Tyler Stuart was on a roll coming into 2024. He was an extraordinary pitching prospect who led the minors in ERA (2.20) among qualified pitchers last year. He had a solid spring, and pitched a perfect inning in this year’s Spring Breakout game against the best of the Nationals’ prospects.
First, let me give you a few words about why Tyler Stuart was such a bright prospect. He is an imposing 6’9” 250 lb right hander with a mid-90’s fastball and an arsenal of five different pitches he can throw for strikes. He came into this season filled with confidence and excited about throwing his new fifth pitch, a cutter. He is not a demonstrative guy, but you can tell from his presence that he knows what he wants to do and that is to impose his will upon opposing batters.
Unfortunately, the season has not gone as planned. Stuart brought a 1-4 record with a 4.32 ERA into last night’s game. In ten starts he had five no decisions and the 1-4 record and had given up 53 hits in 50 innings. Something was not working. I had to see for myself, so I attended his latest start for the AA Binghamton Rumble Ponies against last year’s EL champion Somerset Patriots (Yankees AA club). It did not go well.
Stuart threw only two innings, giving up six hits, five earned runs, a walk, and two stolen bases. What struck me was that those six hits were all very well hit, and almost all against his hard stuff. His velocity was fine – his fastball was being clocked between 94-96 mph, and his curve ball was in the 81-82 mph range so he clearly had enough speed differential to keep batters off balance.
The problem was that they did not seem to be off balance at all. Credit the Yanks – they also hit Jordan Geber and Junior Santos pretty well after Stuart left the mound. But this was more about Stuart’s struggles than the Yankees AA team batting approach.
Stuart dominated in the A and AA levels last year because he could throw all of his pitches for strikes. He pitched ahead in the count and then used his mix to force little or no contact. This year he has not been out in front. Coming into last night’s action, he had thrown only 528 of 821 pitches for strikes (64%). That is an acceptable ratio if you are throwing 100mph, but since everyone throws in the 90’s now, you have to command the strike zone to force light contact with a mix of pitches.
Setbacks such as this are very common in the minor leagues. Pitchers reach a level where their stuff is no longer overwhelming to the opposing batters because the competition gets better at every level. You learn from it, improve, and move on – or you fail to advance. I still have a great deal of confidence in Tyler Stuart and I expect that last year’s pitching coach of the year AJ Sager is working with him every day to adjust the approach.
Flash back to Stuart’s pre-season interviewinterview in April. He was working to get more consistency in his pitches and learning to throw the cutter and pitch up in the zone. The minor leagues are an experiment that either builds a successful repertoire or teaches you what you can’t do.
I think Mike Vasil has been going through the same thing in Syracuse – a good pitcher finding out where the limits are. Let’s hope that both are able to make the appropriate adjustments soon and continue their path towards the big leagues.
7 comments:
Paul,
This is off the subject, but is Tomas Nido a possible trade candidate to a team such as the Phillies who have a short term catching need?
I would like to see us get at least a prospect back from some of DFA's.
Thoughts?
Stuart must be learning something from his 2024 adversity. He needs to ignore the results to date. Make the rest of this season come in with a 2.50 ERA.
Suarez was bad into early July last year, great after that. I wonder if Suarez is better long term than Stuart.
Suarez has had about 3 AA stinkers this year, but dominant in the rest. Suarez a little younger (months) and the two have virtually the same AA innings in their career (mid 70 innings). Suarez AA career 3.10, Stuart 4.45.
Paul, if you could only pick one….which would you pick and why?
D J, this seems to well summarize the Nido situation: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/new-york-mets
Hi Tom,
I’m a long time Mets fan, bleeding Blue and Orange since 86’. I’ve watched for these decades as the Mets have come into contention for just a short while and then out again for many years showing no consistency.
I know each regime brings its own demons, whether it was ownership or management or just players unable to perform or freak injuries like Diaz in 23’.
However, I have never understood how this farm system seems to so infrequently develop strong relief pitching hope in the minors that can execute in the bigs.
There are so few actual home grown relief success stories from one regime to the next. In 24, here we are again, light on any help from the system.
What is it that you’ve seen from the new management of the farm system that might provide hope that we can start to bring relievers up from the top two levels to be successful with the big club?
Also, I’ve seen that this year has been abysmal for most of our prospects in the power department and even though the biggest prospects are injured, none have been projected for big power and strong plate discipline. Do you see anything with the system under Stearns’ group that gives us hope for better prospect management and development?
In response to DJ's comment, I think that Nido would definitely help the Phillies and if there is trade value there, the front office should be pursuing it. Nido knows some of the Philly pitchers already (Wheeler, Walker) because he caught them in New York. Nido may not hit like Realmuto, but he plays great defense and comes up with some timely hits. there is a starting pitcher named Robinson Pina that plays for their AA team that I would take in an even up trade for Nido.
Tom, tough call on Stuart vs Suarez. They are both guys with a lot going for them. Suarez really put up some numbers in the second half last year, including a no-hitter. That said I like Stuart best - he has a great mix of pitches, a rugged build (hopefully less injury-prone), and a great "do my job" mentality that should play in the long term. He just has to make his pitches a little more un-hittable and improve his move to first base.
Paul, hopefully we go 2 for 2 with them.
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