MOCK: - Baseball Prospectus

1. Washington Nationals: This is now a no-brainer. Over the course of the spring, we've slowly gone from "Will they take Harper?" to "Will they sign Haper?" to "How much will they pay Harper?" He's going No. 1, and you could even end up seeing a creative deal that, on paper, gets him more than Stephen Strasburg received.

Pick: Bryce Harper, C/OF, College of Southern Nevada

2. Pittsburgh Pirates: What was once a race that involved several players, including some of the top college arms, looks like it's been whittled down to two. Prep right-hander Jameson Taillon is the best non-Harper player in the country, but the Pirates fear what his price tag might be, and as ironic as it might sound they prefer Scott Boras client Manny Machado. Machado is the best high school position player in the country, and he projects to hit for both average and power. The only knock against him is average speed and a body that will thicken up, likely leading to a position change down the road.

Pick: Manny Machado, SS, Brito Private HS (FL)

3. Baltimore Orioles: With a number of high-ceiling teenage power arms to pick from last year, the Orioles instead went the safe route by choosing Matt Hobgood with the fifth overall pick. They won't make the same mistake again. Taillon is a relative steal at No. 3 regardless of the price. Between his size (6-foot-7, 230 pounds), upper-90s fastball, and plus-plus power curve, he's the best high school arm scouts have seen in the last few years.

Pick: Jameson Taillon, RHP, The Woodlands HS (TX)

4. Kansas City Royals: It's a rare year when the top three talents in the draft actually go with the first three picks, and that leaves the Royals with the first tough decision. Nearly all of their focus has been on college talent, and it could come down to a coin flip between Chris Sale and Drew Pomeranz. Sale has the edge on both of performance and scouting level, and his May 1 start against Clemson, when he struck out 10 over eight innings while giving up just four hits, eliminated concerns about his level of competition. This could go either way, still.

Pick: Chris Sale, LHP, Florida Gulf Coast

5. Cleveland Indians: The Indians are still working off a large list. After years of safe college choices, they were hoping to find some big upside with this pick, but nobody fitting that profile really makes sense here. One rumor gaining steam has them connected to high school righty Stetson Allie, a Cleveland-area product with better pure stuff than arguably anyone in the draft. However, an expected high price tag and extremely limited track record of success are scaring teams this high up more than they are being intrigued. Six weeks ago, Cleveland couldn't have dreamed of Pomeranz being available here, and they'll be happy to scoop him up.

Pick: Drew Pomeranz, LHP, Mississippi

6. Arizona Diamondbacks: Arizona has been focused on pitching all spring, specifically on the college type that can help quickly. Georgia Tech's Deck McGuire certainly fits that profile, but while he offers arguably more certainly than any pitcher in the draft, he doesn't rank high when it comes to upside. North Carolina's Matt Harvey has been surging up draft boards of late, and could land as high as No. 6 after looking like a mid-to-late first-round pick a month ago.

Pick: Matt Harvey, RHP, North Carolina

7. New York Mets: The Mets have been focused primarily on the college hitting class, with Michael Choice, Christian Colon, and Kolbrin Vitek all in play. Zach Cox might be best pure hitter in the entire draft, and if the Mets think he can become just acceptable at second base, his questionable power ceiling becomes less of an issue.


Pick: Zack Cox, 3B/2B, Arkansas

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