Paul Articulates – The Contrarian View

Those who value diversity understand that when you see several different perspectives, the difficult decisions become clearer.  So having processed all that has been said online and in the media about the disappointing end to a tremendous Mets baseball season, I would like to throw a few contrarian views out there to spark some conversation.  The more comments, the better!

Brandon Nimmo should no longer be a leadoff hitter.  I respect Nimmo and the improvements he has made to his game.  However, despite his high on-base percentage (.367) and above average speed, he is not a stolen base threat.  He puts no pressure on the defense or the pitcher by waiting to be moved to the next base.   Marte has a .347 OBP and is an immediate threat when he is on base.   He can score on one hit while it takes two (except long XBHs) to score Nimmo.

Francisco Alvarez will not set the baseball world on fire next year.  Alvarez has a great swing and will someday be a power threat, but that day does not come until he faces a lot more major league pitchers.  With only 45 games at AAA and 5 at the major level, he has not seen enough to read the movement on pitches and adjust.  He had quite a few swings and misses in his 12 at-bats in 2022 and will make the adjustment in time.  Hopefully fans will give him time to learn on both offense and defense without turning on him.

Taijuan Walker should move to the bullpen next year.  Walker pitched very well this year, earning a dozen wins in 29 starts.  He faded a bit in the second half of 2022, though not as bad as his 2021 second half reversal.  He doesn’t have the stamina to go deep into games and deep into the season as a starter.  He does have great stuff, and his splitter can be a difference maker as a short reliever. 

Marte’s injury was not the undoing of the Mets.  Despite great numbers this season .292/.347/.486, Marte only played 118 games as his tight muscle-bound frame was prone to injury.  He did not carry the Mets through the regular season, registering only 76 runs (Nimmo, Lindor, Alonso had more) and 63 RBI (4 players had more).  He was just hot when he got hurt in September, and since the rest of the lineup other than McNeil and Escobar was treading water, Marte’s absence just made a big problem worse.

Jacob deGrom is not the top priority for the Mets.  It is hard to say this, but deGrom does not bring enough wins to the team to justify $50M/yr over 10 years.  He has won 27 games in 4 years, and has not registered 100 innings pitched in any season since 2019.  Although it is easy to blame the Mets offense on his lack of success in his two Cy Young Award years, he has not and will not provide ample return on investment for the salary he will command.  

The Mets can do more with the money to improve the team than they can by maintaining the status quo with deGrom and Scherzer on the staff.

The Mets pitching staff is too old to maintain competitiveness.  There are currently only six pitchers on the current 40 man roster that are going to be under 30 years old next season (Diaz, Megill, Nogosek, Montez de Oca, Peterson, and Reid-Foley).  Hefner and Showalter did a masterful job managing innings pitched and stress on their pitchers last year and the staff was as healthy as you could expect, even with deGrom missing more than half a year and Scherzer taking two stints on the IL.  

That’s not going to last with a group of 30-somethings.  I thought this year’s staff gave the Mets a competitive edge, but when free-agent decisions are being made, Billy Eppler had better be consulting with father time.