10/5/20

Mike's Mets - Where Did We Go Wrong?

 

 

In The Athletic this week, Tim Britton had a very good look into what went wrong with the Mets this season. The obvious starting point was the rotation, which was pretty much a bad bet on the days deGrom wasn't pitching. David Peterson was fairly impressive in a 9-start audition for 2021. Seth Lugo was more miss than hit in 7 starts, winding up with an ERA over 6 as a starter. Everyone else was just plain awful. Neither Rick Porcello or Michael Wacha proved to be any help. Steven Matz has gone from looking like a really solid pitcher just a few years ago to a non-tender candidate this offseason. The promise that Robert Gsellman seemed to offer as a 22-year-old in 2016 has evaporated. As Britton pointed out, the 2020 Mets had the worst starting rotation ERA in the history of the team. That's quite an accomplishment for Brodie Van Wagenen to put on his resume.

Surviving their poor starting pitching might have been possible if the bullpen was great, but that certainly wasn't the case. Edwin Diaz survived some hiccups and really reestablished himself as a late inning reliever. The guys behind him, primarily Jeurys FamiliaJustin WilsonJared HughesChasen Shreve, Brad Brach and trade pickup Miguel Castro, weren't as bad as the starters, but hardly set the world on fire. Even Lugo had some rough outings when he was still in the bullpen.

Everything I've written in those last two paragraphs makes me question whether Pitching Coach Jeremy Hefner has earned a return gig for next year. I can't blame him for the quality of the pitchers he had to work with, that blame falls squarely on the shoulders of Brodie Van Wagenen. I could even give Hefner credit for shepherding Peterson through a successful rookie campaign. Other than that, as I pointed out a couple of weeks ago, it's hard to make a case for not getting a new Pitching Coach next season. Hefner had limited previous experience coming in, having spent 2 years as an advanced scout and 1 year as assistant pitching coach with the Twins before coming here. I think getting a different, presumably more experienced voice next season would be warranted.

A lot has been made about the team's struggles plating runners this season, but that's a stat that would have likely evened out over the length of a real season. What would never even out was the poor baserunning and defense that has been a hallmark of this team from recent campaigns. You can get by with a weak defender in LF, many teams do that, so I have no problem with Dominic Smith or J.D. Davis playing there. A bigger problem is weak up the middle defense. While Amed Rosario was decent at shortstop and Andrés Giménez was a plus defender at the position, all 3 other up the middle spots were below par.

The Mets are likely to move on from Wilson Ramos at catcher. His OPS+ of 88 is indefensible for a player who offers no value at all defensively. It's obvious that the Mets will be players in the J.T. Realmuto sweepstakes this off-season, but their fallback position is much less clear. It's a real shame that Tomás Nido lost so much of the season to COVID, because some offseason work he had done with a hitting instructor was showing real promise. You need a backup catcher, too, and Nido could well be that guy next season.

Robinson Cano had a huge bounce back this season with the bat. He's under contract for three more years, so thank God for that. I still believe that whoever is making the personnel decisions this offseason, whether it's Alderson or someone he chooses, should at least try to move Cano even if the return is only so-so. Some team that is in a real win now mode and needs production at 2B might take a flyer. Sure, it would make the Kelenic trade look even worse if they moved Cano for a small return, but the team would be better with a real defender at second base, and the offense can be replaced with other signings. Barring that happening, however, Cano is going to wind up playing a lot of second base next year, and the defense will suffer.

Which leaves CF as the final up the middle defensive spot that really needs an upgrade. I love Nimmo, but his best value going forward would be as a trade chip or LF. His defense in CF was simply unacceptable, particularly when the Met were playing a bad defender in LF, too. As much as the pitching staff struggled this season, some of the blame has to be on the poor defense behind them. That's got to change, and their CF should be a solid defender next season.

I know George Springer's name gets thrown around a lot as a potential signing, but from what I read about the guy he is likely headed to a corner OF spot in the near future. Jackie Bradley Jr. fits the bill as a true defensive CF. His negatives are that he'd be another left-handed hitter in a lineup that is already unbalanced in that direction, he's not been very durable - only playing in 133, 144 and 147 games over his last 3 full seasons, and he's a below-average hitter  with a career OPS+ of 94. Bottom line is that neither Springer or Bradley is a perfect fit.

As for baserunning, that just frustrates me as a fan. You don't have to be a speedster to run the bases properly. It takes knowledge, baseball smarts and concentration. Keith Hernandez was an excellent baserunner back in his day, even though he wasn't an exceptionally fast runner. Any player coming up through the Mets system should be schooled relentlessly in this skill. It shouldn't be an option, but rather demanded of anyone in the system. There are talents that you just have to be born with to play Major League Baseball, but baserunning is a skill that can be learned. This has to get better.

Britton did an excellent job in summarizing the Mets brutal 2020 season on the bases:
The Mets were also a brutal baserunning team this season, constantly running into outs while rarely earning the reward of that aggressiveness. They were just 20 for 30 in stolen bases, a low frequency combining with a low success rate, and that doesn’t even count the five times they were picked off.... Even removing steals from the equation, the Mets made 22 outs on the bases - fifth most in baseball. Rojas became a broken record talking about plays that "can't happen" and the way the team has to "clean it up."

A lot of teams live with outs on the bases because of the message it sends to the opponent, and because such aggressiveness often leads to tangible results down the line. This was not the case with the Mets, who ranked last in the majors in taking the extra base - in advancing two bases on a single and three on a double.
I think one thing that the awful baserunning this season might signal is a lack of attention to detail. If Rojas stays on as manager he has to do more than just complain about the problem, he should start 2021 with a real plan to address it. I know that he can't wave a magic wand and turn the Mets into a great baserunning team, but they just can't continue to run into outs on the basepaths.

Britton finished up his piece asking which players became a more important part of the Mets future and which may have made themselves expendable. 

2 comments:

Tom Brennan said...

Gsellman was a shocker to me when called up in 2015. He had bad numbers in Vegas, but great numbers in 2016. Mostly weak since, so I wonder if he is better off pitching for a 60 win franchise.

The pitching - and loss of Stroman and Thor - cooked this team.

Dallas said...

Stroman opting out and Matz completely forgetting how to pitch probably hurt the Mets more than any other individual player that wasn't injured. I have to agree about the baserunning. It seemed like every single night they were running themselves out of an inning or rally. McNeil had more than his fair share of blunders there.

The Mets do have a log jam offensively. I assume they have to move somebody. I'm not sure how they find room for a guy like Guillorme with the smaller rosters next year without moving a Cano/Davis or Rosario. On a Mets podcast they talked about going with Nimmo at CF again next year because it just gives the Mets more options with their current roster and the drop in offense probably doesnt make this a significant enough upgrade and there are simply more pressing needs to deal with (Catcher, Starting Pitching)