Top Ten Mets Pitching Prospects - Stephen Guilbert

In a rankings list I would like to return to a few times throughout the season, I will keep track of the top ten pitchers in the Mets system as I see them.

1.)    RHP Zach Wheeler. Wheeler gets the nod over Harvey due to his pedigree and a hot start at AA. While Harvey has started to master AAA and Wheeler is still a level lower, I am going with the higher upside here and the guy with the 1.75 ERA. Both need to lower their walk rate before getting a shot at Flushing, however, and that is something to keep an eye on. Season stats: 1-2, 1.75 ERA, 25.2 IP, 17 hits, 14 walks, 30 strikeouts, 1.5 GO/AO ratio.

2.)    RHP Matt Harvey. Harvey had a rough start to AAA but has allowed only 5 ER in his last 23 IP. Like Wheeler, walks continue to be an issue for Harvey, issuing 16 in 36 innings so far but the last four starts are an encouraging sign for Harvey and the Mets. Season stats: 3-1, 4.00 ERA, 36 IP, 36 hits, 16 walks, 32 strikeouts, 1.15 GO/AO ratio.

3.)    RHP Jeurys Familia. While Wheeler has started well and Harvey has come around after a rocky first few weeks, Familia is still trying to piece it together at AAA. The 5.06 ERA comes from a staggering 51 base runners allowed in only 26.2 innings which includes 25 walks. If Familia wants any shot to stay in the rotation, he will have to find the strike zone. The gap between Gorski and Familia is not as big as you would think. Season Stats: 2-1, 5.06 ERA, 26.2 IP, 26 hits, 25 walks, 29 strikeouts, 0.79 GO/AO ratio.

4.)    LHP Darin Gorski. Most would take Michael Fulmer, Cory Mazzoni, or promising righties like Domingo Tapia or Akeel Morris at this spot. We will get to all of them later but at the fourth spot I will take the Sterling Organization winner from last year, 6’4” lefty Darin Gorski. Why? After dominating single-A, he has found continued success after the tough jump to AA by striking hitters out and allowing practically nothing via hit. In 31.2 innings, he has allowed 21 (!) hits for a .186 average against. The walk rate is up but Darin has had a fantastic start to his 2012 campaign. Oh…he has not yet allowed a home run either. Season stats: 2-1, 2.27 ERA, 31.2 IP, 21 hits, 16 walks, 27 strikeouts, 0.59 GO/AO ratio (he is a flyball pitcher but this ratio still seems extreme to me).

5.)    RHP Michael Fulmer. The supplemental pick from 2011 has looked good for Savannah this year. The righty with a good fastball and impressive high school resume has struck out 20 batters in 22.2 IP thus far this year and has walked only six. While the three homers are a bit more than you would want to see at this level, it is a microscopic sample. I am just happy this 19-year-old is at low-A and performing well thus far. Season stats: 1-2, 3.18 ERA, 22.2 IP, 20 hits, 6 walks, 20 strikeouts, 0.85 GO/AO ratio.

6.)    RHP Domingo Tapia. Take out one nightmarish start from Domingo and he has dominated low-A ball this year. Featuring a blazing fastball and developing breaking pitches, the 20-year-old has put up an unfathomable 4.3 GO/AO ratio thus far this year. Read that again. He has had over four ground ball outs for every out recorded in the air. Take out the one bad start in West Virginia where he surrendered 8 runs, Tapia has allowed only 6 earned runs in the other 25 innings he has pitched. 23 strikeouts against 4 walks. Good fastball. Ground ball pitcher. Strikes hitters out. Does not walk many. If you were looking for a pitching prospect to get excited about, you just found him. Season stats: 2-1, 4.78 ERA, 26.1 IP, 26 hits, 4 walks, 23 strikeouts, 4.3 GO/AO ratio.

7.)    RHP Akeel Morris. There is so much to like about Akeel. He is young (does not turn 20 until November), throws hard, strikes hitters out, and oozes with potential. Currently at extended spring training, this St. Thomas native recorded 61 punch outs in 51.1 IP last year for Kingsport to the tune of a respectable 3.86 ERA. The concern with Akeel comes with his control. He walked 38 in those 51.1 innings. The potential is there, though, and while it might be a few years yet before he is ready for the bigs, he is certainly one to watch. Season stats: At extended spring training.

8.)    Colin McHugh. I know McHugh is not a pitcher who throws particularly hard or is nearly as flashy as other top prospects but he does enough right to get batters out and does it consistently. Isn’t that the idea after all? After striking out 139 batters in 129 innings last year splitting time between single and double-A, McHugh has picked up right where he left off. .198 batting average against speaks as much to his success as anything else. I know he is only in AA at the moment but if no one steps up and pitches well enough to hold the fifth starter’s spot in Flushing, why shouldn’t this guy get a shot at it? Season stats: 4-2, 2.62 ERA, 34.1 IP, 26 hits, 12 walks, 31 strikeouts, 1.11 GO/AO ratio. 

9.)    RHP Cory Mazzoni. 3-0 with a 3.00 ERA is a nice way to start the year at high-A. I keep reading good things about his makeup and potential but I want to see this 22-year-old start dominating the low levels. 18 strikeouts in 30 IP at Port St. Lucie while surrendering 32 hits is not going to do it for me. It is early but Cory needs to move up quickly given his age and pedigree. Season stats: 3-0, 3.00 ERA, 32 hits, 8 walks, 18 strikeouts, 0.82 GO/AO ratio.

10.)      RHP Erik Goeddel. Regular readers of this blog know how high I am on this promising righty. Swayed from returning to UCLA, Goeddel accepted the Mets over-slot offer and turned pro in 2010 but has not had an easy go of it due to injuries. Back just a couple weeks ago and pitching for St. Lucie, Goeddel has started to show the skill set that made him such an attractive over-slot pick in the 2010 draft. Yes, he is a 23-year-old playing at St. Lucie but the fact that a pitcher of his caliber is playing and playing healthy is a shot in the arm for the system. This kid could still be a SP2 if he stays healthy. Season stats: 1-1, 2.12 ERA, 17 IP, 13 hits, 9 walks, 13 strikeouts, 0.64 GO/AO ratio. 

Notes: I did not quite realize how much pitching talent this system has. Alex Panteliodis, Tyler Pill, Jeremy Hefner, Chase Huchingson, Chris Schwinden, Gonzalez German, Rafael Montero, Josh Edgin, Juan Urbina, Jack Leathersich, Logan Verrett and even Adrian Rosario could have (and maybe should have, in some instances) made this list. Looking back on it, perhaps Edgin should be in there. Maybe he and others will in future renditions of this list. There is quite a bit of right-handed talent in this system and while you can never have too much pitching, the future is bright for this system’s arms. Please comment if you feel I left anyone out, had someone too high, low, or made any myopic evaluations of these players.  

One final note: Yes, RHP Jenrry Mejia is missing from this list. I just cannot make a call on him until I see him pitch this season and see where he is at, what his role will be, and how he responds to any residual effects of rust from the arm surgery. I have been vocal about how important it is to give him every chance to start and if he does so and with success, I would put him behind just Harvey and Wheeler at this point.

LGM

Stephen