Paul Articulates – When the trade winds start blowing

The New York Mets have swept a three game series from the Washington Nationals.  In that three game span, the Mets scored 23 runs, banged out 37 hits, and recorded 65 total bases.  Maybe not too little, but certainly too late.  

Even with the sweep, the Mets remain 8 games under .500, and sit 16.5 games behind the Phillies in the NL East standings.  With a series coming up against the Phillies where the Mets will face the top two pitchers in a pitch strong Philadelphia lineup, they are likely to drop back to 10 games under .500 with only 44 games to play before the trade deadline.  Amongst those 44 games they will see the likes of last year’s World Series champion Texas Rangers, the Yankees, Astros, and the Padres.  The window of opportunity to be competitively relevant has passed.

With the extremely high probability that the Mets will be sellers at the deadline, people are already speculating about individuals who might be on the trade block.  My guess is that almost all of them might be on the trade block because there is an extreme lack of winning mentality among this group, so it is more than just numbers that might compel the front office to move players.

Mack’s popular but very controversial “Blow it up” post last month took a financial perspective of moving players to facilitate a rebuild around the abundant prospects in the minors with selective acquisitions from the free agent market to compensate.  I will take a very different approach here by putting the shoe on the other foot and viewing the Mets players as valuables on the shelf of a high-end store with 31 suitors doing the shopping.  There are several shelves that the Mets front office will have on display.

The Top Shelf – these are players with high value that will only be moved for a high price

• Edwin Diaz – although Diaz has had problems finding his brilliance after last year’s injury, he is still one of the league’s top closers and will likely return to that status at some point.
• Kodai Senga – Senga was superb last year as a first year player, and the Mets would not be willing to give that up very easily even though this year’s injury has lingered much longer than expected.
• Pete Alonso – Pete will always go through ups and downs in his career, but he is one of the top two or three power hitters in baseball and plays with passion.  He is a NY hero, and although he will likely command a high price in free agency he would be very hard (and expensive) to replace.
• Harrison Bader – With Nimmo struggling and Bader producing both on offense and defense, the Mets are not going to part with Bader for anything less than an eye-watering deal.  This may not have been their plan going in, but with Jett Williams and Drew Gilbert injured and LA Acuna not destroying AAA pitching it will be awhile before the Mets can go without their center fielder.

The Designer Label Shelf – these are players with strong pedigree but price exceeds worth

• Starling Marte – His past statistics both on offense and defense plus his current salary makes him pricey.  But despite moments where he flashes his tremendous ability, his lack of motivation is a liability to this team.
• JD Martinez – His reputation as a professional hitter is well deserved, and he was a tremendous bargain this year when the Mets picked him up late on a one-year deal.  However, he is not part of the rebuild and has not demonstrated clutch hitting that a team would need when paying full free agent value for him.

The Dusty Shelf – these are players with high price tags that won’t be valued as much by buyers

• Brandon Nimmo – Nimmo was handsomely rewarded with his 8-year contract extension because of his performance and his dedication to continuously improving.  This year he has had a large and inexplicable set-back which makes his value much lower than teams would have to pay by picking up his contract.
• Jeff McNeil – Much like Nimmo, the former batting champion was rewarded with a generous contract extension but has gone into a deep slump.  His versatility as a multi-position defender and great bat-to-ball hitter could get attention, but he is over 32 years old and owed $40M through 2027.
• Tylor Megill – His two years of remaining team control are attractive, but Megill has not demonstrated consistent performance or health over the last four years.  I think the Mets still believe in him and will hold out for a high price. 
• David Peterson – David also has a remaning year of team control and also has struggled with consistent performance and health in his career.  Results from recent surgeries seem very positive so the Mets will likely overprice him.

The Price is Right Shelf – these are players that teams may find valuable and the Mets could move

• Drew Smith – Smith has some great potential but has never realized it as a Mets pitcher.  He reminds me of Paul Sewald who found tremendous success  by finally realizing his potential with another team.  Unless Smith has some lights-out performances in June/July, the Mets will likely move him for an attractive price.
• Sean Manaea – Manaea has shown flashes of success, but his inability to consistently hit the strike zone work against him being a long-time Met.  Many teams would still be willing to gamble on the prospect of one mechanical change making him a superb deal.
• Luis Severino – Severino has done very well in a Mets uniform, and has earned his keep.  However, with all of the pitching prospects in the Mets organization I don’t believe that Luis is in the long term plan, so the Mets would move him for the right price.
• Jake Diekman – Who wouldn’t want a lefty with Diekman’s ability?  He had some great appearances with the Mets but has fallen apart recently, so the Mets will be willing to accept an offer for him.  That’s too bad in my book because he would have continued his strong performance if not overused.
• Reed Garrett – I would make the same argument for Garrett as with Diekman.  Garrett would not be struggling right now if he was not overused in April or May.  But he will be traded long before the source of his problem (Mendoza) gets it right.
• Tomas Nido – After many years of contributing strong defense and some clutch hits for the Mets, Nido finally gets moved for his low batting average.  Lots of teams will be interested.
• Jose Iglesias – As a strategic utility pickup, Iglesias is earning next year’s salary by showing well in recent games at second base.  His slick fielding and unexpected contributions at the plate will bring the Mets a good deal here.  They will not hold him back as there are several prospects lined up to take the 2B position behind McNeil.
• Tyrone Taylor – Tyrone has earned his spot as the Mets 4th outfielder, and should be valued by the front office, but with the right offer he will go.
• Adrian Houser – Houser failed as a starter, but has shown value as a long reliever.  This keeps him on the team unless there is a good offer out there.  With all the pitching talent in the minors, he could be replaced.

The Bargain Rack – these are players that the front office will offer at a discount to move them

• Jose Quintana – This year’s opening day starter has underperformed all season and his vulnerability to the long ball has been demoralizing for him and the team.  Any and all offers will be accepted.
• DJ Stewart – There was great hope at the end of last season and in spring training this year that DJ could be a viable DH for the Mets with the ability to be a backup outfielder.  His prolonged slump evaporated that hope.
• Adam Ottovino – Otto has been all or nothing in his appearances this year.  In the rebuild plan, his chances are nothing.

Not in stock – these players will not be offered

• Francisco Lindor – Lindor is under contract for too much money for any deal to make sense.  Although he has not proven to be the offensive player or clutch hitter many expected, his defense and leadership make him important to build the new team around.
• Francisco Alvarez – Alvarez has the makings of a future star, and the Mets will not give this up.
• Mark Vientos – Things change pretty quickly when you prove you can hit!  The same guy who just couldn’t get a real chance on an underperforming team has finally gotten his chance and took full advantage.  Now the Mets would be reluctant to send him anywhere but up to the plate.
• Danny Young – Too early and too much team control to give up on Danny.
• Dedniel Nunez – Same logic here.
• Brett Baty – Baty will continue to bounce between the minor leagues and the big league club until either someone beats him for the 3B job or another full year passes.  Until then there is too much risk to let him go.