It's been a very strange week or so between national news, pandemic news and the eradication of the Wilpons from the Mets fans' psyches. The celebrations have been spectacular and the optimism is reigning supreme. While it's fun to experience and to read, still there is something amusing about the misguidedness of a lot of it. To hear people talk, the only thing the Mets need to do to win is to improve the offense. You hear proposals for them to trade for Francisco Lindor and Nolan Arenado while signing free agents George Springer and J.T. Realmuto. That's one hell of a lineup for sure, and even more intimidating would be the corresponding size of the payroll. With multiple $20-$35 million salaried players added to an already impressive core, you'd think it would be a no brainer path to October baseball.
Unfortunately, as effective as these guys are at whacking a horsehide ball with a big wooden stick, the fact remains that good pitching beats good hitting. Remember that a superstar in baseball is a guy who fails at his given task 70% of the time by only hitting .300. The Big Red Machine was awesome to watch, but once they got past Don Gullett, they were living on a wing and a prayer that whomever was on the mound would keep it under 6 runs given up.
The great news that arrived in the form of Marcus Stroman accepting the Mets Qualifying Offer for $18.9 million helps tremendously for the 2021 season. Now the club has a three-man pitching rotation with the pint-sized pitcher, award winning Jacob deGrom and youngster David Peterson. Rather than looking at how to score 7 runs per game, perhaps some attention ought to be paid on how to prevent the other team from doing the same.
Anyone who watched the 2020 season saw that the lion's share of starting pitching was flat out awful. Yes, Jacob deGrom was his usual brilliant self and David Peterson performed at a better level than he did when he was toiling in the minors. Other than that, it was pretty much a given that the ballclub would lose the other games because they had batting practice caliber pitchers assigned to hold down the opposition. Needless to say, that approach failed miserably (and we're not yet even talking about the horrific bullpen other than Edwin Diaz).
Many folks are on the Trevor Bauer bandwagon as he is coming off a stunning season in which he struck people out with aplomb, kept hitters to well under 2 runs per game and was pretty much in a class by himself. Consequently the average fan is ready, willing and emotionally able to spend Steve Cohen's income to make sure Bauer calls Citifield home for the next five years or so. Given the numbers bandied about for the likes of folks in that caliber of pitching, it's not unreasonable for Bauer to want $150 or more for that five-year deal.
Turning age 30 this coming season, Bauer is an interesting but risky proposition. Even with his 1.76 ERA this past short season, his mark for his career is still 3.90. In 2018 he also pitched quite well with a 12-6 record and a 2.21 ERA. The rest of his career is highly forgettable. So the question for the prospective Bauer brigade is which Trevor Bauer will you get for that major investment? Is it the one who was pitching to an over 6.00 ERA in 2019 or the one who only twice in his 9 year career did he pitch at an All Star worthy level?
Personally, I like seeing a player rewarded for a consistent level of performance over a number of years. Bauer is not that guy and as much as I'd like to see him in a Mets uniform, I just don't see he's worth the fiscal ramifications next year and for the four years after that. The Mets are a team with a great many holes -- two starting pitchers, a couple of reliable relief pitchers, a centerfielder, a catcher, a choice of who's at shortstop and a decision about who's playing third base. If you tied up $30 million in a pitcher who cannot claim to be all that good for his career, then you are compromising what you can do to address other needs.
I'd almost rather see the Mets go after a 2-year deal for the more senior Charlie Morton who for the last four years of his career is 47-18, a 3.34 ERA and better than a strikeout per inning pitched. Last season for the Tampa Bay Rays he earned $15 million and is now available to the highest bidder. Given he'll be age 37 going into the 2021 season, he's likely to earn the same or less. Let's call it $12.5 million per year (two years for $25 million). That type of contract is more of a guarantee of strong pitching for a mere fraction of what Bauer would earn and the commitment would end by the time some of the farm club pitching is ready to ascend to the majors.
I've brought up other inexpensive pitchers in the past, including the former Mariner, Diamondback and Blue Jay Taijuan Walker. He's only 27 years old and pitched to a 3.84 ERA for his career. Reminder, Trevor Bauer, seeking long term riches, pitched to a 3.90 ERA for his career. Walker was at 2.70 last season and only earned $2 million. Even if his salary jumped significantly to say $5 million per year and you inked him to a three year deal, that's only $15 million in total investment.
There are many other pitchers becoming available through free agency, non-tender and simply roster reductions by other clubs. I don't necessarily see going after Bauer is the smartest short term deal because you're buying high, and not for the long term because he's after security for the foreseeable future. Between now and age 35 Bauer might still pitch as a healthy hurler, but at what level? I don't want to see Cohen and company making a splash simply to generate newspaper headlines. The road to the pennant is built both in the short term and long term. Bauer makes sense neither way.
6 comments:
Reese, this team needs pitching more than anything else.
Getting Stroman closed the pitching deficit a bit.
John's post this morning with Thor video showing him throwing hard from the rubber was exciting and makes me think an early season return is not beyond question, although they likely won't have him for April.
Morton? I'd be in on him. We need two starters better than Wacha and Porcello. They can latch on somewhere else. Maybe a Kluber?
I confess I saw little of CY winner Bauer this year - whether he can come close to replicating his 2020 and thus be worth the $$ is a great question. Sometimes, you have to be willing to gamble big, a topic I touch on at 9:30.
Reese, one way to help pitching is defense. Get McCann - team him with Nido. Keep an elite SS defender in Gimenez - get a CF. That could shave a run off everyone's ERA.
Also, Bullpen has to be better. There will be elite bullpen arms available this winter. Get them.
Why get only one pitcher? How about Morton and Ordozzi? Pitching wins, and while Thor may be back by Memorial Day and Matz can keep the seat warm, pitchers get hurt too. If everyone is healthy, put Peterson in the minors for a spell. Or, put Matz in the pen.
Reese, Thank you, Thank you, Thank you! You put to words my thoughts to a tee concerning Bauer. His total MLB body of work just does not justify the type of dollars floating around the news.
I don't understand why people put so much stock in one short and screwy season, especially one where all but one of his starts were against the lousy hitting Brewers, Pirates, Cubs, Tigers and Royals.
On a similar but different note, there was an interesting thread on MLB.com about the Mets reaching out to Yadier Molina. It mentioned that they could with both Molina and McCann to share much cheaper than Realmuto. To tie in another article I read a while ago, apparently Molina and Wainwright wanted to stay together. I could be good with that. Wainwright as the #3 or 4, Molina and McCann splitting the catching, would go a long way to filling the holes.
Texas Gus if Peterson pitches well, they won't send him down IMO. 6-2 gives him some rope. But Matz started 11-1. You pitch well you stay; you struggle, you go down.
That only works when the subject is players. Under the old regime, if you failed miserably at your job in the front office or as the on-the-field manager, you stayed and got rewarded with a contract extension.
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