Paul Articulates - Adjust or bust

The New York Mets offense is finally hitting its stride.  All year fans have looked at this lineup and developed great expectations for a team that could score runs in bunches.  But for most of the year, inexplicable multi-player slumps and some really untimely at-bats with runners in scoring position drove up the market for antacids in the greater New York area.

Suddenly, in series against NL East rivals Atlanta, Philadelphia, and Miami, that lineup has begun to hit in most of the games.  They have hit often, they have hit in the clutch, and they have hit throughout the lineup.

This would normally be great news and be associated with a triumphant article on how the Mets have gone on a huge winning streak, out-distancing their opponents in both the East and the wild card race.

It is not.  The Mets have seen lapses in both pitching and defense that have cost them winnable games in this race, and if they cannot right this ship going into September things will not end well.

How dire is the situation?  The two pitchers at the top of the rotation that would not only be expected to anchor a playoff race but also be the ones to pitch in a best-of-three series are both failing miserably.  Both Kodai Senga and Sean Manaea have not thrown a quality start since they have returned to the rotation from injury.  Here is a breakdown of what they have done since mid-July:

Manaea: 9 starts since July 13th, 41.1 innings pitched, 23 earned runs, 5.01 ERA

Senga: 8 starts since July 11th, 35 innings pitched, 21 earned runs, 22 walks, 5.40 ERA

David Peterson and Clay Holmes have fared better, but they are your middle of the rotation guys, not the top two that are needed to get critical wins, stop losing streaks, and lock up playoff series.  

Newcomers Nolan McLean and Jonah Tong have given the Mets a spark with impressive starts, but realistically, neither rookie is going to get the call to start a playoff game.  The post-season fate of the Mets (both getting there and winning there) depends upon getting that top two right.

I used those words carefully – “getting them right”.  As exasperating as it is to watch game after game without a dominant start or even a deep quality start that saves the pen, it is not time to wish they were wearing another uniform.  We must remember that it was only a year ago that Sean Manaea was looking like he could become the ace of the staff.  Just about everyone said it was a high David Stearns priority to get him re-signed with the Mets.  And while we are on the topic of short memories, it was only three months ago that Kodai Senga was leading MLB in ERA and looking like the ace that was predicted in the off-season.

I don’t have access to the deep analytics or sensor data that the Mets do, so it would be foolish to speculate on what is happening with Senga’s pitches, but even the casual observer would be able to point to a greater amount of walks, a greater amount of hard hit fastballs, and a lower whiff rate during his appearances.  Usually this is something that the pitching coaches are on top of and adjustments are made in bullpen sessions between games.  The part that is harder to fix is confidence.  If a pitcher doesn’t have confidence in his ability to throw a pitch by the batter, it shows in both pitch selection and pitch location.  My guess is that the physical adjustments have  been made but the confidence hasn’t caught up.

With Sean Manaea, the problem may be even more elusive.  He is not having as much trouble locating pitches, as evidenced by his 53/8 K/BB ratio which is even better than last year and twice his career average.  But he is giving up many more hits and runs per inning since his return and that is a big factor in his ability to pitch deep into games.  

I am sure these issues are keeping Jeremy Hefner up at night, and I am hopeful for a solution soon.  September starts today and the Mets are in for a very tough road trip that could make or break their season.