10/9/20

Tom Brennan - WHICH METS HITTERS' PRE-SEASON PERFORMANCES WERE A REGULAR SEASON PERFORMANCE PRECURSOR?




Sometime, trying to figure out from Mets players’ pre-season performance who will then do bad or good during the real season can be like driving through a fog.  

But the season is over, the fog has cleared, so, c’mon, man, let's take a look back.

It was truly a bizarre season, preceded by a bizarre spring training taking place in February to mid-March...and also in July, which is not exactly springtime.

Given that scenario, which Mets hitters gave a real hint of what they'd do in the season?  

"Good indicator."

And who didn't? 

"Non-indicator"

Let's take a quick look in that regard in this article at the hitters.

PETE ALONSO - good indicator.  

Prior to his weak 2020 season, he was just 11 for 45 with 2 doubles, no HRs, and no walks in pre-season.  Recall that in Spring Training 2019, he was a total beast who blasted his way onto the team, and then blasted his way to an MLB rookie HR record. I guess, after his weak pre-season, we should have been concerned.

WILSON RAMOS - good indicator.

He was just 6 for 31 with one HR, 3 RBIs, and 1 walk.  Perhaps early signs of decline that we hope were not indicative. But were.

BRANDON NIMMO - good indicator.

The man that I nickname "OBP .400" had - you guessed it - a .400 OBP in pre-season.  Some guys love getting on base.  

The next guy?  Seemingly not so much.

AMED ROSARIO - good indicator.

His .194 average and .237 OBP in the spring was eerily predictive of his July and August starting out the regular season.  His .272 season on base % gave him lots of time to socially distance in the dugout.

JEFF MCNEIL - good indicator.

He hit .400 pre-season.  While he had a few slumps in 2020, for the stretches when he hit well, he hit .400.  Some dudes just plain hit.

JD DAVIS - good indicator.

His .263 pre-season was followed by a .247 season.  He hit .263 or higher the whole season, until a late season slump.

ROBINSON CANO - inconclusive indicator.

He missed most of pre-season # 2 in July, and ended up just a fairly decent 7 for 26 with 3 doubles in total pre-season action.  The great hitters know how to get prepared, though, and he hit great while he was healthy during the season.

DOMINIC SMITH - total non-indicator.

He hit just .097 in pre-season, but was the Mets' best hitter during the irregular regular season.  Dom, great strategy, I am all in favor of saving up all your hits for the regular season.

MICHAEL CONFORTO - non-indicator.

He was just 7 for 31 with 1 HR and 1 RBI pre-season, but had a terrific 2020 when it counted.

ANDRES GIMENEZ - semi-good-indicator.

He wasn't bad pre-season with 6 for 28 hitting, but he Also walked 3 times, and had 2 doubles and a HR, an indicator of his modest 2020 regular season power to come.

LUIS GUILLORME - non-indicator.

His pre-season 4 for 26 with 1 walk and 9 Ks was totally inferior to his great (but limited time-wise) 2020 regular season performance.  Like Dom Smith, a hugely pleasant surprise after his poor pre-season.

JOHNESHWY FARGAS - non-indicator.

He hit .276 with a double, triple, and homer in pre-season, with 6 steals.  Seemed promising, but...  He never got a call up.

So, there were some warning signs, but it is hard to know ahead of opening day which pre-season struggles would become real concerns (Alonso, Ramos) and which would not (Smith, Guillorme).

Anyway...

Soon: A look at the pitching.

3 comments:

Mack Ade said...

A very interesting post from Steady Tommy

Tom Brennan said...

Before I first cursed, Mack, I like almost everyone was a precursor.

Kidding aside, I believe Pete will roar back in 2021. Because he will have strong preparation. He was struggling from the onset.

Reese Kaplan said...

If you had a pitcher who was coming off a legendary second season, would you offer up young Pete Alonso for him with Dom Smith becoming your first baseman?