The New York Mets have made it very difficult on their front office this year. By underperforming for a majority of the early season, then sprinting back into contention for a wild card berth, the team has put the front office in the unenviable position of having to choose between a core rebuild of this team and a desperate search for pieces that will hold this team together for a playoff run.
You have heard from many of us at Mack’s Mets about our opinions on how to move forward. From “blowing it up” to adding a few arms, the approaches have filled the spectrum of choices. David Stearns is probably thinking, “Boy it wasn’t this hard in Milwaukee”. The unfortunate reality is that you really can’t build the team and keep the fans happy at the same time. Fans have latched on to the latest winning streak as hope for a relevant season and they want to squeeze every win possible from this roster. The numbers guys know that the current streak is an anomaly that doesn’t fit with the models so they are expecting the team to drop back to the .438 winning percentage that is the most probable outcome.
So with the fan base in one ear and the data scientists in the other, Stearns must choose a path forward. Tough choices are on the way. After a lost season in 2023, and the one-and-done disappointment of an otherwise successful 2022 season, do you doom the fan base to another post-season of watching someone else’s team celebrate, or do you provide instant gratification by squeezing out 10 more wins this season at the cost of not winning a championship for at least a few more?
So far the approach has been to “wait and see”. As Tom pointed out yesterday, the Mets are facing the 7th easiest schedule in baseball for the next 90 games, so the chances for making the last wild card position seem fairly good. The way the team is playing, they could be in a playoff position rather than looking up at one within the next four weeks when decision time is upon us. That only makes it harder because a wild card game is about the best we can expect. I don’t see a run at the Phillies for a division title or a run at the Dodgers for a NL pennant as very likely. So it is really about a game or two in the playoffs. How much would you sacrifice for that?
There are so many teams in contention right now that it is also unlikely that there will be a great number of sellers when the trade deadline approaches. That means less quality players available, and the ones that are will command a very high price. You are not going to find some promising young starting pitcher with 3 years of team control available. You are more likely to find an overpriced aging veteran with a short duration until free agency. The Mets have tried that path with the Scherzers and Verlanders in the past and it has not gone well. I can’t see them trying that tactic again.
The strategic vision for this team is to build a sustainable winner, which has to be based upon a youthful roster to achieve sustainability. That does not exclude certain core players that will provide stability, so expect that the current stars under extended contracts like Francisco Lindor, Edwin Diaz, and Brandon Nimmo will still be here. The high potential players like Senga, Alvarez, Mauricio, and Vientos will be retained. I still believe that the Mets will go all-in on Pete Alonso and he will want to stay in New York. But the rest of the aging stars are going to be made available. JD Martinez, Jeff McNeil, Starling Marte, and a handful of the current starters and bullpen pitchers are going to be open for bids. That does not mean that they will all go. If offers are not to the benefit of this team’s future growth, then they will not be accepted. But if my prediction is correct, there will be many more buyers than sellers, and the offers will be pretty sweet.
I don’t envy the front office guys, because the decisions will be tough, and the fans will not be pleased in the short term. Baseball is a business first and foremost, so the guys that get paid to run the business have to make the hard choices. I just hope they really do benefit this team because the fan base that has stuck with this team through so many difficult years really deserves a winner.
9 comments:
Very few productive bats to be had this season
Well said, Paul. Need to recognize that this is not our year. Making the playoffs would be nice but not by sacrificing our future.
Can we do both, not sacrifice the year, and still position for 2025?
I think the team as it stands now, as compared to when they were 23-34, is this:
1) Hitting is much better, and I think Baty will return and Stewart will go, allowing McNeil if he does not re-emerge, to be traded for a bucket of balls.
2) Starting pitching is much improved due to injury returns and rejuggling rotation, and Senga hopefully is back starting in 3-4 weeks.
3) Bullpen is much improved with a return of the real Edwin, and the real emergence of Dedniel, not to mention the slide to the pen of Houser.
That said, if the Orioles wanted to give us a prospect today and pick up Quintana's salary, I'm listening.
The Dodgers were counting on Ferris Beuhler, but he has been garbage and now has a real hip problem. If the Mets could sneak thru the WC round, anything is possible. A Yanks/Mets world series would be nice.
Tom, I think that the "both" you mentioned is entirely possible because not everyone on the list of "tradeables" will actually be acquired by another team because we define the terms in a sellers' market. My point was to do the right thing for the team, and if that makes you a little weaker this year that is OK.
Paul, I hear you.
I do not think bringing up Scott and perhaps Butto now, and Sproat in a month or so, would make us weaker. It might make us stronger. No doubt, Stearns is looking and wondering if these Mets are sustainably real or not.
If we traded for one, where would he play?
Nice piece, Paul. You hit on the key point that makes this all so difficult. This is going to be an extreme seller’s market. How many contenders do you think would love to add JD Martinez to their lineup for the stretch drive and playoffs for $3-4 million? My guess is a lot of them. Or Bader in place of a weak hitting CF? Or Sevarino to their rotation? In a year when 3/4 of the league could be buyers, it’s a tremendous opportunity to bring back multiple high-ceiling prospects. That said, how do you tell this fan base that you’re not “going for it” if the team has a realistic shot at the playoffs, even if much of this team will be gone next year anyway? I trust Stearns, and the very long leash he almost certainly has, to make good decisions here, but the pressure to appease the fans in the immediate term is nevertheless going to be difficult to resist, even at the cost of missing a unique opportunity (multiple productive/valuable expiring contracts in a seller’s market) to improve the org’s longer-term health and viability.
Great recap on this current situation - one potential approach to take would be to bring up Scott, Butto, Acuna, Baty and let them participate/experience/contribute to a real pennant race. This helps build a "winning culture", lets the youngsters get a real taste, very early in their careers (vs being called up in September after we are eliminated - not a winning culture), tests their mettle and would be a lot of fun for the fans - especially if they pull it off. We need to make calls on all but Acuna this year or trade them this off season because Baty, Butto, Megill, Petersen all are out of options next year so lets see what they have during a pennant chase. I think this could solve both the dilemma.
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