Reese Kaplan -- The 2024 Two-Man Starting Rotation

If you took a poll to ask media and fans what the Mets' biggest problem to solve is right now, you'd get a variety of answers.  Obviously they need more hitting.  With Buck Showalter gone they need to secure a new field manager.  No one knows the health of long term injured players like Edwin Diaz and Starling Marte.  They need relief pitching.  They need a DH.  They need outfielders.  All of these statements are very true.

The biggest issue, however, may be who forms the starting rotation (and who is going to lead them).  These two questions are very different indeed.  

Right now the givens for the fearsome five are well known. Kodai Senga exceeded even the most optimistic projections as an in-his-prime starting pitcher migrating to the major leagues from 10 years of playing in Japan.  In the beginning there were a few adjustment starts, but by year end he finished leading the team in wins, had over 200 strikeouts and an ERA of just 2.98.  

Yes, he is your current ace (which is somewhat ironic considering how giddy everyone was in the past offseason when the Mets had not one but two future Hall of Famers in their rotation who have since been put out to pasture).  

The next one is also a no-brainer in Jose Quintana.  After starting the season with a non-pitching injury that kept him shelved for half the season, the fact is that he earned his paycheck in the second half, delivering start after start of competitive pitching.  On a stellar staff he might be a third starter, but as things sit right now he's number two.

Here's the scary part.  That's it.  The Mets enter the 2024 season with a two-man pitching rotation.  Yes, they do have other options like David Peterson, Tylor Megill, Jose Butto and Joey Lucchesi, but in anyone's eyes they are at best emergency starters and not providing the quality and consistency needed for someone getting the ball every five days.  

Consequently David Stearns and Billy Eppler have some major shopping to do.  The question is who are they buying and how much of Steve Cohen's money will they be spending?

Leading off pretty much everyone's list is Yoshinobu Yamamoto, a 25 year old preparing to depart from the Orix Buffaloes and make his way into the majors.  Given his somewhat slight stature of 5'10" and under 170 pounds you wouldn't think he'd throw very hard, but he hits above 95 regularly while using a split finger pitch to generate a lot of infield practice as well as swings and misses.  His curve ball has an unusual release and the difference between it and the other two pitches make him a confounding hurler for batters to dominate.  

In each of his past two seasons he's won the equivalent of Japan's Cy Young honors as well as MVP and his numbers suggest he might make it three straight this year.  His control is better than only 4 current major league pitchers.  He's going to be scouted heavily by pretty much all teams, but with Shohei Ohtani's pitching on the shelf for 2024, Yamamoto becomes the top free agent pitcher hailing from Japan.  

Scouts say that as good as Senga is, he's considered a full grade better and should be the number one pitcher on any team he joins.  Being a full five years younger and performing at a higher level, he's going to command a much bigger investment which got higher given Senga's dominant performance piquing curiosity and Ohtani's inability to pitch.  Figure at least $25 million per season for 4-6 years.

Somewhat on the down low also hailing from Japan is 29 year old southpaw Shota Imanaga currently playing for the Yokohama DeNa Baystars. His biggest asset is control.  While throwing four pitches in the low 90s is a good thing, it's his walk rate and use of all areas of the strike zone that resulted in a season long 2.26 ERA recently.  Being a little older and less heavily scouted than Yamamoto, he would be an attractive and less costly option to consider.

On the domestic front there are plenty of options to consider but Mr. Cohen better be prepared to empty his wallet.  Aaron Nola is a free agent and sticking it to the Phillies after they did the same to the Mets with Zack Wheeler and Taijuan Walker would be a nice thing indeed.

Julio Urias is a mega talented pitcher who seems to have decimated his desirability and future net worth with his ongoing domestic violence issues.  Like former teammate Trevor Bauer before him, don't expect him to be fielding a bidding war from many teams if he's allowed to pitch at all.

Blake Snell is a good candidate to earn a Cy Young award at the exact right time as he hits free agency.  He currently earns $16 million for the Padres and while he likely at age 30 looks to double that annual rate, his career numbers are quite good but not among the game's best.  a $28 million or so per year rate might be appropriate.

The next group of prospective for-sale types include the surprisingly effective Jordan Montgomery, veteran Sonny Gray and others who are generally solid but not at an elite level.  You can bet the front office and the revamped analytics department will turn over every stone attempting to identify folks who could be mound magicians.  

The last issue to consider is who will be the pitching coach.  Despite the relative success Jeremy Hefner has shown previously in the role, a new manager is likely going to want to bring in his own people.  Hefner may get shown the exit door despite not really deserving the boot.