Reese Kaplan -- First Come Cuts, Then Arbitration Decisions

While many people are focused on the trades and free agent acquisitions the Mets and their as yet incomplete front office make to prepare for the upcoming 2024 season, there are other decisions that need to be made between now and then.  Already the Mets have dismissed six players from their 40-man roster -- Jonathan Arauz, Anthony Kay, Danny Mendick, Vinny Nittoli, Michael Perez and Rafael Ortega -- though they have five on the 60-day IL who need to be added back onto the roster in the near future.  

Going forward the Mets may decide it's not worth sacrificing 40-man roster slots to fringe players who are not necessarily part of the long term plans for success.  Now don't get me wrong.  It is not a direct criticism of a player like left handed pitcher Josh Walker, but given his fragile health and limited major league output it may be more prudent to offer up that roster spot to a newcomer than it would be to preserve it for someone like Walker who isn't necessarily a shoo-in to be a factor in Queens.  

A parallel decision making exercise must soon follow for the thirteen arbitration eligible players currently residing on the 40-man roster who will be facing salary increases despite an unclear value proposition for how much they deliver to the team.  Players can submit a projected new salary amount, teams can submit their own figure.  Then an arbiter will determine which number is more appropriate.  

First, let's take a look at the list including their number of big league seasons and the amount they're projected to be awarded by an arbiter:

• Pete Alonso (5.000): $22 MM
• Jeff Brigham (3.142): $1.1MM
• Sam Coonrod (4.078): $900K
• John Curtiss (3.137): $1MM
• Trevor Gott (5.057): $2MM
• Luis Guillorme (4.159): $1.7MM
• Elieser Hernandez (5.044): $1.6MM
• Tim Locastro (4.122): $1.6MM
• Joey Lucchesi (4.112): $2MM
• David Peterson (3.089): $2MM
• Drew Smith (5.034): $2.3MM
• DJ Stewart (2.168): $1.5MM
• Daniel Vogelbach (5.138): $2.6MM

Now some of these decisions are brain dead simple.  You give Pete Alonso his sizeable payday in the hopes you extend the opportunity to negotiate between now and the end of the 2024 season about a long term contract extension.  Joey Lucchesi David Peterson, Drew Smith and DJ Stewart all earn very little and performed better than expected or in Peterson's case, not markedly worse by year end.  So that's five who should receive arbitration offers.

Now comes the harder part.  Does the team need to bring back Luis Guillorme?  While no one questions his defense, the fact is with the glut of infielders already on the roster he will not be anything more than a backup.  His hitting has gone downhill during the past couple of years but it's his health that is the bigger issue.  He's not helping the club if he's not available to play.

Another borderline case is a one dimensional player but it's not defense that is his standout skill.  Outfielder Tim Locastro is certainly a capable base stealer and with Starling Marte's health and overall batting condition uncertain it may not be too quick to sever ties with a spare outfielder and pinch runner.  

The one who probably causes the most agita on current roster is big Daniel Vogelbach,  Thus far in his eight year major league career he's worn out his welcome with Seattle, Toronto, Milwaukee and Pittsburgh.  Now the Mets have to decide if his modest paycheck of $2.6 million is worth paying for his home run and RBI production as a part time DH or part time pinch hitter.  He cannot run, cannot field and has a hard time getting on base (while clogging them when he is there).  David Stearns showed him the door while in Milwaukee and it may be time for a sequel to take palce in New York.

Then you have the passel of would-be relief pitchers.  None of Jeff Brigham, Sam Coonrod, John Curtiss nor Elieser Hernandez have done enough to warrant a guaranteed seven figure contract to return, particularly when roster spots are needed for newcomers.  You could make a minor case for Trevor Gott who started off badly but then put together some more solid outings in September. 

So if you went the hard core roster rebuild direction, then you would be looking at sending potentially eight of these thirteen players out the door to make room for others who potentially could be more productive.  It's not necessarily a given that this level of cleaning house will take place and it's also possible that some of the players could be moved in trades rather than simply cut loose.  

On the other hand, if those eight non-guaranteed spots open up, then the Mets have plenty of opportunity to acquire via trades and free agency quite a few new faces who likely could exceed the output Steve Cohen has gotten from any of the players on this list.  It's a gamble but not of the magnitude of record setting salary commitments for people nearing retirement age.