Reese Kaplan -- Will the Mets Win, Lose or Draw?

The big headline on Wednesday is that the Mets actually lost a game!  It seemed nearly impossible to consider after going something like 11-2 in their last 13 games and having just won seven in a row with multiple come-from-behind victories for the highlight reel.

“What happened?  Where did it all go wrong?  I told you there were no good!”

To hear Mets fans, media types and casual observers, they’re on a see-saw between everything being good and everything being bad with no balance achievable at any time.  Here’s a hint.  The club is not a 100 loss team any more than they are a 100 win team.  They have issues that they need to address and they have players performing for most of the season well below what was anticipated based upon their career norms. 

So if you are the front office right now, what would you do?  Do you buy to bolster the flawed team?  Do you sell to cash in on assets that will be leaving at year’s end?  Do you do nothing and count on the team actually playing as you had anticipated?  While there are pros and cons to each of these approaches, let’s take a moment to consider each one.

Make the 2024 Roster Way Better

Well, there is some merit here as reeling off a jubilant June after a maddening May suggests that they are better than they have previously shown.  Yes, there are issues.  The bullpen is mostly made of older minor league veterans to support Edwin Diaz, Adam Ottavino and Jake Diekman.  If you’re still plodding in the AA and AAA levels or playing independent ball when your age is approaching 30, chances are you are not going to Cooperstown except as a tourist.  The starters have been a bit up and down so they are not a sure thing either.  Look at pitchers who are not just 2 month rentals, but who could also be around next year when the huge number of expiring contracts on the Mets create vacancies.

Outfield offensive production from the primary three — Brandon Nimmo, Starling Marte and Harrison Bader are actually better than many anticipated, but the backups offer a big drop-off in metrics.  The defense you get from Tyrone Taylor makes him acceptable in his role but guys who hit better than D.J. Stewart are often cast away in the hopes of greater productivity.

Now that Francisco Alvarez is back and seeming to have recovered fully from his thumb injury, Francisco Lindor is hitting, Pete Alonso is hitting, Mark Vientos is hitting, well, the only real weak link resides at second base.  You gave Jeff McNeil all of 2023 to get back on track and we’re about to hit the halfway point of 2024 seeing him get worse instead of better.  It’s unlikely the Mets will enter into a long term deal for a middle infielder with Jose Igelesias already here, Ronny Mauricio available for 2025 and others in the mix, but a rental type of player for the balance of the year would be an interesting get.  Think a Javier Baez type of acquisition for what he did with his bat, not with his gestures nor mouth.  Explore who is on an expiring contract who could add another bat to the infield mix.

Clean House — They’re Not This Good

This reaction is one part emotional and one part business savvy.  The Mets need to reduce payroll so that additions via free agency won’t cost them significantly more due to obligations already on the books.  The emotional one is much tougher to solve as you can’t simply dump them all and expect 2025 will be magically better. 

Minor Incremental Changes Are Sufficient to Contend

Now this approach runs contrary to the buy ‘em vs. sell ‘em polar extremes.  Many businesses understand it takes awhile for your performance, message and quality to gel.  Rushing to rid yourselves of less productive players can bite you in the back, but it could also spell identifying the next J.D. Davis or the next Daniel Vogelbach (both of whom were DFA’d this week).  Sometimes you stumble across someone who appears to be far better than you anticipated like Luis Torrens.  Other times you are banking on a .180 hitter somehow to become Tony Gwynn.  That’s not likely to happen.

Small changes could indeed help improve the team such as a temporary infielder, a better bench and improved pitching.  However, it takes both a clever talent magnifying glass to identify who would meet your needs without the fans and media scratching their heads and unifying to ask, “Who?” when you announce the newest member of the Mets. 

None of these approaches by themselves are 100% right or wrong, but it does appear changes are indeed necessary to shape the team not just for the remainder of this season but for the future as well.  The question is does David Stearns have plans A, B and C already in hand and is he willing to both enjoy and endure the feelings of the fans and media if the changes made do not amount to their intended improvements?