Full Name: Christopher SchwindenBorn: 09/22/1986
Birthplace: Visalia, CA
College: Fresno Pacific
Height: 6' 3"
Weight: 215
Bats: R
Throws: R
Chris Schwinden was basically a huge 2011 surprise for me and most Met fans. He was never "Bad" but he was also not supposed to be THIS good. let alone this good at AAA.
The nice thing to see with Schwinden is that he does have some "Stuff" to go along with his command. I'm not sure... but he might actually be better than Dillon Gee in terms of "Gifted-ness" He'll have a shot of winning a rotation spot with the Mets. Though... depending on who they sign he might have a lot or only a little competition. If he's a starter... he'd better prove it quick with Harvey, Familia and Mejia looming.
Schwinden's Scouting Report:
What Schwinden lacks in overall power and velocity, he makes up for with movement and command. His fastball usually falls between 90-92 MPH and he uses his control of the pitch to take control of the count. His go-to secondary pitch is a changeup that sits in the 80-84 range. He also shows a slider and a curveball. The slider is a solid pitch he can command but the "swing and miss" pitch is the curve.
Full Name: Matthew HarveyBorn: 03/27/1989
Birthplace: New London, CT
College: North Carolina
Height: 6' 4"
Weight: 210
Bats: R
Throws: R
Right... so before the season I was annoyed at how highly everyone rated Matt Harvey. He hadn't pitched a single frame for a professional team and he was suddenly better than guys who HAD been pitching... and pitching pretty well.
Then... he exploded onto the scene in Port St. Lucie and I kinda got a bit too excited about him. I realized the Mets would put him on the "Fast-Track" and that he had the potential to be an Ace.
Then... he got to Binghamton and came back to earth. My expectations of his ceiling didn't diminish but I was no longer dreaming of a 2012 debut.
Then... he finished the year strong and I began to wonder if Harvey was indeed going to have an outside shot of impacting the 2012 ball club. Also... I wondered if I might be bi-polar.
My actual prediction for Harvey's 2012 is pretty tame. He'll start the year in AA... follow Familia to AAA and... if the Mets are "In It" see only a taste of the bigs. If the Mets drop out of the race I could see him getting more than a taste.
Harvey's Scouting Report:
MECHANICS
Harvey generates mid-90s velocity from a high three-quarters release point with relative ease. Plagued by mechanical inconsistency as a sophomore, Harvey now operates with a simpler and better-paced motion. Previously, he would rush toward home plate with a forceful stride, causing his arm to play “catch-up”, which produced varying release points and a cross-body finish. This season, he has shown more consistency in getting his pitching arm-side forearm to a vertical position as his glove-side foot lands. As a result, he has eliminated that cross-body action, increased his hip-shoulder separation, and improved his tempo, which explains why he is now pitching with the best velocity and fastball command since he arrived on campus. He has a tendency to pull his shoulder out as he swings his arm into the high-cocked position, making it more difficult than necessary to repeat his arm path, but suggesting that he could improve his command still further. The adjustments Harvey has made to this point are a testament to his work ethic and aptitude, which have been questioned in the past.
PITCH REPERTOIRE
MECHANICS
Harvey generates mid-90s velocity from a high three-quarters release point with relative ease. Plagued by mechanical inconsistency as a sophomore, Harvey now operates with a simpler and better-paced motion. Previously, he would rush toward home plate with a forceful stride, causing his arm to play “catch-up”, which produced varying release points and a cross-body finish. This season, he has shown more consistency in getting his pitching arm-side forearm to a vertical position as his glove-side foot lands. As a result, he has eliminated that cross-body action, increased his hip-shoulder separation, and improved his tempo, which explains why he is now pitching with the best velocity and fastball command since he arrived on campus. He has a tendency to pull his shoulder out as he swings his arm into the high-cocked position, making it more difficult than necessary to repeat his arm path, but suggesting that he could improve his command still further. The adjustments Harvey has made to this point are a testament to his work ethic and aptitude, which have been questioned in the past.
PITCH REPERTOIRE
Harvey’s four-seam fastball sits in the 92-96 mph range and touches 98, but has proven very hittable over his college career because it lacks for life. This prompted he and pitching coach Scott Forbes to develop a two-seam fastball this spring, a heavy ball that arrives at 91-93 which he keeps in the lower-third of the zone. Harvey has relied on his two-seamer often – particularly late in games – to consistently generate weak contact and limit his pitch count, which helps explain why he has pitched deeper into games with greater frequency this season. His breaking pitch of choice is his slider, which comes in at 83-85 and flashes plus right now. The pitch gets good rotation and tilt when thrown well, but it will occasionally flatten out and give the appearance of a slow cutter. He has lost the feel for his power curveball, which had plus potential coming out of high school as a third-round pick of the Angels in 2007, often failing to stay on top of it and hanging way up in the zone. But he has previously demonstrated the requisite hand speed to spin a good one, so this degradation should just be temporary. Harvey exhibits feel for a changeup, a 79-83 offering with some tumble, although his motion is noticeably more deliberate from a side view.
Duh... Matt Harvey wins but keep in mind that Harvey needs to have another good year before the Mets will throw him into the mix for a starting job. Schwinden is already under consideration.
4 comments:
It's the pitching prospects with ace potential that always leave me wanting more once they've reached the Mets. Pelfrey's fragile mentality just isnt made for NY and has diminished his great ability, or actually, prevented him from reaching his potential. Humber was a bust in NY. Kazmir got traded and then did well for the Rays until his small stature caught up with his big arm. Mulvey was traded and faded to black. How about the Mets first pick in 09? Steven Matz is STILL recovering from tjs and has yet to throw a pitch in pro ball. Now, I know quite a few of these guys were never lumped into the same catagory as generation 2k in terms of their talent, but my point is that for whatever reason, the Mets have a hard time getting their young pitchers to the majors. I'm talking about the early round picks that supposedly have the most potential and upside. Obviously Gee and Niese are very good young pitchers, but I'm talking about those "gifted" young stars who haven't seemed to develop into front of the rotation studs like they were meant to. The last real star was probably Gooden in 84. Thats a long time to go without drafting and developing a number one pitcher. I dont believe Bobby Jones, Mike Pelfrey, and the others qualify as the aces i'm talking about. There has been a lot of mediocrity over the years and I hesitate to get too excited about these guys until they're on the mound in Queens striking out their tenth batter in the fifth inning. Which means, I haven't been too excited about too much in a long freaking time! I wonder if it has been poor drafting, poor coaching, or just a franchise wide inability to develop pitchers because of lack of know how. If I just think about each teams starting rotation right now, I can pretty much find a great young starting pitcher that they have farmed. Try it. The scariest part is that the Mets haven't succeeded in this area despite drafting hundreds and hundreds of pitchers over the last thirty years, so it's not like they didn't have the talent at some point. Maybe i'm just babbling, but until they can prove otherwise, my skepticism about these pitching prospects will not waver. Just wondering, does anyone else believe that all these great pitching prospects are actually going to come up and be great. Will Harvey, Wheeler, Familia, and Mejia come up and be as good as advertised? Will only one of them, or maybe just two actually settle into the rotation and dominate for years to come? Are they that good, because that just doesnt happen to the NY Mets and I would be so happy if just one could actually live up to the hype.
Well, Wheeler seems like the one that has the best shot because the Mets didn't draft him :)
seriously, I've been doing this for quite awhile and it's been a long time since there have been 4 plus starters at the AA-AAA level.
The last time the Mets came close to this was with Generation K + a guy named Juan Acevedo.
The odds are against all four becoming stars.
The biggest downside is none project out as an ace.
My guess right now is Familia doesn't pan out and that the surgery on Mejia will push him to be a s0-so reliever.
BTW - I'd be thrilled with two great starters out of these four
I'd be thrilled with one!
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