The Baby Mets had two tiers:
TIER ONE:
Francisco Alvarez:
A low average, but 25 HRs at age 20/21?
That screams that great success lies ahead.
TIER TWO:
Baty, Vientos, Mauricio:
The 3 combined for offensive mediocrity: 672 at bats, .217, 20 HRs, 24 doubles, 65 RBIs, a high 211 Ks vs. a low 46 walks.
And shaky D.
Maybe “failure” is too strong a word for the 3 rookies. “Sub par” certainly applies. "Did less well than I expected."
None were in the same competency area code as fellow outstanding rookie Corbin Carroll. I’d offer to trade all 3 for Carroll, and Arizona would simply reply, “are you nuts?”
For the Mets to be successful in 2024, they will have to decide if this trio will improve sufficiently in 2024 to make that happen.
How about 672 at bats, .235, 30 doubles, 30 HRs, 85 RBIs, 175 Ks, 65 walks? Just a modest, doable bump up from 2023. I could live with that.
David Stearn’s job is to evaluate if that improvement will happen.
If he thinks not, trade one or more.
EPPLER INVESTIGATION?
Using the IL for a little wiggle room? If he did it, I'll bet other GMs did too. If there is investigation and punishment of one, investigate and punish all offending GMs. Not just Billy, is my guess.
DESERT DOGGY DOO DOO:
The team the Mets prospects play on in the AFL, the Glendale Desert Dogs, is just 1-5. Anemic offense. Mets players mostly unimpressive so far.
Rowdey Jordan is 4 for 11, 3 doubles, but 3 errors; JT Schwartz 3 for 10; Kevin Parada is 2 for 11; D’Andre Jordan still hitless. No HRs.
Glendale has scored 15 runs in 6 games, while Peoria has scored 66. Figures.
The Mets’ 3 relievers (Clenney, McLoughlin, and Thomas) have combined for 5 scoreless innings so far), which is good, while starter Jordan Geber coughed up 4 runs in 4 innings last night to secure the loss.
WHO’S HAVING FUN NOW?
21 games in, the Mets were having fun, 14-7, and led Philly (9-12) by 5 games.
Yeah, but who’s having the fun now? Phils beat the Braves 2-0 yesterday, in the PLAYOFFS.
Happy and blessed Sunday, mates.
33 comments:
I'm going to write something about the younger pieces regarding who will stay and who will go. There is a bit of a traffic jam of suspects, er, prospects.
In the second half of next year, there are potential callups that could create a bigger traffic jam. This is where the true value of the front office will be tested.
Morning
I too have my concern on the progress if the Baby Mets but in the long run I expect Alvarez to be a consistent 35+ HR .240 hitter and Vientos to be a productive DH
I think the future of the infield won't happen until 2025
Either Acuña or Williams will push Mauricio to third
If Pete leaves Vientos will play first and his and Alvarez increased HR production will make up for the loss of Pete
As for free agency
One warning
Players don't like front office drama/turnover and toxic clubhouses.
May be much harder to sign new players this off season
True to both of you.
Vogelbach’s, Pham’s, Canha’s, and Escobar’s at bats are gone for 2024. It seems that if there is real Stearns confidence in these 3, they get a lot more than 672 at bats this year. Could double…IF they can substantially improve over this year’s output. THAT, however, is a big gamble.
Good Morning Tom,
The following players were obtained via trade last season have to be added to the 40 man roster to avoid being taken in the rule 5 draft. Which of the following would you add? Jeremiah Jackson, Justin Jarvis, Coleman Crow and Landon Marceaux.
Met Fans like to have a competitive team on the field every year but the teams that tanked for several years are now showing that it worked. I have been watching the playoffs and I am impressed with the players on the Orioles, and Diamondbacks. I think these teams will be good for several years because they have young players who are going to around several years plus much more talent coming up in the minors.
What is your feeling about Parada a Stud or Dude?
Raw, I am still waiting to be impressed by Parada. Not a dud, not a stud. I guess that leaves mud.
40 man? I’d clear any dead wood off it, and try to “40 man” Jeremiah Jackson, Justin Jarvis, Coleman Crow and Landon Marceaux. The last 3, due to injury or poor performance in 2023, are not as critical, but Jarvis, bad as he was, could well be a 2024 bullpen arm for the Mets here and there.
I am pretty sure Joander Suarez needs to be added to 40 man. He has to be, or he will be gone.
40 man Jackson
Shite can the.other 3 and write it off as part of BillyGate v2.0
Question…Crow got Tommy John in mid-August, meaning he will miss 2024. Does he still have to be added?
I highly doubt anyone will pick him, anyway, as he needed more minor league innings before he got hurt. When he returns, he will likely need 100 innings to be MLB ready, and that might be most of his 2025 innings pre-limit.
So…the practical answer is no.
I am not sure about Crow. I think some team could pick him and stick him on the 60-day IL. He had some pretty impressive stats prior to his TJ. I think he should be protected.
I saw Jackson a few times in Binghamton. My impression was one of two things - either (a) with one more year of development, starting 2024 in Binghamton, he could be a very good player/hitter or (b) he could be another infield filler that doesn't turn that corner to the big leagues. I really cannot tell. (You might say there are a lot of AA players that are in the either/or category which is true, but the "eye-test" will generally tip the opinion one way or the other. Jackson is different - he shows potential, but not greatness, yet).
As far as another comment above - Vogelbach's at bats are gone in 2024. Is that a sealed fact? He is arbitration eligible this winter, not a free agent. Does that mean they need to non-tender him to release him?
Baty and vientos on the tier 2 line I can see
But Mauricio hasn’t had enough time to be properly evaluated (in my opinion)
But honestly all 3 have not shown enough to be confident in.
I personally would use these 3 as the focus to acquire some pitching.
However If we do trade Pete maybe Mauricio is a 1b option…. Big target …
Mauricio is to me another Baez. Which to me at 500k is a good investment.
But as alway leverage your assists and that may mean trade them.
Eddie
Is MLB punishing Stevie again with this Eppler nonsense? IL manipulation is done by all so why us? Since the Madoff mess our instability in the FO has been otherworldly and must be corrected and I just hope smarty pants Stern is up for the task. We've been down this road sooooo many times before when the blueprint for success is right in front of us every year with the Braves and as much as that hurts we need to plagiarize! Sterns doesn't need to reinvent the wheel here and he of course works for the richest owner in the sport so there's no excuse for failure here so see David I've really set you up for success right.
Ugh... their 40 man is full right now + 5 players on the 60 day IL, including Diaz. They are going to need a lot of culling. I could probably find 10 or 12 spots to slash without a lot more thought.
And back to the headline of the topic . . the new guys:
I used to think Baty would be the second coming of David Wright and be the fixture at third for a long time. But I now tend to think he might be the second coming of Wayne Garrett.
Alvarez is obviously a keeper and at the top of the list. I am coming around to believe that Mauricio is now the third baseman of the future.
I think Baty might be used as something of a sweetener to of a trade package for pitching.
I have never particularly been a Vientos fan. Too one-dimensional for my liking. He may be a place-holder at first if Alonso is traded, but he is not the long term answer. (save this comment so I can eat some crow in about 10 years!! :-) )
Regarding Vogy have we really reached the point where no one on the coaching staff or FO can tell a player "get in shape" and oh by the way lose 100lbs? He seemed to acually get heavier as the season went on and with all the emphasis on conditioning how did he miss the weight room and the dietitian and was allowed to do so? Also as a player wouldn't you think he would take it upon himself to keep in shape considering his place on the roster is tenuous at best or is it just me?
Good questions Gary - another of life's mysteries. Looks like he ate his way out of a longer career.
Amazing how valuable a "prospect" is before he get to the bigs and has time to screw it up. Think Baty and Vientos and how valuable they were before we brought them up and where they stand now. Also consider what the cost was to aquire the talent we received at the deadline with of course no guarantees of future success and I have to believe between Baty Vientos Mauricio Gilbert Acuna Williams and Jackson we can't find 2 or 3 at least to be solid major leaguer's (not counting Alvy as he's already here) Mack would you go after Bellinger if we lose Pete?
Bellinger
As a FA ?
Sure
It's only money right?
But he will never agree to less than 7 yrs
Vientos hopefully will be one dimensional… like Schwarber?
Mark has big fly potential. Give him a full 2024, he’ll hit 30+.
Baty and Wayne Garrett? Can’t argue there.
Mauricio is tier 2 to me only because his first 100 MLB at bats have been promising, but incomplete. Baty looked promising early this year, too.
Bill, you’re right. Lots of 40 man guys should be removed.
Honestly, I think Baty will end his career somewhere between Garrett and Wright. Wayne Garrett was one of my favorite Mets when I was 11 years old - we both had red hair :-)
I do not like the one-dimensional power hitters. Not a Schwarber fan. I will admit that when he gets hot, look out, but when he isn't, he is a black hole in the line-up. I want guys with good BA, OBP, moderate power and some speed. To me, if Nimmo would steal about 20 or 30 bags, he would be my idea of a perfect ballplayer to build a team around.
Bellinger may best fit that profile of any free agent, but I am leery of whether you are signing the 2019/2023 version or the 2020/2021/2022 version. Was it injury related? Did something about LA get into his head? Can he play in NY? I don't know enough about his history to make the call to spend 9 digits of millions on him and lock up roster space for years.
Bill, I am so leery of long term anything in NY. Looks like we got lucky with Senga.
Hence, I would be willing to forfeit 2024 if need be to give Baty, Vientos, Mauricio, Williams and Gilbert at bats a-plenty this year. Huge failed contracts are like massive constipation in the financial pipe, so to speak.
Verlander did throw 6 shutout innings last night - could have been for our guys.
The other V guy, Vogelbach, was 285 in high school. He has a real weight problem. It is about to cost him millions.
I love locking up positions but there is always a risk
Lindor was a great sign
Nimmo is too
Still think the next one should be Pete
I'd like to know more about the "sub-parts" of the Rule 5. I remember years ago reading that after a team loses a player to the Rule 5 they can protect another player, or something like that.
Can anyone here provide more info about that?
Well said, Gary.
Gary, adding players that are good enough for 70 win teams are one thing, developing Corbin Carroll dynamo types is quitea other. We often hope, then they flop.
Bill, I think that is how it works. Fortunately, we likely won’t have anything truly worthwhile to lose in the draft.
Remember 69 I met Wayne Garrett thru a friend of a friend ironically enough in a sports bar in Sarasota were we both live during game 1 2015 WS. Interesting guy and got to see his WS ring. Very impressive for a Brooklyn kid and life long Met fan but I got the impression and I truly understand (he was born in Sarasota) that he will never understand what that WS meant to me and millions of homegrown Met fans.
Tom it's always about quality and for the first time in like forever we have quality and quantity. Also Tom on that massive constipation in the financial pipe thing maybe SC should try more fiber.
Gary, we have quality readers, the rest is up to them.
With the emphasis on adding athleticism and versatility to the team, Vientos makes less sense than the others. He is considerably below average speed and has limited positions he could play at the major league level -- if any. For most of his time at the major league level, he was down in the count 0-2 before he left the batter's box. Baty's swing is fluid, but not efficient. It is a bit long and not as quick as one would like. I think you've underappreciated Mauricio. He's a switch hitter, a versatile fielder who is athletic and has not yet fully grown into his body. He needs plate discipline but of all the baby Mets, including Alvarez, he is the most comfortable looking at the plate. He has a quick bat and with plate discipline and better pitch recognition that bat and what are obviously good quick twitch muscles, he can wait longer on pitches than most and that usually translates into more balls hit hard and in play. He is also + speed and has a + arm. Alvarez right now has one major flaw in his swing in addition to not adjusting when the count is against him, and that is opening his lead shoulder too quickly which makes him extremely vulnerable to off speed curves and sliders -- especially those down and away. Mauricio has the most plate coverage of the group as well. Of the four Alvarez and Mauricio are quality major league keepers. 2of4 BTW is remarkable success level. I disagree about adding Bellinger only if Alonso leaves. He is a risk though. He played this past year in a hitter friendly park (i don't know his splits), but he plays excellent CF and can spell with excellent defense at first. He offers the promise of having someone in the lineup who can cover for Alonso. If you look at the recent Mets draft and the talent they picked up in the deadline trades you notice an emphasis on drafting middle infielders and pitchers, and that's because you can't have enough pitching and middle infielders are typically the most athletic players on their teams at all levels before pro ball. Versatility; depending upon arm strength they can play a lot of major league positions. Frankly there are a few players in the minors who should be projected to join the major league club in a year or two, which for me, translates into decision making on the FA market. I would consider a play for Bellinger, not Ohtani -- the contract will likely be too long and if he doesn't return as A/A- starting pitcher, that's paying an awful lot for a DH. He would be the best ever at the position, but rational investment is always based on considering the difference in price for your second best alternative (in terms of expected productivity). The rest of FA money other than for bench support should go to the bullpen, two mid tier starting pitchers and Yamomota. Eppler had two major failings, three actually. In some ways, the third is the worst and that was not going all in for talent at the trade deadline in 2022. The second was the deadline trades in 2022 for Ruf and Vogelback, not just because they both suck; but also because of what he gave up for them: a quality bullpen arm and JD Davis, who struggles with + fastballs, but so too did V and R; and Davis doesn't struggle with much else and can play a position. The biggest failure was in bullpen construction: one lefty, so no spot lefty; losing Trevor Williams and not having a long reliever spot starter. In the modern game, that is incomprehensible. Look what a strong bullpen has meant to the Astros and Phillies, neither of whose starting pitching would wow a knowledgeable observer. And finally, while money matters a lot, it can cover up for mistakes as well, but it will never be more valuable than good judgment and a thoughtful, and executable plan
Very well said JC. Great thoughts! Would you be good if I pulled this comment out and entered it as a separate article as a 'guest viewpoint'? It will get more reads than being here at the end of the comments.
Post a Comment