10/2/23

Reese Kaplan --- A Season In Review and Needs to Address for 2024


With the New York Mets season of 2023 coming to a conclusion there are any number of issues and questions to consider for the near future.  First let's look at the good...

Rookie Catcher

Francisco Alvarez was force fed into the majors ahead of schedule and with 25 home runs threatening to tie Johnny Bench for the all-time power for a 21 year old backstop, you have to smile about his future.  His defense improved dramatically over the course of the season.  The only real issue for the future is a more consistent non-power bat to elevate his AVG into a respectable number.

Rookie Starting Pitcher

What can you not like about the acquisition of Kodai Senga?  His ERA is under 3.00.  He fanned more than 200 batters.  He achieved a 13-7 record on a decidely weak team.  He cost what now seems like a bargain price of $15 million per season.  He's the Mets' best starter right now for 4 more years.

Run Production from Shortstop

Francisco Lindor may not have the highest batting average of any shortstop in the game, but a 30-30 season near the century mark in RBIs has to make you smile.  He might be slightly overpaid, but his contributions on defense and his professionalism help make the investment seem far more equitable. 

Run Production from First Base

Assuming the Mets work out some kind of contract extension for the final year of Pete Alonso's pre-free agency year, you have to be happy with the home runs and RBIs you're getting out of your 3rd or 4th member of the batting order.  He's near the top of all of baseball in both home runs and RBIs.  

Hot Finish for Jeff McNeil

While a .272 average isn't going to be one for the record books, it's actually quite a good achievement considering how substandard McNeil had hit for most of the season.  It's not good hearing about his UCL injury that terminated his season a few days early, but his versatility playing all over the field defensively along with the strong finish to his batting average number suggest he was well worth the new contract he received this past off season.  

Free Agent Southpaw Reliever

I've said it before and I'll say it again...when the Mets offered up a solid but unspectacular contract for little known Brooks Raley, no one was doing cartwheels.  Yes, he was coming off a remarkable 2022 season but it seemed an outlier after an unspectacular career.  At age 34 people didn't know if he would repeat.  He did.  That should make everyone happy.

Return to Competence for Adam Ottavino

While everyone was very happy with the job Ottavino did in the past, no one knew what to expect upon his return to Queens.  He seemed to alternate great years with average ones but by the end of 2023 he was delivering consecutive great ones.  

Home Run Barrage from Center Field

Brandon Nimmo was also the recipient of a generous contract extension and he has continued to play a superb center field.  This season with the bat was a little different as he has dropped a tad in the on base percentage was was always his forte, but his home run barrage was at a new level.  Adding more speed to his game will make him even more valuable in the future.

Surprising Output from Right Field

Although in the past week or ten days DJ Stewart's amazing and long string of competence seemed to hiccup, no one can argue with the job he did when forced into regular work with the disappearance of Mark Canha, Tommy Pham and Starling Marte.  He's never going to remind anyone of Juan Lagares with his outfield glove and he runs with the same grace as Daniel Vogelbach, but at what he was being paid his offensive assault was most welcome indeed.

Late Arrival But Competent Southpaw Starter

Everyone didn't know what to expect from lefty Jose Quintana whose season started with a very long stint on the IL, but when he arrived it was most welcome to see him come up with an ERA that would play well near the top of any rotation.  Having him back for 2023 if healthy is going to make Jeremy Hefner smile a lot.

Reinforcements in the Minor Leagues

The midyear selloff delivered quite a few outstanding prospects like Luisangel Acuna, Drew Gilbert and others to the club in addition to their homegrown ones like Jett Williams and Tyler Stuart.  The future's so bright I gotta wear shade.

Of course, for all those things that went right, there are an awful number of questions about what didn't progress as hoped...

The Rest of the Starting Rotation

2024 means no pair of future Hall of Famers joining veteran Carlos Carrasco to form the starting quintet.  While Tylor Megill and David Peterson have had flashes, overall they have shown more bad than good and after as long as they've taken to fail to establish consistency, it looks as if the club would benefit most from them in their usual AAAA mode of backup and emergency starters.  

Jose Butto has been more good than bad, but his soft repertoire suggests he is not a solution either.  The most surprising member of the incumbent quarter is veteran southpaw Joey Lucchesi who could function as a 4th or 5th starter, but that still would leave the rotation short of two more regulars with competence. 

The Rest of the Bullpen

To call it weak is to grade on a major curve.  Other than perhaps Drew Smith, no one else out there is ready to accompany Edwin Diaz, Brooks Raley and Adam Ottavino in support of the as yet unidentified starting rotation.

The Rest of the Outfielders

Almost as forgettable as the bullpen, don't expect return engagements for Rafael Ortega, Tim Locastro nor any others who racked up Uber bills between Syracuse and Flushing.  Mark Canha and Tommy Pham are both gone though also both free agents.  Starling Marte's health crippled his season but he's under contract for two more years, so they desperately need help for Brandon Nimmo and whomever else is out there.

The Bench

As weak as the starting lineup turned out to be, that's nothing compared to the folks available in the lesser role of backups.  Between health issues and aspiring even to achieve AAAA level of production, it was a huge dropoff from below average to "Who?" in this department.

Health

Starting with Edwin Diaz, then adding in Justin Verlander, Jose Quintana, Carlos Carrasco, Starling Marte, Omar Narvaez and a slew of others, the club seemed to get more than its fair share of games lost due to illness and injury.  They really need to work significantly better in scouting out healthy players and figuring out how best to help them recover when disabled.

Defense

For every wow kind of play you saw from the likes of Francisco Lindor and sporadically from some others, no one else on the club is threatening to bring home a Gold Glove.  With porous offense and suspect pitching a significant improvement in this area would help immensely.  

Third Base

The mighty quartet of Jeff McNeil, Ronny Mauricio, Brett Baty and Mark Vientos all could lay claim to the spot but none is a certainty based upon 2023 output and 2024 positional need.

The Middle of the Batting Order

After Lindor and Alonso thus far there is not much else there.  The DH role has provided nothing to the Mets, Starling Marte was not himself and aside from some consistency from since departed Tommy Pham the left field spot was also not very solid when it came to the batting side of the game.

Who Holds the Lineup Pencil?

Well covered territory already is what will happen with Buck Showalter's third year of his three-year deal.  Will he return to help transition a highly uncertain roster back into a formidable one or is it time for a fresh start from someone else?

How Much More of Steve Cohen's Money Will Be Spent?

Everyone has already assumed Billy Eppler will convince top Japanese free agent Yoshinobu Yamamoto to join the Mets on a more expensive deal than was given to Kodai Senga given his five years of youth he brings as an advantage of the now 30 year old Senga.  

Rumors also proliferate that the Mets will make a trade proposal to land Juan Soto from the Padres.  There are any number of other high priced players and free agents who could help but no one is sure what approach will be taken by the front office this time around.

Yes, David Stearns is going to earn his hefty paycheck for sure.

14 comments:

Viper said...

Is going to take a lot of work to put this team in a position to win. But a WC shouldn't be so hard if they can bring in at least one more good starter while getting healthy and fixing the BP. But before the Mets start trading prospects for the likes of Juan Soto, they should think about what the Angels won in 2023 with Ohtani, Rendon and Trout. What about the Padres with all of those young studs?

Protect the farm, that's the key to future success. Trade the goats and other farm animals but keep the up and coming studs.

Reese Kaplan said...

Good thoughts here, Viper. I believe they need to indeed protect the best young assets but also be prepared to cut loose the ones who are never going to be solid and consistent members of the team. Take for example Tylor Megill and David Peterson. Neither have established themselves as major league regulars but they had enough flashes of talent that another club might want them for some low level minor leaguers. Granted, a team already with only two starting pitchers is a bit foolhardy to become even thinner there, but pitchers with 5.00 ERAs are not a formula for success especially after multiple years of trying and failing. Similarly, as good as Luis Guillorme is with his glove, he is not a starter on this club. He could go. Catchers not named Alvarez should go. Outfielders not named Nimmo should be up for grabs (though no one would take Marte at his financial obligation and no proof he's over his health issues). Tell Daniel Vogelbach thanks for trying but we understand why you've bounced around and we can do better at DH.

Tom Brennan said...

Nice synopsis and analysis.

The Mets have two annual segments:

1) Play games, and fail

2) Off-season, where massive spending fixes occur, before they go out to play games again, and fail.

Will 2024 be any different? We’ll see. We do have Edwin returning. So I am cautiously optimistic about a 2024 wild card.

Mack Ade said...

Great post

My thoughts...

1. The new POBO will be formally announced this week

2. My guess is the new manager will be named by this time next week

3. Multitasking is tantamount to Mets needs. First is resigning the guy on your team that loves being a Met, wants to be one forever, is under 30 and was 2nd in the league in HR and RBI this season.

4. Finalize a deal with Yamamoto

5. Target the direction of the team for 2025 not next season

Mack Ade said...

Revision on point 2

Manager will be named day after Brewers are eliminated

Reese Kaplan said...

if Craig Counsell is not the manager for whatever reasons -- time off to spend with his children, a renewal offer by the Brewers, etc., who is Plan B?

Dan B said...

Sterns officially announced today? Check! Must sign Yamamoto. Resign Pete. After that things get interesting. Id trade for Soto if you can make it happen without giving up Williams , Gilbert or Acunua. I forget who but someone proposed Baty, clifford and peralta. If pull that trigger assuming we can sign Soto to an extension as part of the transaction. If not id try a similar trade / extend for corbin burns. Id considering signing jordan Montgomery as well.

Lots of ifs but who wouldnt feel good about Yamamoto, senga, quintilla, Montgomery leading a rotation (with a 5th slot open for upgrades) over the next few years with lindor, alonso, McNeil, alvarez, nimmo and soto as your core players with 3 spots open for whichever of the kids rise to the occasion? Probably a WC contender for next year but i feel that the mets can challenge the braves outright perhaps as early as 2025 and certainly by 2026

bill metsiac said...

POBO will be announced in less than 2 hours.

Viper said...

Just trying to be realistic with the fact that Cohen, if they trade for Soto would have to pay him a lot of money to stay and don't forget who his agent is. Add to that Pete Alonso and Yamamoto if we are lucky enough to sign him. Scherzer and Verlander are still on the payroll for 2024 if I remember correctly.

I know the man has money but there is a limit on what he is willing to spend.

2024 should be about adding more top prospects, developing and planning. If the Mets add a couple of BP arms, the WC could be a possibility. Diaz and Marte should be ready to go.

In 2025, Scherzer and Verlander are off the books, Soto is a free agent along with top free agents. That's the time to complete the team going forward.

Mack Ade said...

You're making too much sense here

Mack Ade said...

The Mets will never shake this until they get a functioning rotation

Stearns builds teams around pitchers

Mike drop

Mack Ade said...

Turns out I was wrong about the time-line regarding the manager

Stearns said he will create a wide net for this search

Hmm

How big of a.net covers Milwaukee?

Dan B said...

Whatever else happens this off season the mets need to find 2 starters that can be with this team through multiple seasons. We need to develop starting pitchers in the minors but theres nothing ready to make an impact in the next fews years.

I think it’s important we resign Pete but after that its all about the rotation. Yamamota for the front end and a reliable mid rotation arm would give us 4 locked in starters for next year and 3 for several. Years after that.

I know i opined that we should look into trades for players like Soto but no triggers should be pulled if the price is too astronomical AND we can extend them in the process. Fix the rotation because you need it to he competitive for when this team’s offense is ready to dominate in a 1-3 years

Lou said...

Why do you think the offense will dominate in 1-3 years?