Tom Brennan: Minors Ks Galore; Oca is Back; Scott & Vasil Side-by-Side; Wee Wiilie

This just in…Mets won last night. The Wild Card drive has begun!

All but McNeil (0-4, 2 Ks) had at least one hit, in a 10-4 shellacking.

The 4 Mets minors teams last night were outscored 29-13, no wins.

Now, on to my article…

MAYBE IT'S JUST THE BIGGER FANS???

On Friday night, May 31, Brooklyn, batters fanned 19 times against 3 pitchers. I don't think Nolan Ryan was on the mound.

19 Ks in a game by one team used to be rare.  But I believe, without looking back, that the Mets hitters and/or pitchers, have fanned 18 or 19 times in a game in the minors this year a few other times, too.

What is the big picture here? How high, exactly, are minors Ks these days?

Thru Friday, May 31, let's look:

AAA:

Syracuse:

Pitchers: 456 Ks in 456 IP (and, oddly, a 4.56 ERA)

Hitters: 457 Ks in 54 games, a high number considering a few 7 inning games.

 - Norfolk arms have fanned 575 in 488 IP, one of 7 teams with 500 or more.

AA:

Binghamton: 

Pitchers: 416 Ks in 403 IP (3.97)

Hitters: 429 Ks in 47 games, a high number considering the number of 7 inning games they have played.  They were 5th best of all 12 teams in terms of suppressing hitter Ks.

 - Bowie pitchers has fanned 490 in 420 IP, and on only one team have the pitchers fanned fewer than 1 per IP. 

HIGH A (SAL):

Brooklyn:

Pitchers: 485 Ks in 423 IP (3.66), a high K rate - but only 6th highest.

Hitters: 523 Ks in 49 games, third worst.

 - Aberdeen hurlers have fanned 506 in 425 IP. Every team but one is averaging at least 10 pitcher Ks per 9 IP.

(But the Brooklyn bats erupted on June 6 and 7th for 26 runs and 34 hits, which has to be a promising sign. You can’t strike out when you get a hit)

FULL A (FSL):

St. Lucie:

Pitchers: 534 Ks in 428 IP (11.22/9 IP) is #1, but the team ERA is still 4.65.

Hitters: 494 Ks in 49 games, but due to short games, the K rate per official at bat is roughly 3.3 ABs per K.

- the lowest K team in the league is averaging nearly 10 Ks per 9 IP.

ROOKIE (FCL):

FCL Mets:

Pitchers: 201 Ks in 154 IP (11.75/9 IP). Tied for the highest rate so far, but the ERA is still 4.79.

Hitters: 159 Ks in 626 ABs is not all that low, but is one of the league's best.  

 - The Cardinal's hitters have fanned a staggering 257 times in 677 ABs. 

As is evident, strikeouts in the minors are extremely high.  

The cool thing is MILB.com has stats for 20 seasons.  In 2005, St Lucie pitchers fanned 901 in 1,167 IP, a rate of just 6.9 per 9 IP.  No team in that league in 2005 fanned anywhere near a batter per inning.

At the lower levels in 2024, it might well have to do with the fact that there used to be 4 full season teams and 3 rookie teams, and now that is 4 and just one rook squad, two teams fewer, so teams opt towards the hardest throwers to pitch.

It likely has much to do with the all-out nature of pitchers - less finesse, more rear back and fire, because if your K rate is low as you come along, you're suspect, i.e., if you can't have an eye-popping K rate in the minors, what will you do against power-laden MLB hitters, who love to chew on mince meat?

I of course mostly did not look at walks, which I suspect are also up markedly in the minors these days as accuracy gives way to sheer velocity.

FCL teams are typically averaging 5+ walks per 9.  And FSL teams?  

St Lucie has walked a staggering 250 in those 428 IP. Born to Be Wild.  

It also means three things:

1) When a guy like Rhylan Thomas fans just 50 times in 556 pro PAs, that is super-impressive in these high K times.

2) Cut hitters some slack if they are over a K per game - it may take longer to adapt to facing nothing but fireballers.

3) Take high pitcher K rates with a grain of salt, especially at lower levels. It may be misleading.

Mets top 10 prospect Ryan Clifford is a case in point.  He was promoted from Brooklyn to Binghamton in early May, while hitting .216 with a .412 OBP.  He walks a lot, no doubt as a deliberate plan, but strikes out even more.

In his last 2 Brooklyn games pre-promotion, he was 0 for 9 with 4 Ks.  

In his first 11 Binghamton games, he was 4 for 38 with 19 Ks.  

Worried?  Heck, no.  Why worry about a 4 for 47 stretch with 23 Ks?

In his last 11 games, you see, he is 8 for 33 with 4 HRs, and 11 walks vs. 12 Ks.  Much better - on base a ton in that recent 11 game stretch.  

I surmise he has a plan to truly learn that strike zone and work deep counts to work walks, and he has walked 49 times in 53 games - but also fanned 71 times in the process. 

My off-the-cuff advice, from my kitchen table on Tuesday AM, is to be more aggressive early in counts to minimize Ks and tap into that considerable power more. Less walks (you'll still walk a lot, no doubt, it is in your DNA), but more hits, less Ks.  Essentially the Mark Vientos approach.  Your average and power numbers will look better in no time, especially now that you are out of left handed hitters' hell in Brooklyn.

WHAT ABOUT STRIKEOUT RATES IN THE BIG LEAGUES IN 1932?

The Chicago White Sox fanned just 384 times in 152 games, roughly 2 1/2 times per game, about 1/4 of today's rate.  

And that year, as I’ve noted before, Hall of Famer Joe Sewell was up 576 times, walked 56 times and fanned just 3 times. Sick.  

I'd be surprised if you could find any major leaguer today who could face a High School All Star squad of pitchers and not fan more than that in 576 ABs. None on the Mets, that’s for sure.

These days, in the entire baseball minors, by comparison, on any given full schedule day, you are guaranteed to have at least 100 batters fan 3 or more times in a single game.  

TIME TO POP THE CHAMPAGNE CORK! 

BMDO HAS RESURFACED

Mack reported the other day that Bryce Montes de Oca was throwing 96-98 in BP recently.

Well, BMDO took the next step and started his official return from his 2nd Tommy John surgery on Tuesday night.  

His surgery was in late March 2023, so this resumption is fairly rapid.

Pitching for St Lucie, he threw 17 pitches, 10 for strikes.  He only recorded one out (naturally, by strikeout), with 3 baserunners, a walk, an infield hit, and a ground double to left field.  

But this isn't about stats right now.  It is about, in my mind, can he get back to throwing a nasty 101, and might his repaired arm lead to improved control.  

We all know he can fan the world, as he fanned 86 in 54 innings in his last season in 2022.

Hopefully all goes well and we see him as a reborn fireballer in Citi Field in July, as a NY Met.  After all, the sell-off is coming and the Mets will soon need replacements.

DEDNIEL ON FIRE!

Dedniel Nunez, who started out in 2017, but only got to the bigs this year, retired all seven batters he faced, including 5 by K. Nasty slider, nasty fastball. Started out in AAA this year, and he has been brilliant all season.

SCOTT AND VASIL YESTERDAY:

Christian Scott, 3.2 IP, 1 run, 6 Ks, 2.91 ERA

Mike Vasil, 3.2 IP, 4 H, 3 BB, 4 runs, 7.08 ERA

GREAT SCOTT!

SUCCESSFUL SHORT GUY

The Mets have their share of short guys. Saw this in a Facebook post:

“Wee Willie Keeler! Standing only 5’4” and weighing 140lbs, Keeler often used a 46 ounce bat masterfully. Notoriously difficult to strike out, Keeler set the record for AB to strikeouts, going nearly 60 AB before striking out. 

“He set precedents for hitting, and many of his records took years to break, including his 44 game hit streak in 1897 (broke by Joe DiMaggio 44 years later) and his streak of 8 consecutive seasons with 200+ hits in 1894 (broken by Ichiro over 100 years later)! 

“His motto of “hit ‘em where they ain’t” worked well for his Hall of Fame career as he batted a lifetime .341 with 495 steals, and his 2,932 hits were second all time at the time of his retirement in 1910!”