If you want to start a buy vs. sell debate in earnest with Mets fans then it boils down to a single name. It is not Pete Alonso. It is not Edwin Diaz. It is not Sean Manaea. It is not Jose Quintana. It is not Jeff McNeil. It is not Starling Marte. No, let the name Luis Severino roll from your lips and brace for the fireworks.
Remember when David Stearns proudly declared he had signed former crosstown rival Severino to be one of five starting pitchers for the Mets for a salary of $13 million. While he had some decent years in 2017 and 2018, the fact is that Severino is hurt quite a bit and in 2023 he delivered a performance that would remind many of 2024 Adrian Houser as a starting pitcher.
Sometimes the folks in the front office get lucky or know a bit more than the rest of us do. With Severino’s magnificent start on Wednesday afternoon he raised his season record to 4-2 and lowered his ERA to just 3.25. How good are those numbers? Well, for his career he was a 3.76 ERA pitcher going into the 2024 season, but the scariest part is that from 2019 onward he has appeared in 3, 0, 4, 19 and 19 starts. He did not have the profile of a solid and dependable member ready to take the ball every 5th day. In fact, he hasn’t done that since 2018. That’s five full seasons of partial effort due to injury.
There have been changes to the type of pitcher Severino has become for the Mets. Gone is the killer strikeout pursuit which showed him notching significantly more than 1K per IP during those two full seasons. For the Mets he has delivered his quality pitching to the tune of a 1.14 ERA but the strikeouts are down to 58 over 72+ innings pitched. It seems Jeremy Hefner has convinced the 30 year old that pitching to contact is fine just as strikeouts are fine. You really can’t argue with the results.
So there you have it. Tip your cap to Luis Severino for not only reinventing himself but also for having made 12 starts since the season began, well on his way to a 32-34 start campaign. Also tip your cap to pitching coach Jeremy Hefner and a third time towards POBO David Stearns for having negotiated the deal.
Now we return to the will they or won’t they debate that is like trying to get the most extreme and emotional debate for Mets fans. Do you declare the decision to ink Severino for a single year, ending his association as a one and done contract? Do you show complete faith and extend him while you have exclusive negotiating rights realizing that his health, his over-30 age, his conditioning and the price it’s going to cost all form a pretty large group of concerns? Or do you sell high in late July to a contender in need of a starting pitcher, wish him well for what he has done for the Mets and try to get the best return possible for him instead of seeing him simply walk away at year’s end?
Take the Atlanta Braves as an example of a team facing its own injury issues. They obviously want to recoup their annual position as the winner of the National League East. They also seem to do a better job developing younger players than do the Mets. As much stomach contortion it would take to help the Braves, no matter how nice it was to sweep the Nationals the fact is the Mets are at best a wildcard hopeful. Banking on a long shot entry to the postseason when the club has yet to show it’s even capable of playing close to .500 ball is the very definition of wishful thinking.
The compromise position to trading the man away is a longer term deal of say 3-4 years but with opt outs included both ways. They would protect the player if he is indeed healthy and continues to perform at a premium level. They protect the Mets as they have a way to minimize the financial damage if the previous five year profile of Luis Severino makes an ominous return.
What should not be done is simply playing out the string and letting him walk away. If you want to see some sheer guts by the front office, you could do that and offer up a QO for nearly $20 million for 2025. Then if he takes it, you have another one and done situation. If he turns it down then at least you get a draft pick.
So, with apologies to The Clash, “Should he stay or should he go?”
15 comments:
The Clash of course were from London. Will the Mets Slash, Crash, or Stash? Time will tell.
Anybody know why Baty sat for both games of the double header last night? I think he sat the day before also
They took Baty to London, just in case, along with a few others.
Oh, ok, thanks Tom. Good for Baty
Reese, speaking of trades, my brother often tells me that Mets’ rising prospects often ought to be traded away early, while performing well and before they are exposed in higher levels.
Two that currently come to mind are 24 y/o Vasil and 25 y/o Hamel. The two have thrown 90 innings in AAA combined so far this year, while facing 110 innings worth of hitters. Their combined ERA? 7.37. Their combined WHIP? Around 1.75.
Another, more highly thought of prospect from 2022, Alex Ramirez, TOP 100 in 2022, was hitting .361 on April 24. He is now down to .240 in 46 games in AA with 2 HRs. That is a drop of 20 points per week for 6 weeks. Could he turn it around? Perhaps. But they could have traded high after 2022 if they knew what they had. Now, they wouldn’t get nearly as much for him.
My brother felt the Baez for Crow trade was a good one, except the Mets needed more deadline deals that year to make the playoffs and stopped with Baez. Crow might turn out to be very good. But Heis a .186 major leaguer in 86 career at bats so far.
As for the pitcher in question, in my plan, he would be a major trade chip this season
Will get back at least one Top 100 prospect
Maybe more
Currently no market for Vasil and Hamel
I guess I'm the voice of dissent here, but I see Sevy as a piece to build around, not trade away. He's shown the ability to not only be successful in NY, but to be an All-Star.
He's finally healthy, still only 30 or 31, has morphed (like our former #41, though at a lower lever) into a more complete pitcher, rather just a flame-thrower.
If he keeps performing like this by the end of July, without injury in that span, I'd rather extend him for 2-3 years then let someone else get the benefits.
Bill
I have to stick to my plan to get this team under the penalty level next season
An opening day rotation of Senga Tidwell Scott. Megill and Peterson works for me with Butto sitting by the phone in Syracuse
Severino has been a pleasant upside in a year of many downsides. He has done more than most in consuming innings and his ERA (3.25) and WHIP (1.14) are just what the team needs from their starters. It would be hard to give him up, but we are facing into a rebuild so with the right deal I would trade him.
Should we turn into Marlins North? Sevy makes $13 mil this year. Even with a raise, he's not a budget-buster, especially with Soto looming.
If you want to bring the guys you mentioned, then trade Manaea and Q in July and audition the others.
But I wouldn't give up a healthy Sevy, who just might be our only All-Star this year.
I still refuse to give up on this season. We're not out of the running, and now that Megill and Peterson are back, with Senga hopefully following, and Pete and Lindor hitting and Vientos looking great, we're not the team that sank in the deep hole.
I'm not predicting what will happen, but neither am I throwing in the towel.
YGB, amigos!
Mack, I think McLean and Sproat are also gonna be banging hard on the door next spring training. So, if we drop out of the WC, sell Sevy and Manaea.
Mets are 3 games out of a wild card spot, with 100 games to play. Maybe they can sell off some big players and STILL make the WC. They do have Diaz and Alvarez returning.
The blow them up crowd wants 2 London losses. The WC crew wants 2 wins. I hope the Mets either go 8-2 or 2-8 in the next 10, to help clarify.
McLean 's pitching is slowly becoming an issue
Originally projected as a RP/DH
I love that he walked none and fanned 8 in 5 innings. Fearless.
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