Reese Kaplan -- Advocating the Unthinkable During the Offseason

When it comes to free agency everyone tends to think you just spend whatever is necessary to lock up your key players long term.  While that sentiment is understandable, it doesn't mesh well with the fact that baseball is a business with budgets and analysis of Return on Investment (ROI).  

Saying you want to pay a half billion for the best of the best for the rest of his career makes sense only if you can be assured that the individual in question is going to earn it.  Therein lies the Mets' toughest off-season question.

If this was a month ago and the subject of Jacob deGrom came up, everyone would be in that aforementioned camp, saying you can't repeat the Tom Seaver mistake of letting the best pitcher in the game walk away for nothing in return.  During his prime no one questioned his abilities nor his seemingly unbelievable increase in velocity each year he started a game.

Then came the slew of injuries to the man and the Mets have to wonder going forward how many starts will deGrom make in a given year.  For his career he's an enviable 82-57 with a 2.51 ERA.  He has struck out 1607 batters in 1326 innings pitched while walking just 303.  Those numbers are Hall of Fame worthy if he was just starting out his career and hadn't had the opportunity to pitch in 209 games.  

Unfortunately for deGrom he's been in the majors since making his debut at age 26 back in 2014.  2022 just came to a conclusion and he hasn't put in a full season of work since 2019.  In 2020, 2021 and 2022 combined he pitched in 38 games -- little more than a season's worth of work spread over two plus (factoring in the COVID-shortened 2020).  

This past season included just 11 starts and his ERA grew by two full runs from 1.08 in 2021 to 3.08 in 2022.  

Now everyone is well aware that deGrom wants to exercise his opt-out clause this season as the Mets have subsequently signed both pitcher Max Scherzer and shortstop Francisco Lindor to higher average annual value contracts.  Across town the Yankees signed the inferior but good quality Gerrit Cole to a long term deal for $36 million per season.  deGrom is obviously aware of how good he is when he's capable of pitching and wants to be rewarded accordingly.  

While the Mets during the critical Braves series and the postseason loss to the Padres definitely could have used better starting pitching.  However, most folks are more incensed by the lack of timely hitting, the uselessness of the DH role for the club, the automatic out by the catchers and how little they contributed during the regular season in Starling Marte's absence.  Consequently, if you ask the average fan what the Mets need to do in the off-season, the answer invariably comes back to hitting.  

So here's the rub.  If Jacob deGrom is an all-world pitcher who has missed more than he's pitched for the last three years, what exactly is a fair price to pay for his services?  If the magic number of $40 million per season is a starting point, that is likely fair if deGrom is indeed going to start 30+ games for the season.  However, given his history and the fact he's entering his age 3 I5 season coming off his worst stretch of pitching in his major league career, does it make sense to tie up that kind of money?

Although it's not done much anymore, it may be time to revive the concept of a games-played incentive.  That way you can start off at a more palatable say $35 million per season with easily achievable bonuses for the number of games in which he actually pitches.  Even then the likelihood of getting 30+ starts from deGrom remains pretty slim and that makes his cost-per-start significantly higher than what you're paying Scherzer.  

Obviously deGrom isn't going to want to bank on his prospective health as compared to a more standard long term deal that pays him regardless of how much time he spends on the IL.  The Mets fans have to understand that there is a business behind the game and throwing Steve Cohen's money away after a player unable to take the mound is not necessarily the best way to go.  

Entering the Braves series and the postseason everyone was gushing about how having two plus one ace caliber starting pitchers was going to be impossible for another team to beat.  Obviously the impossible indeed happened, so banking all your money on the pitching which was subpar is not the answer.  

Think back to teams like the Big Red Machine who were able to win games with Don Gullett and not a whole lot more in the starting rotation.  They won by scoring runs consistently and fielding an All Star at nearly every position on the field.  While no one is suggesting that the Mets do that, there might be room for a compromise.  

If the Mets can indeed kick their offense up another notch or two, then Max Scherzer and four other sub-3.50 ERA pitchers should be sufficient for them to win.  That $40 million plus per season spent on deGrom could easily fund a pair of significant run producers.  

So there you have it.  Negotiate with deGrom and make him a fair but not outrageous offer.  If he leaves, thank him profusely for all that he's done but it's really not a smart investment to put all your money into a part time player on the tail end of his career.  

Scherzer was different in that until 2022 he was pretty healthy.  deGrom has not been healthy and paying 32-game rate for 11 starts is simply not a wise choice.