9/14/21

Tom Brennan - Updated Thoughts on Tylor Megill, Khalil Lee, "K" Prospects, and Some Ex-Mets Thriving after Mets' Purgatory



LAST NIGHT: 

Before getting to Megill, etc., the Mets failed to score (again), failed to win (again), and (to me) essentially eliminated themselves for 2021.  They need to now be extraordinary to get into the playoffs - but extraordinary, they have not been.

MEGILL:

Didn’t you love Tylor Megill dominating and stomping all over the Yanks Friday nite? 

Seven innings, 2 runs, 10 Ks.   

Seemed like vintage Matt Harvey, circa 2013 stuff.  

John Sterling might say: 

"The Thriller...named Megilla.  AHH..AHH..AHH."

If you ask me? I say that Megill is a KEEPER.

After all, the man has done this much after he almost skipped AA and AAA completely. 45 innings total at those two levels.  

So for anyone to expect MLB perfection from Megill under that accelerated career criteria is to expect too much.  His one and only shortfall so far is a few too many HRs. In fact, 27 of his 36 runs allowed have been on long balls…a lesson he will surely learn from.  Conversely, a minuscule 9 runs in 77 innings on “other than HRs”. 

A stellar 1.20 WHIP. And a 3-4 record due primarily to Mets’ failure to score for him. A remarkable 8 of his 15 starts have been NDs, and in those no-decision games, he has a spiffy 2.68 ERA.  88 Ks in 77 IP?  Exceptional.

SIDE NOTES:

Khalil Lee? 

OBP .447 in AAA. Next highest qualifier in all of AAA?  .412. That is a remarkable lead. His LOWEST monthly OBP? .423!

Also, 59 runs in 86 games, with 63 walks. Remarkable. 

I don’t get his 7 of 17 in steals after 53 of 65 in 2019, though.  Run, Khalil, run!  

After a very slow HR start in AAA, Lee has a dandy 9 HRs in the past 8 weeks.  Despite his overmatched 1 for 18 early season Mets debut, he seems like a truly viable 2022 Met OF, given his solid AAA season (his first), and he is also a strong fielder capable of manning all 3 OF positions.


PALMER AND NEWTON  -  IN THE K KORNER:

Not Kiner's Korner - the strikeout corner.  Those two top 30 Mets’ prospects, through Sunday, had combined for a Keon Broxton-like 199 Ks in 484 at bats.  In fairness, the two had also walked a combined 78 times, but the K rate is still well above 1 every 3 PAs. 

Considering Palmer is only in High A and Newton only in Low A (and injured for a while), those K numbers are quite disconcerting. 

Of the two, in 2021, Palmer has a .351 OBP and 29 steals, so I remain hopeful that he will adjust, despite a significant upwards K spike since moving up to Brooklyn.

WATCH OUT WHEN YOU LET GUYS LEAVE METS' PURGATORY:

We talk a lot on this site about who should go...the non-performers, of course...except they become performers as soon as they are gone.


Since leaving the Mets, Travis d’Arnaud has had 647 ABs, with 33 doubles, 31 HRs, and 123 RBIs. Easy come, easy go.  Tomas Nido can do that, right?

Wilmer Flores?  815 post-Mets ABs, 42 doubles, 39 HRs, 118 RBIs. Who’s crying now? Not Wilmer...we are.

They are two more examples as to there being invisible offensive shackles on Mets’ hitters…until they are removed when exiting the team.  

EX-METS PITCHERS CURRENTLY RESIDING IN HAPPYVILLE?

Steve Matz? 12-7. Of course, the rampaging Blue Jays hitters got him 22 runs in his last start…the Mets failed to give him 22 in a number of his Mets' months. The Jays actually scored 44 runs in 3 games…and two of those were 7 inning games, or maybe they score 22 EACH game.  Sometimes it takes the Mets over 2 weeks to score 44 runs.

Paul Sewald? 9-3, 8 saves, 84 Ks in 51 innings.  Worth a Cy Young vote or two.  As a Met?  1-14.

Chris Flexen 11-6, 3.73.  As a Met? 3-11, 69 runs allowed in 69 innings.

Zack Wheeler? As a Phillies hurler in 2020 and 2021, ZW is 17-11, 266 innings, 278 Ks, 2.88.  His comparative Mets’ ERA his last two seasons? Almost a run higher at 3.65.  His 225 Ks in 2021 top the NL.

I know, I’m cherry-picking.  But those are SOME CHERRIES, huh?  Daniel Murphy and Jeff Kent sure think so.

15 comments:

Tom Brennan said...

Good morning, everyone. It's a beautiful day.

Paul Articulates said...

Tom,
Loved your part about "leave Mets' purgatory". There have been so many players that the Mets have traded away only to find their groove and punish their former team with enviable seasons. Here's my list of the guys we wish were not traded away:

Pitcher: Tom Seaver, Nolan Ryan, Zach Wheeler
Reliever: Jason Isringhausen, Heath Bell
Catcher: Travis D'Arnaud
1B: Daniel Murphy
2B: Jeff Kent
3B: Justin Turner
SS: Melvin Mora
OF: Amos Otis, Lenny Dykstra, Ken Singleton

John From Albany said...

Paul - how about a post on the all ex-Met team. Justin Turner is my vote for 3rd Base.

Tom Brennan said...

Paul, great list...it is remarkable how guys so often leave the Mets and do better. I think part of it is the depth of home fences, and part is being # 2 team in town year after year, and the negative pressure that brings. Also, the general pressure that comes when you as a team do not hit. "Why can't you perform better? Boo!"

I bet if Conforto was in the Jays' line up, he'd hit like heck.

Tom Brennan said...

I still am amazed at Khalil Lee's OBP - wonder if he will be one of their OFs next year. My guess? Maybe not opening day, but yes, during the year.

Remember1969 said...

Good stuff here - I agree 100% on Megill. If he can figure out how to limit the homers, he will be a special pitcher. He seems to have the skill to limit the damage when there are base runners. I can see him become a solid #3, maybe even 2 guy for a few years.

And the guys that get out of purgatory - I suspect things even out a bit if we check the other side of some of the trades. For every Justin Turner, there is a Preston Wilson or a Lastings Milledge that 'needed a restart' and showed the same thing. There are really only a few on that list that bother me, probably none more than Amos Otis. I am not particularly bothered by d'Arnaud, although I suspect he could have/would have been much the same player had he stayed with the Mets. His injury history is almost too frustrating to keep.

Lastly, I am really pulling for Khalil Lee. I am extremely hopeful that he will one day make a fine major league outfielder.

Tom Brennan said...

Bill, maybe Khalil Lee will be the next…Amos Otis?

I would love to see a lis of all who left Mets vs. all who came. Obviously, Keith, Carter and Piazza were 3 positives. My guess? Ex-Mets do better. Consider Kingman and Hickman, as just 2.

Remember1969 said...

Howard Johnson and Ron Darling were two other pretty good trade acquisitions.

Michael Fulmer won the ROY with the Tigers, but Cespedes was pretty good for a year. (ok .. half year). That was a good old fashion trade deadline trade that worked.

I'll need to do some more thinking (and maybe research).

Tom Brennan said...

David Cone? Bobby O? Jesse Orosco? John Olerud?

Remember1969 said...

Tommie Agee? Donn Clendenon? Gil Hodges?

Just trying to Remember 1969 :-)

Remember1969 said...

Actually, last night I captured a list of all the transactions the Mets have made with major league players. They have pulled off 408 trades since 1961. I still need to sort through it to find the FA signings (and FA losses). It takes a little work to compile it

There are some trades that bring back the memories. Jerry Koosman for Jesse Orosco was a tough one, but a good one.

Tom Brennan said...

Found another former Mets org guy thriving...Nabil Crismatt is 3-1, 2.76 in 38 games spanning 72 innings for the Padres. In 2018, he pitched well as a AA starter, got knocked around as a Las Vegas starter, and was never tried in relief in the Mets minors in 2017 and 2018, despite being quite effective in relief in seasons prior to 2017...and relief is where he is pitching very successfully at the major league level now.

Another head scratcher

Remember1969 said...

I don't put much stock in journeyman relief pitchers. There tend to be a lot of guys that have a decent year, then fizzle out . .Hansel Robles was one.

Show me three years of this guy and I'll be impressed.

Remember1969 said...

Chasen Shreve, a guy that pitched well for the Mets last year and one that I thought they should have tried to retain has had a very good year with Pittsburgh in 2021.

Tom Brennan said...

Shreve is another example indeed. I am just puzzled why they dumped Crimatt rather than keeping him for relief possibility, unless he opted for free agency. Familia was a lousy minor league starter, but a much better reliever. Heck, Lugo falls into that category too.