12/6/22

Tom Brennan - Thoughts on Jake as He Exits Queens


A $185 million dollar smile.

I threw a bunch of thoughts out on Facebook over the weekend about Jacob deGrom leaving the Mets and his contribution here in NY.  

I got lots of agreement, lots of the usual negative nabobs of negativism ("the critics who lack critical thinking skills") going negative, and some honest differences of opinion ("I hear you, but I think this...").  Lots of feedback.

I will try to spell out those (mostly my) thoughts in a concise way here. 

JAKE LEAVING

I don't blame him - he is a quiet soul, grew up outside the big city, was not a college stud (9th round selection, after all), and no doubt (in my mind) found NY less desirable than Texas because of:

1) Omnipresent hyperactive media

2) Tough Mets fans who've seen little true success for all their fan loyalty and are understandably cranky

3) There being NY area fans, who are far less polite in general than, say, St Louis fans

4) Far lower state and local tax bills in Texas than in NY - easily $10 million over the course of this contract.

5) Failure to win anywhere near as much as he might have expected, due to lack of offensive support and an often undermining bullpen

6) Believe he is a Christian (he attended Calvary Christian Academy in Florida), has a young son and daughter, and may have felt the cultural and spiritual environment in Texas was far more to his liking for his family than the progressive state of NY.   No small thing - I'd do likewise.

7) Money and years: given his injury history the Mets were understandably unwilling to match the 5 years and $185 million Texas agreed to - I made the points that we were thrilled with the Wright extension, but he only had 1,400 PAs during his 7 year extension; the Cespedes 4 year disaster contract; and the "swallow hard if you want Diaz that bad" Cano contract, which predictably became an albatross of prehistoric size.  Many fans were disappointed that the Mets didn't outbid them, except a) they were not given a chance to do so, and 2) those fans can't balance their own checkbooks.

8) Driving to and from the park had to be a pain in the butt, because the traffic here gets "brutaler and brutaler".

9) Far less cold weather in Texas.  Cold weather and firing seeds into catchers' mitts can be injury-inducing, better to be nice, warm and loose.  I still think the bitterly cold May swing through Colorado and Minnesota in Harvey's ascendant 2013 might have been a contributing factor in him needing TJS (just speculating there).

THE WHOLE IS LESS THAN THE SUM OF THE PARTS

Over the years, I have had many employees.  Most in my view (I'll exclude my current employees, of course, who are simply dynamite) have given a reasonable effort, and that's it, and don't exude a passion for the job, extra effort,  and passion for the success of the company.  It's a job, they want to do reasonably well and advance at a reasonable pace.  Work-life balance. Not try to climb the ladder "fast and furious".

I think Max Scherzer, Edwin Diaz, and Justin Verlander exhibit a true champion's zeal for winning, not just being satisfied to be performing well.  

On the other hand, we've heard Jake is a fierce competitor, but I for a long time felt his goal was to perform his "high octane precision fastball, high octane nasty precision slider" role at a high level, and if that led to wins, well, he did his share.  If not, well, he did his share.

I felt during his 2 win-starved Cy Young years that he was rewarded for that approach.  His teammates' offense was weak and the bullpen was often debacle-inducing.  I did not, however, see Jake try deliberately to reduce his pitch count by pitching to contact, as a Tom Seaver did - Tom punched out lots of hitters, but he was a finesse guy, too, who wanted very badly to complete - and WIN - games.  

Jake I felt he would go full throttle, be done after 6 or 7 innings, leave tied or with a slight lead, and hope the pen wouldn't choke over the final third of the game.  If finesse could have led to more 2nd pitch contact outs rather than 10 pitch punch outs, and kept superior Jake's pitch count lower and in games an inning or so longer, and had his shaky pen had less outs to get, I think he and the Mets win a lot more.

But that might have prevented him from getting the Cy Youngs. Maybe instead of 21 total wins in his two Cy Young years, he would have had a higher ERA while compiling 28 or 30 wins, even if he garnered no salary-inflating Cy Young awards.  He got those award for doing what he did - averaging 10 wins in 32 starts.  That's my take.  Many felt Jake did all he could and deserved zero blame - well, I disagreed.

A NY Post columnist just wrote that he felt Jake would not have the same zeal as Verlander and Scherzer in modifying his game as he ages - right or wrong in that opinion, it aligns with my thoughts on Jake not modifying his pitchipollng repertoire to throw fewer pitches per out, and stay in games longer. 

Secondly, I felt he put himself above the fray in not hitting batters.  

The Mets in 2.4 seasons (shortened 2020, 2021, and 2022) were hit 251 times.  That's insanely high, and screams for strong boundaries and retaliation - Jake, however, in 38 starts in those 3 seasons hit just one batter.

Messrs. Max and Bassitt hit 26 guys in just 2022, no doubt some of them to send a message. Perhaps if Jake had hit 10 guys over that stretch and also threw more inside pitches that hitters had to dive out of the way of, the Mets would have been hit (and injured) less.  Naturally, some bonehead fans failed to see any connection, and resented my accusing Jake of being a de facto wimp in that regard - but I believe the numbers speak for themselves.

Gibson, Clemens, Drysdale, and Pedro - four greats - all would have been all too happy to send warnings and hit guys, to protect their own hitters.  Why do I say that?  It was part of their repertoires.

Sterling Starling Marte got a broken finger in early September.  Teams had little fear of retribution since the Mets only hit opponents 60% as much as Mets hitters got nailed.  That easy September schedule sputtered due to lack of offense, and the lack of offense was due to lack of Marte.  Instead of winning the Division and skipping the Wild Card round, they got stuck playing that round, lost quickly, and left quietly.   

Maybe if Jake was viewed as a retaliator Marte does not get hit there.  Maybe opposing pitchers think, "I better be really careful pitching inside." But Jake helped it be open season on Mets hitters due to his (as I see it) pacifist passivity and lack of love for inside pitches.  

"Thou shalt not hit thy opponent unnecessarily". And "Mets' hitters can turn the other cheek - and wear armor." 

Of course, Pete and Lindor were both beaned in 2022, and miraculously, both dodged major bullets with those.  The offense would have been staggered if either missed much time. Maybe a reputation for quick staff retaliation by Mets pitchers would help avoid such opposing pitchers' "slips".

I also indicated I felt that hitters are more inspired hitting behind fiery dudes like Max and Verlander than quiet Jake.  I wrote that, while unprovable, if Max had pitched in every Jake start for the Mets the past 5 years, I think he would have won a lot more games - because, simply, he is Mighty Mad Max - he takes not winning very personally.  He has the fire that inspires.  Or when Bartolo pitched for the Mets, he won a lot, because all the players were loose and happy, not pressing to not let Jake down.

I also felt Jake may have calculated his 2022 return timing for maximum contract impact.  Return a month later, and not as much of an opportunity to show you are healthy and durable.  But also not too soon, to risk injury or fatigue which might scare away post-season suitors.  My speculation is that he could have returned sooner, but didn't. Looked like the Division was in the bag, so why rush?

And his finances trumped all, in my assessment. Bad health or lack of ample enough demonstation of good health?  Lower contract offers.

Max, meanwhile, strained his oblique - but shocked everyone how fast he came back from it.   Weeks ahead of expectations.  That said "Warrior" to me.  I like Max/Edwin warrior types a lot.

I told fans if I had to not pick one of 4 guys, which might that be - Edwin Diaz, Max, Verlander, or Jake.  Definitely, Jake was the odd man out.   

Edwin was a fireball who went mano a mano with the opposition and slayed them almost every time.  Plenty of fire and moxie. Max, little things like injuries get sloughed aside, and he wanted to pitch late into games.  Verlander will be a Hall of Famer for a reason.

I said, point blank, that I thought the Mets would get more value out of their 5 year, $100 million Edwin Diaz contract than Jake would provide in his 5 year, $185 million deal. Time will tell. 

And I simply enjoyed watching Edwin dealing.  I love that he loves NY,  I love that he saved 57 games once with Seattle, with fire.  And I cut him slack for being rattled in his Mets debut year of 2019 when the baseballs were absolutely juiced.

Lastly, I would post that I would have offered Jake 5 years, at $2 million a start.  WHAT A DEAL!! 

Yeah, I know it can't work that way, but consider the upside.  He would have needed just 93 starts in 5 years to start making more $$!  If he could have averaged 30 starts a year?  $300 million!

If I were the owner I would have been happy to do that deal, because I would have thought he'd fall short of 18 starts a year over 5 years due to injuries, and I'd be done paying.  I did, however, suggest the Mets give him a 1 year $50 million offer, and wait a season for the multi-year, but for obvious reasons he would not do that - he knows his injury history.

With all of the above, I was called by some Facebook fellas stuff like "Hater".  No, I am just a non-hater who hates being called a hater when all I hate is that people cannot be analytical and use critical thinking without resorting to calling non-haters haters.      

But I have never worn rose-colored glasses and never will.  Jake to me always felt like the whole was less than the sum of the parts.  He can certainly prove otherwise to the watching baseball world, and prove my speculations to be mularkey.

That's my excruciatingly long take - you of course have yours.  

Say what you want.  Just don't call me a hater - I hate that!


P.S. I saw this Monday night…says volumes about stuff like why, in Cy Young 2019, the Mets were just 14-18 in games he started:

According to Buster Olney, the only team willing to

accept DeGrom's demand of 5 years was Texas.

Mets, Braves, Yanks, Dodgers and Giants all said no.

He also said that DeGrom informed his agents not to

contact the Mets.

As an aside, a Mets insider told Olney that DeGrom

wanted nothing to do with Mets off the field activities,

did not hang around the clubhouse after the game for

more than a few minutes, and did not engage

teammates in any meaningful way.

26 comments:

D J said...

Tom,
Excellent points. I think over the next 5 seasons we will see that the Mets made the right decision.

Tom Brennan said...

D J, thanks. I am not in the clubhouse, obviously, but the Sherman and Olney recent limited critiques align with my comments, so I am probably more right than wrong.

Mack Ade said...

Very well written and from the heart.

Me?

I'm done with this story.

And I think that the Mets community is moving on fast due to the immediate Verlander signing.

I don't care how rich I would be. I would never pay 45mil a year to someone with his past two year injury history.

bill metsiac said...

Another well-done article, making excellent points. Of course, it's an eye of the beholder situation, and not something that can be documented as right or wrong, but I agree with everything you wrote. Grade A!

Tom Brennan said...

Thanks, Mack and Bill, and the great thing about Verlander (besides him being 18-4 last year, rarified air that Jake never approached) is that he comes in like Max last year - Jake simply did not win a lot - 82 in 9 years. Had he won 130 in 9 years, people would be a lot more upset.

Tom Brennan said...

Scherzer since 2014 won 128 games, and Verlander, despite essentially missing 3 full seasons since 2014, won 109 games. Big difference from 82 wins. Huge, in fact.

Ernest Dove said...

Time will tell. He cant keep throwing 101 MPH. All in all I'm happy hes now hidden in Texas on a bad team lol. Mets are going to be really good again.

Gary Seagren said...

Great post and what struck me about what you said about Harvey was the effect cold probably had on Harvey and his injury history and I also remember watching him pitch in Buffalo just before he came up and it was snowing which is just crazy. Syracuse is probably just as crazy but were stuck with it. Also we love to see emotion from players and the stark contrast between Max and Jake was very noticeable and I'm sure not missed by Mr. Cohen.

Dallas said...

Tom you have some great points but I also think you are off base on some stuff. DeGrom is just a different personality. Guys like Max and Verlander just show more outward emotion. I'm a more reserved person myself.

DeGrom never seemed to need the limelight. Look at Syndergaard and Harvey who milked the limelight for all they could. Jake simply did his job day in and day out until he missed some time in his last few seasons. Certainly the media factor and NY might not fit his lifestyle but I don't think it ever took away from his competitiveness.

You criticize him not changing how he pitched and only going 6 or 7 innings but he was an innings eater:

2017: 10th
2018: 2nd
2019: 10th

This being in the National League where he was often forced to be pinched hit for because the Mets were not scoring him any runs.

Watching DeGrom pitch year after year was a joy. He was always my favorite player because he was a home grown unheralded prospect that burst onto the scene and simply dominated (part of the reason I like McNeil so much as well) without needing to attention seek like guys like Syndergaard & Harvey.

Honestly I don't want to come up with negatives about him. Whats the point? I prefer to enjoy his career as a Met. I don't buy into this win narrative at all. I think it is a very thoroughly debunked stat in measuring performance. To somehow to try to pin the mediocre bullpen performance and lack of hitting on him when he gives the team every chance to win holds no water with me. Alcantra led all of baseball in IP this year with a 2.2 ERA & only managed 14 wins.

In the end he chose money and potentially a more comfortable place to finish his career which is what 99% of players do. There are very few players you can say bleed orange and blue over the money. Max doesnt bleed orange and blue, he is simply a competitor that got paid a massive salary...same with Verlander. The Dodgers are lucky Kershaw bleeds the Blue and White...if you read his recent comments and look at the massive discount he took.

Tom Brennan said...

Ernest, Jake got what he wanted, all I want is another 100 win team. I believe we'll get that with Cohen Cash and Cohen Cranium.

Paul Articulates said...

Sorry Tom, but I have a contrary view.
It is human nature to rationalize the loss of something good by trying to say it wasn't that good - like disparaging a girlfriend that dumped you because it hurt.

Jacob deGrom was a special talent, and when he pitched, every NY eye turned towards him. He was a silent, focused competitor who not only refined his pitching to become the best in the game, but also taught others. Taijuan Walker was among those who benefitted from his mentorship and hopefully he will be back to show more. We lost Jake, and it hurts.

When someone says they "heard that he said...." it has no credibility with me. The "experts" like Olney get their title because they have lots of followers. How do you get followers? You say sensational things that get lots of people talking. That doesn't mean it is true. So let's not paint him as a bad teammate or an unfriendly stuck-up superstar that didn't care about anything else. Let's celebrate the moments he gave us and then move on towards winning the prize.

Tom Brennan said...

Gary, what annoys me with Syracuse and Buffalo and Binghamton is how early they play night games. I signed up for MILB.com minors game broadcasts one year, the few fans in the stands in early Aril at night were dressed as if they were attending a Jets football game in late December. Baseball weather it is not. Extreme cold, just logically, seems like an injury threat to hurlers who need to not stiffen up.

Tom Brennan said...

Dallas, all good and fair points. I remember at the time Jake was going 21-17 in his 64 starts in his 2 Cy Young seasons, I wrote about his need to adjust IF he wanted to win more. Because, yes, the hitters (for whatever reason) were not hitting when he pitched, and the bullpen often brought a gasoline can to the mound.

I truly think Seaver would have seen that his only chance to get more than 21 W's was to pitch to contact, get deeper into games, and rely on his superiority to not have that damage him in terms of runs scored.

I watched so many times guys would be fouling Jake off repeatedly and he'd end up with 10 or 11 pitch strikeouts. They knew their only chance was to drive up his pitch count. My point was if he had deliberately pitched more to contact, he could have cut the number of outs his bullpen had to compile in half, and would have won more.

Yes, that would have perhaps made him # 1 in innings per start, but with the same number of pitches.

I wish he would have won more games - a lot more - he didn't. Max and Verlander did.

Dallas said...

Paul, I agree! The disparaging a girlfriend that dumped you is a great analogy lol.

Tom Brennan said...

Paul your views are understandable and well-presented.

He did pitch extraordinarily well. I think part of my angst is that in September, he frankly failed, and in 2015, his loss to the Royals may have cost them a World Series ring. Had he won that game, and the Mets won the 2015 series, or even got us to the Division title in 2022, I most likely am not writing this article.

Tom Brennan said...

Dallas, except I am happier with Verlander on the Mets than with Jake - the new girlfriend! (Of course, Kate Upton too, so we get two for the price of one) :)

Mike Freire said...

Well said, Tom.......kudos to you for going to battle on the social media site that will remain unnamed. Well intended when it began, it has turned into a cesspool, unfortunately and trying to speak intelligently will get you nowhere.

I agree with Mack......Jake's gone and I am moving on.

Tom Brennan said...

Mike, oddly, some early FB attackers and I are forming some mutual respect, which comes out of exchanging ideas, not barbs. Have a barb-free day, my friend.

TP said...

Tom,
What a great article. Thank you for such insights.

Jake was an extraordinary talent and he is likely the #2 all-time Met pitcher. None of that can be take away from him or Met history. I hear the contrarian views that claim rationalization, but I just don't agree.

Clearly Jake was never comfortable in NY, but basically what counts only happens between the lines. He earned his right to free agency, and he earned his right to choose. There is no shame in preferring Texas over NY.

Business-wise, it made no sense for the Mets, or any other major market playoff caliber team, to offer the deal that the Rangers did. As Mack noted, with his age and recent injury history, nope.

Lastly, none of us have the inside story, but I do think there is enough smoke there to question Jake's commitment to taking the mound over 2021-22. That's not to say that he did anything wrong or self-centered, but given the money on the line I think it is fair to say that he may have thrown more if he had guaranteed money for the next 5 years as opposed to a planned opt out.

As an older fan I am not emotionally attached to these guys, even the guys that I like and root for strongly. Fill the spot and we all move on. Let's roll!

Tom Brennan said...

Thanks, TP. Personally, I like Gooden as my # 2, Koosman (who got very miserable offensive support his entire Mets career) as # 3, Cone as # 4 (remember 20-3 - compare to Jakes 21-17 two years with Cy Young, Cone got beat out for the Cy that year by Orel H), and Jake at # 5. But that is just my take. Maybe I am harsh.

I once made the point that if Mike Mussina had done all his pitching on the Koosman teams, and Koosman did all his pitching for Mike's teams, Koosman is in the Hall and Mussina is not.

Tom Brennan said...

Ronny Mauricio FYI has started 6 winter league games at 3rd base, including last night. 118 RBIs in 163 games in 2022. Love seeing the kids play a ton of games.

Viper said...

Tom,

DeGrom was a great pitcher for us and as someone else stated, it was not his fault that the Mets could not hold his leads or simply didn't hit when he was on the mount.

Having said that, with his injury history, it was simply too much money to put in play when so many other holes need to be filled. I wish Jake nothing but the best and hope that in Texas he gets lots of support.

Right now what I don't understand is why the Mets are simply concentrating just on starters while ignoring relievers. Are they not capable of doing both at the same time?. What's going on with Bassitt? why are the Mets waiting on him when he makes a perfect #3?. While the Mets running in place pretty much the Phillies have gotten a lot better.

Teams with money should strike first to get the players they want. Not wait for the last remaining marginal players to fill their roster. They can sign players later on but the Mets are going to be expensive regardless. So do it now while the best players are still available.

Anonymous said...

Good Blog Brennan

To me the NY Mets got all that they could of possibly gotten from Jake deGrom. To me, the real trouble with Jake's arm health got worse when he ramped up his fastball to 100 mph.

Look at his career injury record.

It shows in 2018 a hyperextended right elbow. In 2019 a hip injury. 2020 back tightness, neck, and hamstring. All lost starts, all lost time. In 2021, two side injuries, an elbow, shoulder, and two serious forearm injuries. Then in 2022, after being out about one season's worth of consecutive starts, the shoulder injury. The amazing thing here which all Mets fans should greatly appreciate, is that even without their ace on the mound the NY Mets were a first place team for almost the entire 2022 season. That's a testament to a very good team.

I really did like Jake deGrom being here a NY Met starter. Everyone did. But sometimes a team has got to come to a reality base and see that it is time to cut bait with an often injured star player, and then move on in a high level rebuild type mode.

If somehow the NY Mets can land Kodai Senga as their third starter for 2023, I think that new rotation would better both the 2021 and 2022 ones. I am hopeful as every NY Mets fan must be.


Anonymous said...

If you have not already, go check out this young righty Japanese starter. His name is Rōki Sasaki.

He is 21 years old and just starting out but is considerably younger at twenty-one than any other Japanese starter that I have seen. Some are saying that Roki is the next big Japanese superstar pitcher.

Imagine both Senga and Sasaki in the same NY Mets rotation at one time. Then add in Scherzer, Verlander, Peterson, and one more stud starter for the sixth starter role that this team might just have benefited from all along. Maybe Jose Butto once ready.

Anonymous said...

I liked Chris Bassit in 2022, until the very end of the season and in the playoffs. Something was missing then. Maybe he got tired from the long season. Maybe it was the cooler temperatures. Not sure. And his career stats indicate that he really only got consistent starting in 2019.

Like everyone else, Chris is asking now for probably the four year deal I have heard. He is 34 years old at the start of the 2023 season and needs to go that route (longer contract) as others here have. But four years more on a new contract and he will be 38.

I suggest maybe this: 1. Scherzer, 2. Verlander, 3. Senga 4. Peterson 5. Carrasco 6. Butto when ready.

Tom Brennan said...

Butto has been a solid yet unspectacular minor leaguer. I am a bigger believer in Tidwell, Hamel, and Ziegler. Keep them all. We’re shedding prospect pitchers like Askew a little too quickly.