (the other 20%).
But I am happy with all of these pen arms, by and large. Even Familia could stay, if 1) he accepted a whole lot less $$ (let's say $3 to $4 million) and 2) was used in far fewer critical situations. I watched his first batter walk last night, way too easy, and shut it off.
I coincidentally did an article today on the back end of the bullpen for 9:00 today, which reinforces the case that a guy like Familia, unless Cohen can find better for the $$, ought to be
no way Tom this team need a cultural change both in the front office and on the field.
familia needs to go and reallocate those 10 million some where else.
how much does bellatances make? 7 million?
let get new arms for those 17 million.
I would consider trading diaz as he we should not sign him long term. problem is who would close...
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