SAVAGE VIEWS – Projecting Mets 2023 Roster
October 25,
2022
Rumor has it
that Steve Cohen is willing to spend up to $350 million in 2023. That would be ludicrous. Some wish the Mets
to pursue Aaron Judge and/or Ohtani. Neither
would be a good fit for the team, considering the cost to acquire them. Judge should be a Yankee for life.
There are better options available in assembling the 2023 roster. Prior to the 2022 season, I wrote that the Braves were the superior team. In my wildest dreams I could not imagine the Mets winning 101 games – matching the Braves win total.
Yet, the season was disappointing
given the way they finished. Here are my
suggestions on building a team that will match up well with the Braves. Last
year we were the oldest team in baseball. It’s time to get younger and give our
top prospects a chance to shine.
FROM THE FARM FIVE NEW PLAYERS
Francisco
Alvarez – It’s a
given that Alvarez will be handed the starting job with Nido as his
backup. If Alvarez stays healthy, I expect
him to catch 70% of the games. There may
be some growing pains, but his power bat will make a big difference.
Brett
Baty looks like
he is the third baseman of the future.
As a top prospect he deserves to be given the chance to play every day. Edwardo Escobar can then be shifted to left
field.
Marc
Vientos should be
given the opportunity to win the DH role on a full-time basis. His minor league track record shows he is
ready to make the jump. While he may not
be a great defender, he can play third first or LF if needed.
Wyatt
Young appears to
be a younger, cheaper and more versatile version of Luis Guillorme. Not only is
he a solid defender but has some power and plus speed.
Jake
Mangum should stick as the fourth outfielder. He’s an elite defender who can play all three
outfield positions and he appears to be a decent hitter.
SAYONARA
David
Vogelbach – No place
on the team for this one-dimensional player, plus we have numerous options to
fill the DH role.
Luis
Guillorme – Wyatt Young
is cheaper and more versatile.
Mark
Canha – Having moved
Escobar to LF, time to move on from Canha.
Should be able to get a good prospect in a trade.
James McCann has worn out
his welcome. He has value as a trade
chip. We may have to assume some of his salary.
David
Ruf / Tyler Naquin
– neither is worth keeping although I can see Naquin remaining.
GOTTA KEEP THESE GUYS
Edwin
Diaz – the most
important free agent to keep. Without
him the Mets are not contenders. Pay him
what he is worth.
Jake
deGrom – hard to
imagine a scenario where he signs with another team. He is a Mets icon with a chance to be immortalized
similar to Tom Seaver if he remains.
Somebody will meet his demands – it should be the Mets. I’m tired of seeing Mets greats finishing
their careers with other teams.
Brandon
Nimmo – his intangibles
are off the wall. If he is allowed to leave,
there are no obvious replacements to fill the void. Imagine Nimmo in a Pinstripes
- he would be a monster at Yankee Stadium.
I’d rather not entertain that thought.
THE ROTATION
This the one
area where there are no quick fixes. No prospects ready for promotion. Max Scherzer,
Jake deGrom, Carlos Carrasco and perhaps Chris Bassett would be a good starting
point. Adding Carlos Rodon as a free agent would give us one of the best rotations.
MeGill and Peterson are fall back options.
THE BULLPEN
Edwin Diaz,
Drew Smith, Mychal Givens, Adam Ottavino (assuming he is resigned), Tylor
MeGill and David Peterson form a solid core. Need to add another lefty or two
and a power righty.
SUMMING UP
Without
question it’s going to be a challenging off-season. My expectation is that Mr. Cohen will spend
the necessary bucks to field a competitive team next year.
As I’ve said
previously, our best chance to be a competitive team next year and into the future
is to get younger and promote those prospects ready to take the next step.
Finally,
feeling good today. The Giants won again
and the Yankees were eliminated.
Ray
23 comments:
Wyatt will replace Luis over my dead body.
At some point, $$ spent by a luxury tax team does matter. Maybe, if Wyatt Young gets some ABs in 2023 to prove he is up to being a GOOD major league utility player, then in 2024, the price differential between him and Guillorme matters enough to keep Wyatt and move Luis. For 2023, Guillorme is still a part of the Mets current "brand". And if Lindor ever got hurt, not sure who else mans SS. I think Young could, but he is mostly a solid fielding 2B.
I wonder if Vogelbach can lose 50 pounds. He'd prolong his career. Vientos, I'd consider edging into a DH role...maybe 200 ABs in 2023, then full time in 2024, if of course he hits enough HRs and keeps his Ks manageable. Nimmo seems too happy to be a Yankee, but he is such a smart hitter, he'd take advantage of the porch. So, if he ever went crosstown, would our batting champ.
I don't think Vientos has anything left to prove in the minors.
That can be arranged.
Ray, Vientos has to prove he is not another Jared Kelenic still. I do think he will hit, if given the chance, and the power is very real, which is part of it. Balls that are hit to the track are usually average-depressing outs. Balls hit over the wall are 100% average boosting. He needs to reduce Ks. Best way to do that is not take strikes. Can't get to 2 strikes against MLB pitchers. As he gets acclimated, he can become more selective. Same with Alvarez. Big power, also, so swing early and often.
The Mets need to start integrating people from the minors into future roles instead of grabbing hold of AAAA types and also-rans that other clubs are glad to see depart. Darin Ruf, Tyler Naquin and perhaps Daniel Vogelbach are in that mold. I'd rather see Vientos or Baty or Alvarez struggling a bit to advance against this level of pitching than veterans flailing weakly as we saw often with some of the mid-year acquisitions.
I don't understand the animosity towards Canha who hit 20 points higher for the Mets than he did for Oakland, though his power and RBIs were down. I think he may be a role player much better than the aforementioned three.
Mets need to target FA dollars on SP
Agree with Mack
If Michael Harris and Spencer Strider were Mets they would be in AAA next year.
I agree with most of what Ray has written.
One point where I disagree is Young over Guillorme. Luis has shown GG skill in multiple infield positions. Young has played well against minor league talent. Guillorme can spell 2B, 3B, and SS when needed or if injury happens. Young does not yet show that versaitility.
The other point where I disagree is Escobar to LF and Canha out. Escobar had some nice year-end heroics, but the body of work for 2022 was insufficient. He graded very poorly on all the advanced defensive metrics at 3B and hit .240 for the year even with his late surge. Canha was a steady LF who can also play the other OF positions and gave us a .367 OBP as well as many prolonged at-bats that wore down opposing pitchers. Both make about the same salary, both are 33 years old. Canha is in my lineup, Escobar out.
I stand with Ernest. Wyatt who?
That was me, LOL! “I stand with Ernest”, anonymously, LOL. How’s that for support?
I like the fact that Escobar is a switch hitter with more power than Canha. One needs to go -. I'd rather have Edwardo.
Ray, you’re right about Strider and Harris. Mangum is 26, time to start playing at the big league level.
Actually, he will be 27 before spring training
Mangum in center would allow for more $ targeted to pitching
Mangum cannot be a starting OF coming out of the gate for the Mets in 2023, or they'd have called him up in the stretch drive. I do believe he'd be an excellent 4th or 5th in 2023.
Wyatt Young? No rush on him, but he had quite a year at AA/AAA in his first full season, offensively and defensively. He was on no one's radar screen in 2022 - but he will in 2023 if he keeps it up and gets better. He finished very strong, so why not expect better?
As I've said before, time to get younger and cheaper without sacrificing quality. Shave dollars to spend on pitching.
Appreciate the article. Mostly agree, primarily about the $350M plus payroll next year. Keep everyone and target the very best non QO free agent starters. Not sure about Bassitt, he looked so good all Summer, but the end not so much. Keep the kids and find spots for them. Where does Ronny M play? Kid looks like a keeper this week in the Winter DL. Didn't he just finish off a 20/20 season in AA? I see Khalil Lee dropped down to 24th on the MLB Mets prospect list, but Jake Mangum isn't even listed. I know he was injured some, but why do some people here put him ahead of Lee?
Saw a post somewhere today breaking down the Mets payroll projection for next season at around 215M for now. That's plenty of space to keep Jake, Edwin, Brandon, and anyone else Steve, Billy, & Buck want to add. I say Verlander or bust. No QO & very short term Scherzer type deal. Totally up to his Wife about NYC.
Thanks, DJM
DJM, the Mangum omission might be age-related, but he certainly is top 30. Verlander AND Jake? That would be something, at least in theory. We'd just need to keep the Geritol Set healthy.
Why Khalil is still in the top 30 is beyond me, unless they feel he had a really bad year for some reason. He just fans way too much in AAA, and that was his 2nd year there - why would anyone think he will suddenly do what he needs to do, which is at least a 40% drop in AAA strikeout rate?
To me, and I have not thought thru a top 40, but he would IMO be close to 40, while Mangum would be around 20, if not higher.
I would be pretty surprised to see Canha, Guillorme, and Vogey not on the roster come opening day. Canha is a cheap deal with 1 more season left as is vogey. There are no bad one year deals. Canha provides a solid LF and professional abs. All winning teams have a Guillorme and I am not sure I see Wyatt being what Guillorme provides. As for vogey, he is a great bench piece. If we go get another DH then I could see him being traded but otherwise no reason to replace him. I would like to give Vientos more abs but he looked overmatched at the big league level and has proven himself in AAA. As for Escobar and Baty situation. Bary has to be getting everyday at bats with Escobar filling in where needed. I don't think he could handle LF but anywhere on the infield is fine with me. I don't see anyone taking Escobar or Canha contract for a prospect or two. The only reason you would want them is to fill in pieces on a competitive roster and thats just what the Mets are. A competitive roster with some gaps those guys fill. This pains me to say but I think Jake is gone. Maybe I am wrong but if I am right the Mets can use that money to upgrade elsewhere.
With no shift next year a good fielder at 2B is even more valuable. An up the middle of Lindor/Guillorme makes the pitching much better. Defense is the most underrated thing in baseball. The 2B job should be Guillorme’s to lose.
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