Paul Articulates – Too close, but not close enough.

 <Sorry if this is a bit of a buzz kill after the Mets have won five in a row, but rational thought must overcome unrealistic enthusiasm>

The New York Mets’ 2024 season has been a story of too close, but not close enough.  During the pre-season we thought the team was close to achieving the goal of building a champion.  The baby Mets were maturing, the development system was loaded with prospects, and Kodai Senga was our new ace.

Even before the season began, some of this began to unravel as the pursuit of stars like Yamamoto failed, then Senga got hurt, and Megill went down with a shoulder strain.  David Peterson’s recovery was delayed and the pitching staff suddenly felt thin.  

The starters that remained healthy failed to go more than five innings in almost every game during the months of April and May, which stressed the bullpen.  The team’s ERA was one of the best in the NL in April at 3.50 but then plummeted to a NL-worst 4.85 in May.  Close became not close enough, and the team sunk ten games below .500.

There was hope in the minors as many of the prospects had strong seasons in 2023 and fans hoped that they were close to being called up to provide a boost to the big league club.  Not close enough though, as the rising stars like Vasil, Hamel, and Acuna have underperformed in 2024 delaying their “MLB readiness” rating.  Others like Jett Williams and Drew Gilbert have been set back by injury, also delaying their future.  

Back in NY, there were several underperforming veterans that were contributing to a starving offense, with big names like Alonso, Lindor, McNeil, and Nimmo languishing with batting averages in the low 200’s.  Several times in May and early June they would put up a good game and fans hoped that they were “close” to returning to form.  

Only Lindor has gotten there, slashing .287/.358/.481 in the last 30 days.  With a schedule that should have contributed to a boost in the standings, the inability to score consistently turned into a 9-19 record in May.  This was not close to any of our expectations.

Of course, the Mets could have scored more if all those balls caught at the warning track were actually over the fence.  The fences are not close enough, I guess.

With the team underperforming enough to forebode a trade deadline sell-off,  the Mets have now gone on a mini winning streak.  This gets them close enough in the wild card standings to make some say, “Wait, don’t sell…we still have a chance!”.  The team is only two games back of the last wild card spot, creating the impression that they are close to being a playoff team.  

This streak could create some pause amongst the front office folks who were ready to re-read Mack’s “Blow it up” post.  My advice is: read it closely and act upon it.  With this team, in this year, “close” is not close enough.  Here are my reasons why they should not alter the course.

• The Mets have been in many close games this year – too many.  They don’t win enough of those close games because they don’t have the mental toughness to scratch out runs when they really need and they don’t pile on when the team gets a good lead.  Let’s face it – even though this team has many talented ballplayers, they are lacking “winners”.  

If there was a stat for clutch hits, this team would be at the bottom of the league.  That has more to do with controlling mental state in key at-bats than luck.  Since you can’t read it on a stat line, you only know it when you see it.  There are very few players on this team that deliver clutch hits.  Move them while you can and let the young ones move up to see what they can deliver.

• The Mets do not have starting pitchers that can deliver length.  There have been way too few seven inning starts, and the result is a fatigued bullpen before we even hit the dog days of summer.  Because of that, the team can’t hold a lead if they get one.  Down the stretch if we were indeed able to be in a wild card race, that fatigued bullpen would cost us.  So if the front office can get a return on pitchers like Quintana, Manaea, and Houser they should make the deal.

• The “plan” a few years ago was to develop all the talent in the minor league system and build a championship team around a core of young players.  Baty has struggled but Alvarez still has the makings of a star, Vientos has done well with his long-awaited opportunity, and Mauricio looked great before his injury.  With many talented players still in the minors, there is no better time to get them some MLB experience than this mediocre season.  

It would be much more strategic to get them some experience and see who can cut it against major league talent than to chase a wild card slot that the team couldn’t capitalize on if they got one.  Baty has been an example of someone that needs time to figure out how to succeed at the MLB level. How many of the others need that time?

• The Mets are still paying an extraordinary amount of salary to a bunch of aging veterans that are not going to be around for the next championship run.  Any money that can be recouped at the trade deadline is more buying power for when it will have the greatest effect.

The bottom line here is that “close” is not close enough.  The team as currently built is too expensive, does not have the mental makeup  to win a championship, and needs to develop the talent that is waiting in the wings behind a veteran lineup that has had its chances.  David Stearns should do what he has to at the trade deadline to put this team back on course for a future championship.