Paul Articulates – A different path to a championship

84 wins.  That is all it took to get to the World Series for the Arizona Diamondbacks.  Well, that and a little momentum in the postseason.  People will talk about their amazing rookie Corbin Carroll, their speedy outfield, their shut-down back of the bullpen… but those same players were there in the regular season and only helped them win 84 games – and lose 78 times.

Baseball has always been a game of ebbs and flows.  Some players are streakier than others, but all go through periods where their performance matches their potential and periods where that performance is lacking.  This is because baseball is very hard to play well.  

You have heard the phrase, “the best players fail 70% of the time” and that is an appropriate measure of how hard it is.  When a batter can strike a round ball in the center of the barrel of a round bat with a deviation measured in fractions of an inch, success is achieved.  When a pitcher can throw a baseball spinning at thousands of RPM at a target just inches wide that is over 60 feet away, success is achieved.  

The most skilled players achieve this sometimes, and when they do there is a surge in their confidence that they can do it again.  String a few of those times together in a short period and a streak is born.  String a few streaking players together and a winning streak is born.  

When a team that has won just a few times more than they lost during the regular season gives birth to a winning streak just when the playoffs are about to begin, they can play for the World Championship without having proven dominance during the season.  

It happened with the Braves in 2021, it happened with the Phillies in 2022, and it is happening with the Diamondbacks in 2023.  This is the current state of Major League Baseball where the playoffs have been expanded to allow 6 teams each from the NL and the AL into the mix.

The reason for this opening is to illustrate the point that it may be time to reflect on how teams are built.  If you remember back a few decades to the George Steinbrenner Yankees teams, they were built to be dynasties.  No money was spared to load the roster with the finest players, and no position was spared.  

Teams with the means to do it have continued  to aspire to that model, including the Dodgers of the last decade, the Red Sox of the 90’s, and even the current Steve Cohen-led Mets.  But dominance has failed to get the job done.  This year three 100+ win teams failed to make it out of their first round series.  

It was not because they lacked skill in any position, it was because they ran into a team on a streak.  The Dodgers, who won 100 games this year and 317 over the last three seasons were swept in the NLDS by the Diamondbacks, who won 84 games this year and 210 over the last three seasons.

I can’t help but wonder what would have happened if the Mets’ leadership did not pull the plug at the trade deadline this year.  At the end of July they stood at 49-54 (.476) and were 17.5 games behind the Atlanta Braves in the NL east.  The way the Braves (.644) were playing, it looked like there was no way to catch them, and with a full seven teams between the Mets and the last playoff berth, leadership determined that the probability of entering the playoffs in 2023 was a very small number.  

I agreed with their logic.  But none of us realized that so many teams would falter and the “line to gain” would be 84 wins.  To achieve that total, the Mets only needed to win 35 games of their remaining 59, which is a .593 pace.  With their roster and a couple of healthy streaks, that would have been achievable.  But I digress.

A few years ago under the leadership of owner Steve Cohen, the Mets undertook a two-part strategy to build their team.  

Part one was to acquire the players to “win now”, and they spent record setting amounts to bring in players like Francisco Lindor ($341M), Starling Marte ($78M), Max Scherzer ($130M), and Justin Verlander ($86M).  We all know that this arm of the strategy did not work.  Some of those players are already gone.  

Part two of the strategy was to build the player development capability, from improved analytics capability to new state-of-the-art training technology, to filling the minor league pipeline with top-notch prospects.  This continues to be a work in progress, and has tremendous potential to bring long term, sustainable success.

If you buy my theory that the new, diluted MLB playoff format does not require dominance anymore, just a team with very capable players that gets on a roll, then the Mets’ part 2 strategy is right on the money.  A strong player development system that is well stocked with prospects should result in a very deep roster full of fundamentally solid players.  One just has to put the right pieces in place to take advantage of this to position the team for success every year.

OK, David Stearns, here is your to-do list.

1) Hire a manager that understands the part 2 strategy and can manage a deep roster by ensuring that there is always healthy competition for playing time, players accumulate adequate rest over the grind of a162-game season, and can adjust on-field tactics to performance trends of the players.

2) Manipulate the roster through trades, acquisitions, international signings, and draft picks to assemble a cast of mentally resilient players that handle adversity easily.

3) Emphasize physical and mental health of players as a top priority throughout the season and the off-season.