Mets Prospects: The Next Wave

-Obviously, all Mets fans are starting to get excited about the "Class of 2011". Kids like 1B Ike Davis, 2B/SS Ruben Tejada, CF Fernando Martinez, and C Josh Thole have everybody talking in the chat rooms about how the Wilpons are going to solve their problems through the youth in their organization.

At the same time, many Mets fans first shake, and then, scratch their head over all the past surveys that had the Mets almost dead last  in potential prospect talent within the organization.

Who was right?  Well, actually both.

You see, many of the kids playing in the minors are... really kids...  either coming straight out of high school, or in the case of Latin America, almost right out of the crib. Those of us that do this for a living (sic) have learned very quickly that you can't project a 19-year old (no less a 16-year old that played on rocks with a milk carton for a glove only two years prior)... because he simply hasn't stopped developing yet.

College seniors? Yes, you re getting what you drafted.

College juniors?  Probably, yes too.

High School seniors?  No, sorry... Thole was orignally a catcher who was told to play first base when the Mets signed him... and Tejada hadn't caught a straight ground ball in his life.

The Mets minor league prospects are developing as I write, and a lot of their increased output can be accredited to even their winter assignment that ended last month. They are that young, and they are growing that fast.

So, who's the next bunch to look for? And, where are all the pitchers?

Here's some names to get familiar with:

SP Jeurys Familia -

“Family” signed with the Mets during the October 2007 International signing period. 2008 was spent with with the GCL Mets, where he went 2-2, 2.79, 1.14 in 11 starts. He quickly became the dean of the staff.


In September, Toby Hyde wrote: RHP Jeurys Familia – 2-2, 2.79 ERA, 11 GS, 51.2 IP, 46 H, 20 R, 16 ER, 2 HR, 13 BB, 38 K - I’d been told to expect big things from Familia’s right arm, but he was just ok when I saw him. I think the 18 year old just had an off day for me in Vero Beach. He showed off a fastball that was 89-92, mostly around 90, to go with two pitches - a slider (77, 78 mph) and a change up (84) - that need about the amount of work you’d expect from an 18-year old his first professional season. However, sometimes the big fastball is there from his loose delivery. In his first start in the GCL in 2008 he was dialing it up 94-96 mph. A scout from an American League club confirmed that he saw Familia dealing similar gas in instructs in 2007. So go figure.

In 2009, Familia pitched for the Savannah Sand Gnats: 10-6, 2.69, 1.16, 109-K, 134.0-IP.

His two year professional stats are: 12-8, 2.72, 1.16.

Forecast written in Sept 09: - Nothing but blue skyfor the 19-year old, but his job is just beginning. We’ve seen many a pitcher do well in rookie and A ball, only to fade away by the time they compete AA. Familia definitely loos like the real deal, but it is too early to tell. He’ll rotate with his Sand Gnat buddies for a new coach in Flordia and we wish him well.

Update: March 2010:  - reports from the back fields at ST say that Familia is "hitting" 100...
 

SP Robert Carson -

Carson had a disappointing senior season at Hattiesburg, finishing 3-5 with only 36 Ks. The bright spot was his 2.65 ERA. As a junior, he went 5-2 with 2 saves and a 2.15 ERA with 60 Ks.


The Mets drafted Carson in the 14th round of the 2007 draft. He signed and was placed on The GCL Mets roster, where he went 1-0, 5.00 in 4 games, 1 start.

Scouts say he has a “big time arm” and throws a “heavy” fastball. Carson features 4 pitches, a fastball, changeup, cutter and curveball. His fastball sits 90-92, and has topped out at 94. His changeup sits around 75-80, while his curveball is low to mid 70s.

In 2008, Carson started out with the GCL Mets and pitched impressively: 1-0, 1.57, 0.74. He was promoted to Kingsport, where he went 2-3, 1.76 in 6 starts.

In September 2008, Toby Hyde wrote: LHP Robert Carson – 1-0, 1.57 ERA, 5 GS, 23 IP, 11 H, 5 R, 4 ER, 6 BB, 25 K - A pair of dominant outing in July, 12 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 16 K, proved that big lefty was ready for challenges beyond the GCL and earned him a promotion to Kingsport. Carson missed much of 2007 after being struck on the head by a ball, but had a healthy and productive ’08. Carson is the only player in this GCL review who I didn’t see play live, since he threw the day before I arrived in Florida. His fastball sat was 90-93, and his secondary offerings were a slider and a changeup. He told me in July that he was very pleased with the development of the slider this year. As a lefty with good size and velocity, I really like Carson’s ceiling – which could be an MLB rotation sometime around 2012 or so. Projected 2009 Start: Savannah

9-9-9 From www.hardballtimes.com: - Speaking of that 2011 St. Lucie rotation, Carson is another young pitcher who impressed for Savannah this year. Jumping from Rookie ball in 2008 to A ball this year, the 20 year-old lefty features a low 90's fastball (tops out around 92 MPH) that helped him to a 3.21 ERA and 3.37 FIP. Carson has to work on getting more whiffs if he wants to compete at higher levels.

In 2009, Carson pitched a full season for Savannah and went: 8-10, 3.21, 1.40, but only 90-K in 131.2-IP. He also walked 45 batters.

Carson’s 3 year pro stats are: 12-13, 2.87, 1.34.

Forecast written in Sept 09: - Carson would have been ranked higher if he finished the season strong, but he didn’t. The Mets should have bumped him to St. Lucie at least two months prior to the end of the season, but they didn’t, and that could have been hanging over Carson. There’s a hell of a lot of talent here along with his confidence and bravado. I look for a tremendous season at St. Lucie in 2010.

SS Wilmer Flores -

Flores was signed as an international free agent in October 2007.


Iin late January 2007, Baseball America ranked Flores as the 17th overall Mets prospect, adding: "should grow into his body and become a force with the bat ... ..internal comparisons to Miguel Cabrera for his present pull power and ability to use the whole field."

In February 2008, Baseball Prospectus named Florez a 3-star prospect, and ranked him as th 4th overall Mets prospect. Also in February 2008, Rotoworld ranked Flores as the #15 Mets prospect.

In March 2008, Baseball America wrote: Ten prospects to watch out for in 2008: Wilmer Flores, SS Since Omar Minaya took over as general manager, the Mets have been extremely active on the Latin American scouting front. Flores is the latest high-profile prospect to join the system and the Mets are very excited about what he can do, especially after a strong showing at instructs. Flores is lean and tall and his best tool is undoubtedly his bat, drawing comparisons to a Miguel Cabrera when he first began his pro career. He'll stay at shortstop for now, but there's a chance he'll grow out of the position and end up at third. It's up in the air where he'll begin the year and the Mets will use Spring Training to determine if he's ready to go to Savannah on Opening Day or if having him stick around in extended spring training makes more sense

In late July 2008, ProjectProspect updated their “top 25 non-top 100 prospects” and guess who made the list: #10 Wilmer Flores SS What a way to start a career: .360 BA, .640 SLG, 5 HR in 75 AB

Also in late July 2008, ProjectProspect.com updated their top 10 Mets prospect list and Flores was ranked 6th

In August 2008, NYBaseballDigest wrote:Wilmer Flores was the top International Free Agent signed by Omar Minaya in the 2007 season. He was signed for roughly $800,000 in comparison to some other “top level” talent that got bonuses in excess of a million dollars, or like Michel Inoa who received over $4 million. Flores is quickly emerging as a premium talent, even being mentioned by Minaya in an article about the importance of Pedro Martinez and how his signing led to guys like Flores and Fernando Martinez signing.

Flores just turned 17 years of age at the beginning of August. He was expected to be brought to the US for this season, but it was widely expected he’d play in the Gulf Coast League where he’d still be young, as the average age of a player in the GCL is roughly 18-19. But instead, the Mets decided to push Flores and see what he could do in Kingsport against competition with an average age of 21-22.

Flores has responded. He has played in 53 games thus far, and is sporting a .332 batting average to go with 8 home runs and 40 RBI. His on-base percentage is at .374, while his OPS(on base+slugging) is hovering near .900 at .897. He also has 12 doubles, and 3 triples to go with his 8 home runs to make 23 extra base hits in 53 games. He will need to work on his plate discipline, as he only has 11 walks, with 25 strike outs.

Flores gets a lot of comparisons to Miguel Cabrera by scouts. Cabrera also was signed as a 16 year old out of the International Free Agent market for what was at the time the biggest bonus given to an international free agent at roughly $1.6 million. Cabrera came state side for his 16 year old/17 year old season, and played in the aforementioned Gulf Coast League with the average age of 18-19. Comparatively speaking he played against younger, and more raw talent than Flores has experienced in the Appalachian League.

Cabrera played in 57 games, hitting .260 with a .344 on base percentage, and had an OPS of .696. He hit 2 home runs, and drove in 22 runs with 10 doubles, and 2 triples. He struck out 46 times, while walking 23. It’s early to deem Flores the next superstar, or the next Miguel Cabrera, but statistically speaking based on age/level, he’s more than comparable. They both played the shorstop position at the 16/17 age. Flores is expected to outgrow short, and possibly be a third baseman, or a first baseman, or even a left fielder long term. Ironically those are the three positions Cabrera has played.

To compare, Flores has hit for a higher average, hit more home runs, drove in more runs, reach base at a higher clip, and OPS significantly higher. He has more doubles, more triples, struck out almost half as many times as Cabrera, but also has walked less. Flores ranked 10th on my Mets Top 10 prospect list back in July, I imagine end of the season list he will be much higher. Flores is very much a prospect to keep an eye on for the long term.

Flores played most of the 2008 season for K-Port, played one game for Savannah, and finished the year with Brooklyn. His combined stats were: .307/.347/.468/.815, 8 HRs, 42 RBIs, in 68 games. Flores won the Sterling Award as the the top Met player for the 2008 Kingsport team.

In October 2008, From Kevin Czerwinski/MiLB.com: It's not as if what Wilmer Flores was doing this season was without precedent. After all, Elvis Andrus played in the Gulf Coast and Appalachian Leagues as a 16-year-old in 2005, while Carlos Triunfel played in the Midwest and California Leagues last year just after turning 17. Yet it still remains remarkable that someone so young could do so much so far from home at such a young age.

Flores split the 2008 season between the Appalachian and New York-Penn Leagues. He didn't turn 17 until August, yet for much of his time in Kingsport, his batting average hovered around .340. Only a late-season slump -- he had three hits in his final 25 at-bats -- brought his average down to a still-impressive .310.

The Venezuelan native also spent a day with Savannah of the Class A South Atlantic League (he went 2-for-5) and finished up the season by spending two weeks with Brooklyn, where he hit .267 in 30 at-bats. Overall, Flores -- who missed a week in July with a strained oblique muscle -- hit .307 with eight homers, 42 RBIs and a .347 on-base percentage this season. Now, he's down in Port St. Lucie participating in the Mets' Florida Instructional League program, doing even more to prepare for what New York is hoping will be a big Sally League season in 2009.

“He's a very impressive young player," said Adam Wogan, New York's director of Minor League operations. "He's a very talented player and he's making great strides. He certainly is an impressive individual." Flores, though young, has never played as much ball as he did this season. While some may be fearful that he's worn down by this point in the year, Wogan and the Mets aren't concerned. They won't work the kid until he drops in Florida but they also aren't planning to let him skate through camp. Wogan said that New York's Instructional League program is a bit different than it was a few years back. He said there is much more focus on the mental side of the game and more attention is paid to intra-squad games. With that in mind, the Mets have targeted a program for Flores and all their prospects.

"His individual play will be based on specific areas rather than game activity," Wogan said. "There might be guys who signed later and aren't quite as far along that it might be more important for them to get into games than it is in Wilmer's case. But we're certainly not worried or concerned that it's too much for him."

March 2009: My World Of Baseball listed the top Venezuelan born prospects and has Flores as number two: 2. Wilmer Flores SS (Mets) - As Wilmer develops he may end up looking more like Miguel Cabrera, which would make a stay at shortstop unlikely. As a below average runner who lacks first step quickness his best position may be third base or an outfield corner. Unlike Alcides, there is no question that Wilmer will have a powerful bat, but unlike Alcides his defensive tools are not suited for shortstop. The Mets will keep him there until he shows he becomes a liability at the position. As his bat develops don’t be surprised to see 30 homerun power.

In March 2009, Rotoworld ranked the Mets Top 10 Prospect: For Flores to hold his own as a 16-year-old in the Appy League would have been quite an accomplishment. However, the native of Venezuela was actually one of the circuit's better players, amassing an 842 OPS in 245 at-bats before a couple of brief stints at higher levels. Seen as a future 30-homer guy, Flores has supplanted Martinez in having the greatest offensive upside in the Mets' system. He's not going to last at shortstop, and his most obvious landing spot, third base, is likely out as an option with David Wright entrenched. However, it's something the Mets won't have to worry about for a few years yet.

Project Prospect updated their top 200 prospect list in March 2009: #48 Wilmer Flores SS Went .310/.351/.490 with .356 wOBA in 265 R-ball PA; puts ball in play: 4.5% BB, 10.6% K

9-9-9 From www.hardballtimes.com: - Oh, Wilmer. Mets fans went wild last year when the 16 year-old Venezuelan (who looks about 12) hit .310/.352/.490 for Rookie Kingsport. This year, Flores jumped up to Savannah at the A level and held his own, batting .264/.305/.332. As a 17 year-old in the Sally, that's not that bad. However, scouts say he won't stick at shortstop and that he will have to move to another position (most likely third base). Still, the performance is quite impressive given his age.

In 2009, Flores played the entire season for Savannah: .264/.305/.332/.637 in 488-AB, only 13 errors.

Forecast written in Sept 09:  We never know if the 16-year old bonus babies are going to make out until three, sometimes four, years later. Most don’t, and, frankly, the string is still out on Flores. He had an okay season in A-ball… yeah, I know, he’s old three years old… still, there’s no rush here, what with Miquel Tejada in line to step in if Jose Reyes goes down (or away). I wish they’d play him again in Savannah, but he’s probably on his way to Florida.

2B Jordany Valdespin - 

Valdespin was signed by the Mets as an undrafted international free agent in 2006.


He played one year for the DSL Mets, in 2007, hitting .245/.369/.338/.707 in 139 at bats. Someone must have liked what they saw in that .239 batting average because he went stateside in 2008.

In 2008, Valdespin played the entire season for the GCL Mets, though he only had 134 at bats. He hit .284/.319/.440

In 2009, Valdespin started the season for Savannah and was close to leading the league in hitting

Then, something happened. He was suspended from the team, banished back to extended camp, and eventually wound up back for the DSL team (.333/..421/.600/1.021 in 15 at bats).

Next stop was the GCL Mets followed by Brooklyn (.279/.338/.397) where he finished the season.

From: www.metsprospecthub.blogspot.com: - For the 2009 season, the Mets decided to jump Valdespin to Savannah, despite rather pedestrian numbers in the GCL, and early on, he justified that decision in a HUGE way, getting off to an unbelieveable start, with a .385/.406/.615/1.021 line in April, until he was suspended for conduct deterimental to the team. Upon his return, he middled around for 16 games, but over his last 5 games, he is once again freakishly hot (11 for 22, 5 2b, RBI, 1/7 BB/K, 2 SBs). Overall this season, as of May 31st (before the game today), Valdespin is hitting .313/.358/.463/.821, 46 for 147, 29 runs, 9 2b, 2 3b, 3 HR, 18 RBI, 11/31 BB/K, 7/9 SBs, with a .211 K rate, and a corresponding .3548 BB/K ratio. Valdespin has improved markedly against LHP this year, he's hitting .306/.390/.361/.751 against them this year (11 for 36, 6 runs, 3b, 4 RBI, 5/8 BB/K, SB, .222 K rate, .6250 BB/K ratio), while against RHP, he's hitting .315/.347/.495/.843 (35 for 111, 23 runs, 9 2b, 3b, 3 HR, 14 RBI, 6/23 BB/K, 6/8 SBs, .207 K rate, .2608 BB/K ratio).

Forecast written in Sept 09: - As many of you know, I’m one of the beat reporters for the Savannah Sand Gnats and I’m pretty close with the folks there. That being said, I never could find out what Valdespin did to cause him being taken out of A ball when he was doing so well. All I can say is it was definitely something no one wanted to talk about. The next question would be, if the Mets management doesn’t change at the A-level, where does Valdespin play in 2010? Hopefuly, all is forgiven because he has showed to be a pretty good 1 or 2 hitter in a lineup.

I wrote on Feb 10: Jordany Valdespin – this is the one you have to watch… highest ceiling of any Mets infielder in the system, and maybe the highest ceiling of any player period… the boy can hit, but also can piss off the coaches, so hopefully, we’ll see a new level of maturity this season. Remember his name… he’s a future major leaguer.