The Morning Report 7.8.2015 | Niese's Trade Value Re-evaluated, d'Arnaud Not Making Progress, Trade Rumors Heating Up, Soto's Trade Targets Part 1


Andy Martino | NY Daily News- Trade Niese? He has no value!” The arguments against Niese were plentiful. Variations in his arm angle led scouts to conclude that he has shoulder problems. Even the team-friendly contract, which Mets people continue to insist carries value, led one rival executive to huff, “It’s not a good contract if he’s on the DL.” In checking back with several of the evaluators, it was clear that even six consecutive quality starts was not enough to significantly impact value. Folks were impressed that Niese had pitched well against quality teams like the Blue Jays, Cubs and Giants, but noted that good general managers are rarely swayed by a hot streak.

(Chris Soto: The argument against Niese's trade value has never been his performance...it's always been that questionable shoulder of his. However, Niese continues to be insistent that his shoulder is in the best condition in years. Quite frankly Niese has been pretty solid all year long. Before he hit his wrong 4 game stretch in late May, Niese was carrying a 1.95 ERA. After pushing through the rough patch, he's posted a 2.41 ERA through these last 6 games. He's a good pitcher folks.) 

Adam Rubin | ESPN New York- New York Mets catcher Travis d’Arnaud continues to wear a brace for a left elbow sprain and is not particularly close to being able to shed it and begin baseball activity, manager Terry Collins said Tuesday. D’Arnaud suffered the injury applying a tag at the plate on A.J. Pierzynski in Atlanta on June 20. Initially, he was forecast to miss only the minimum 15 days on the disabled list.

(Chris Soto: These continued "opponent inflicted" injuries are just maddening for Travis d'Arnaud. He's a healthy individual and he has no nagging body injuries that result in needing time. All these injuries he keeps sustaining are crazy unlucky instances. The worst part is that when he's healthy, he's the Mets best hitter and the club needs him back so badly right now. Look for d'Arnaud to make a possible return after the All-Star break.) 

Kevin Kiernan | New York Post- The wait for Mets fans has been excruciating. Yes, they are going to have to be patient a little longer before the Mets even get in the market for a deal, mostly because the market is still in flux. Forget about any of the Mets big four/core of young starting pitchers being traded for anyone. Wisely, that is not happening. The Mets want to upgrade up the middle, because Ruben Tejada is best as a backup. Nothing will begin to take shape until after the All-Star Game, according to a survey of general managers and assistant GMs on Tuesday.

(Chris Soto: It's so easy to get upset with Alderson over the lack of inactivity so far this season to help bring in some offensive help for the team...but just look around the league. No one is making trades! The only significant bat that has been traded so far has been Mark Trumbo, and he makes Lucas Duda look like a Gold Glover in the OF. That said, the rumor mills have been heating up over the past few days and talks should begin to get heavy over the next few as GM start determining whether or not their clubs have legitimate shots at competing in 2015.)

Chris Soto | Trade Targets

Let's start taking a look at realistic trade targets that Sandy could possibly put together. We'll start in reverse standings order and climb the ladder a few teams at a time.

Philadelphia Phillies (29-57): Re-build Mode

  • The Philadelphia Phillies are clearly the worst team in baseball and many evaluators have them pegged as the worst run club in the MLB right now. In regards to them being trade partners, Phillies honestly don't have many assets to sell that can help improve their club in the long-term. If your talking to the Phillies, your talking either Cole Hamels or Jonathan Papelbon. Neither of which is a need or a desire for the Mets right now.

Miami Marlins (35-49): Should be in Re-Tool Mode....but ya never know with Loria

  • The National League's most disappointing team is in an absolute freefall. Young OF'ers Marcell Ozuna and Christian Yelich have succumbed to sabermetrically predicted regressions, Giancarlo Stanton is on the DL with a wrist fracture, and the rotation was horrid all year until Latos and Fernandez returned recently. They now find themselves 11+ games out of playoff contention and wondering what their irrational owner Jeffrey Loria may do. The club's most attractive trade pieces are the recently resurgent Latos and the utility IF Martin Prado. However, Latos has been battling injuries the past 2 years and Prado is currently on the DL. Prado could be of particular interest to the Mets since he is under team control through 2016. However, he may not represent a significant enough upgrade offensively. The acquisition cost should not be that much.
    • Trade Proposal: Mets send OF/1B Travis Taijeron for IF Martin Prado
    • Reason: The Marlins have a solid core of players and could attempt to compete again next season. One area of concern for them is the hole left behind by Marcell Ozuna's terrible play. Taijeron could provide them a solid bat there or slide into 1B where the Marlins have no significant prospects in sight.

Milwaukee Brewers (36-50): Clear Sellers...Possibly Fire-Sell/Rebuild Mode

  • Much like the Marlins, the Brew Crew has a solid core of guys that they could just re-tool around if they want to make a run in 2016. Only problem is, the Pirates, Cubs, and Cardinals are all younger and MORE talented then them now, and in the future, making it tough for them to compete in the NL Central or even the Wild Card for the next few years. It makes a ton of sense for them to burn the house down and starting building up for 2017 and beyond. Only Ryan Braun is on the payroll past 2016, so everyone is a possible trade target. The most interesting names are Carlos Gomez, Gerardo Parra, and Aramis Ramirez. If the Mets want to go the safe route low cost route, you can go out and grab either Parra or Ramirez. However, if you want a high impact bat that can pole vault you into playoff contention, you have to try and get Gomez.
    • Trade Proposal: Mets send RHP Zack Wheeler, SS Milton Ramos, and OF Champ Stuart for CF Carlos Gomez
    • Reason: The Brewers have no pitching prospects in sight and if they are gonna burn the house down, they are gonna be building for 2017, not 2016. The Mets are unwilling to part with the Big 4 but 1 name that still carries value is Zack Wheeler. With a pre-TJS K rate over 9 per 9 IP, he's better than anything the Brewers have right NOW. He's under team control thru 2019 and has front line capable stuff that the Brewers can build around. Ramos is a strong SS prospect that they can move to 3B if Segura sticks around, or keep at SS as Segura's eventual replacement, and Stuart is a super speedster that could provide the Brewers with a future 40 SB lead-off hitter with excellent defense in CF.


Mack Ade said...

Morning, Chris.

I know it seems like d'Arnaud always has the bad luck of the draw, but he is a professional athlete that is supposed to be in top shape.

Doesn't it always seem like the healing process is slower than rolling out the Challenger command module used to travel to the launch pad?

Thomas Brennan said...

Hey, Chris - interesting trade thoughts. For Prado, Travis Taijeron's early .370 surge has passed, and he is a still-strikeout-prone hitter sitting all the way down at .281, so I don't think he is a useful trade chip at this point. Maybe throw in a Luis Guillorme type or Jeff McNeil to make that trade more palatable, or one of the pitchers like Gsellman or Whelan.

I like the Wheeler for Gomez deal, but Champ Stuart is around .200 in St Lucie and a strikeout rate that is very high. If a guy with his blazing speed can't hit better, he would be a huge gamble as to his ever reaching the majors. Might take a Wuilmer Becerra instead. Maybe a pen guy like Leathersich, assuming his stay on the DL in Vegas is a minor injury and not something dreaded.

Thomas Brennan said...

Hey Mack, I posted a few days ago that in January, I hurt a ligament in my hand in a slip and fall. Mostly better now, but took a really long time to improve. It would not have been good for baseball a month after it happened. Let's hope d'Arnaud heals much faster.

Reese Kaplan said...

Gomez would be an interesting addition which would also allow them to DL Juan Lagares. Milwaukee's CarGo is having an awful year by his own standards over the past three years with power and speed both being down. Curiously his strikeouts are also down which suggests he's lost some aggression in the batter's box. Still at $8 million for this year and $9 million for next and at just 29 years of age he's definitely worth considering. However, I think you're missing the big picture from Suds City -- the Hebrew Hammer, Ryan Braun. Whether or not they have truly forgiven him for the steroid thing isn't the issue. He's the cleanup hitter the Mets need, he's going to be easy to market in NYC and the $20 million per year he's owed would balance out the money the insurance company is obligated to pay David Wright.

Anonymous said...

Gomez is a bold idea, but your trade proposal is a non-starter. Teams can't trade a player on the DL, and besides that, teams will want to see some recovery from Wheeler -- who won't be pitching until a year from now -- before dealing for him. The other two guys you mention are worthless, low-level guys the quality of which are already in everybody's organization.

bob gregory said...

Don't forget Justin Upton.

Mack Ade said...

Tom -

I must have missed your ligament post. Thanks for the info.

bob gregory said...

Another interesting target would be George Springer from Houston. It would have to be possibly off season though because of his fractured wrist.

Kevin S said...

Springer isn't going anywhere. Houston is building something down there. Correa & Springer will anchor that team for years. Preston Tucker & Domingo Santana are more realistic targets but they are young (24 & 22) so you'd have to give up something significant for them.

bob gregory said...

You mean a team understands the value in building a young offensive core?
But the great and all knowing Wizard of Citibank didn't include such a thing in his "plan" for Mets success?

Kevin S said...


The Mets have clearly been successful at developing pitchers under this regime. But Harvey, deGrom & Matz were drafted under Minaya. Sandy acquired Thor & Wheeler. The only bats acquired by Sandy have been d'Arnaud and Herrera and those have yet to payoff for the club. All Sandy has done since coming over is draft first round bats and then upside arms.

He's trying to develop bats but their ETA is behind the pitchers that are succeeding now. We used to have a pitching heavy farm system. Now arguably 6 of our top 7 prospects are bats and half of them can't even drink yet.

Houston has developed a nice core of position players and has some pitchers on the horizon. Same with the Cubs. Same with the Mets but just opposite with bats on the horizon. All three of these teams can contend now if they deal some of their future prizes for immediate help.

ZachBoyer said...

Actually 2 are already contending now. And one kind of is. Depends on your definition, I suppose. But might hurt your negotiating leverage with them? Idk.

Michael S. said...

Bravo, Reese. You, me, same page. The Mets need a bopper, not a Lagares upgrade. If Wheeler's dealt it needs to be for a legitimate middle order bat.

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