Reese Kaplan -- Breathe Deeply and Reconsider the Roster Needs

As we approach midweek in mid June the Mets are approaching an important crossroads.  As of close of business on Monday they find themselves a single game behind the Washington Nationals ahead of them in the division.  That forward progress is certainly doable within 2-3 games. 

What’s even more surprising is that they are now 5.5 games behind the once formidable Atlanta Braves who currently trail the first place Philadelphia Phillies by 8 games.  A 5.5 game deficit is also not insurmountable and a few hot weeks by the Mets coinciding with cold weeks by Fulton County’s no-longer finest could bridge that difference as well.

The other number that jumps out at you is the team record.  They are no longer more than a double digit figure below a .500 record.  After beating the Rangers soundly the Mets now stand 3 games under a season-long do-over with a record of 34-37.  Once they manage to achieve a balanced .500 record a lot of the anguish and gastric distress from having failed in the field, on the mount and at the plate will have flown out the nearest window.

Now let’s not get ahead of ourselves with these performance metrics.  A .500 record, for example, is a sign of great progress but it also signifies you are equally likely to lose a game as you are to win one.  It’s not a cause for celebration but having endured an entire 2023 season without anything to praise, it shows that the direction envisioned is actually starting to happen. 

The more significant numbers to focus on as a fan are the won-loss records of the immediately adjacent Washington Nationals as well as the once untouchable Atlanta Braves.  Right now if they Mets set immediate and reachable goals of capturing the 2nd place position in the National League East then they have a great opportunity to make something of heretofore nothing in the 2024 season.

Of course, getting to the playoffs would be everyone’s not-so-hidden fantasy, but most folks would be content with baby steps in the right direction.  No one is going to capture the Phillies, so the best the Mets could hope for is second place an entry into the Wild  Card round in October.  If that happens, then the first years of David Stearns and Carlos Mendoza will have exceeded nearly everyone’s expectations. 

There are still quite a few ifs to consider and a basic realization that a surprisingly improved 2024 team does not portend itself to repeat in 2025 with the same cast of characters.  We’ve already gone over who is expendable, who is on a short term expiring contract and who might have to be paid down to make them appealing to other ballcllubs.  No, now the question becomes what is it that the Mets need if a modest, moderate or wholesale sell off occurs in July. 

It would seem that going forward the Mets have deficits in the outfield.  Some of the more highly regarded minor leaguers are not likely ready to make the leap to The Show after slow starts and lingering injuries curtailed their numbers for this year.  Brandon Nimmo and Starling Marte are both under contract for next year but Marte’s resurgence with his bat and decline with his glove suggest that trading him away a year before his contract ends after 2025 rather than hoping for a 4th year flourish. 

On the infield it is a bit busier assuming Francisco Lindor, Mark Vientos and Francisco Alavarez are part of the core.  Throw in Ronny Mauricio for one of the open slots at second or third and make an eventual decision on Brett Baty’s immediate future and it would appear that infielders are not the highest priority. 

Starting pitching is most definitely an area where the Mets need improvement.  Someday Kodai Senga returns.  David Peterson and Tylor Megill are here already.  Jose Quintana is a free agent and Sean Manaea has an opt-out which he’ll likely exercise if he can get his slightly-above 4.00 ERA down under.  Jose Butto and Christian Scott are the next arms to consider and it’s possible they could fulfill the roles of the free-agents-to-be, but after Senga that rotation is a bit shaky and prone to some unpredictability.

The one name not yet mentioned is defacto ace Luis Severino who has put together a very fine 2024 season after no one knew what to expect given his horrific 2023.  The Mets either can make a gesture towards a contract extension now while they have the exclusive right to do so, or they can trade him away for a fairly significant return if they feel he will just walk away anyway.

The bullpen is the other area where the Mets truly need to rebuild.  While it may be premature to declare it a 100% certainty, the fact is that it sure felt good to see the last few appearances by closer Edwin Diaz.  After that it’s a big washout with other players needing contract extensions as they are out of options or they are set to become free agents.  The exceptions would appear to be Dedniel Nunez and Syracuse Met Danny Young.  That’s a whole lot of empty bullpen seats for next season. 

So if I’m David Stearns entertaining who or what I need to make some midyear trades, it would appear that outfielders, young starting pitchers and young relievers are at the top of the list.  The not-very-respectable bench could use some reinforcements but other than lost cause deals like Jose Quintana you wouldn't expect to obtain those types of pieces at this juncture.  They can wait until the off season.  For now it's who will fill the primary outfielder and pitching roles moving forward.