The Great Jose Debate Begins

Now that the season is over, the batting title is won and the team looks towards 2012, you are going to hear the name Jose Reyes A LOT. Jose was the BEST player on the Mets in 2011. Sure... Carlos Beltran had a GREAT start to the year and may have landed the Mets with a future Ace, but Jose was the brightest star.

I read a very good article in the NY Post on Jose and how the Mets are in a Lose/Lose scenario with Reyes in terms of bidding. We've heard it all before:
  • He's injury prone
  • He's the spark plug of the offense
  • He's already lost a step
  • He's one of the most POPULAR players with the fans
  • The Wilpons are cheap
  • The Wilpons don't want to appear cheap
  • Alderson doesn't like long contracts
  • He's home grown.
  • We obviously can't keep him
  • We obviously can't let him go
A 2012 WITH Reyes:
Glass Half Full: The Mets sign Reyes for 6 years and $105 Mil. Reyes does start 95% of the games and has a good year. The pitching, led by Johan Santana and Jon Niese, holds strong and the Mets win the division with healthy batting out-put from Reyes, Wright, Davis and Jason Bay. Matt Harvey is called up in September and surges to a great opening display, and will be the #3 pitcher in the playoff rotation.

Glass Half Empty: The Mets are forced to offer Reyes 6 years and a vesting option for a 7th. Reyes has an okay year but is hobbled before the All-Star break and starts only 65% of the games. David Wright continues to be hot and cold while Jason Bay is benched in favor Fernando Martinez. The team finishes 5th in the division as the Nationals promote Bryce Harper and surge ahead.

A 2012 WITHOUT Reyes:
Glass Half Full: The Mets watch Jose Reyes leave and use the money they would have spent on Reyes signing Yu Darvish. Meanwhile Ruben Tejada is given the job at SS and Reese Havens wins the starting 2B job in spring training. The story of the year is how the Mets are on the rise as Darvish sparkles and Havens earns an All-Star selection in his first year. Harvey joins the team in late September and the Met 2013 future looks bright.

Glass Half Empty: Not only DON'T the Mets sign Reyes but they fail to land a single legit star. Attendance dwindles and David Wright announces to the media that he would like to be traded. To make matters worse, Johan Santana doesn't pitch a single inning and the team is completely out of the playoff race by Mid-June. Harvey and Familia both get promoted but struggle under the pressure of being looked on as saviors.

Right... so... probably something in the middle of those scenarios either way it shakes out. Here is the basic gist. The Mets sign Reyes, they WILL pay too much. The Mets don't sign Reyes, they get two picks and become the laughing stock of the big-market teams (losing countless fans). I love Reyes as a fan but I love the Mets too and want them to win.

Frankly I don't envy Alderson's position...


Phlavio said...

Here is hoping that the Wilpons discover oil somewhere and decide to invest the proceeds into the Mets.

Mack said...

More Yu man-love...

My vote remains to sign him.

He and Reyes are the face of the team.

I would build around them two regardless how either of them play.

But, that's just me.

Phlavio said...

Mack, if the Mets didn't sign Reyes and wanted to sign an impact player there are only 4 options:

C.C. Sabathia (Won't leave the Yankees, but will opt out of contract)

Prince Fielder (Defense makes him a problem and forces Davis into the outfield or trade market)

Albert Pujols (MAYBE [Gut says NO WAY] would play the outfield but probably pushes Davis off the team)

Yu Darvish (Is going to be 25, and has a repertoire that I think translates well to the MLB)

Who do you sign?

Wright and Reyes are the face of the team, but you need to understand that Jose will cost a lot and get 6 years or more and that he'll likely be a tremendous risk. I still cannot accept that the Wilpons could play the pauper and not give Alderson a budget equal to the starting budget for 2011.

Mack said...

I would offer Reyes $21/mil for 4 years.

I'd let his agent get a 5th year out of me.

Then, I'd be done.

I have nothing against Darvish... my reference to him was only a stab at humor...

actually, I can't help it if I think like an old CEO...

I would make the above mentioned offer to Reyes, sleep well at night if he says no, then take that money and use it in the lawsuit settlement.

I'd take all the heat and shit I could handle for another year... and then be done with this mess come the 2013 FA market

Charles said...

Wow. Phlavio should be writing murder mysteries for CBS. You sure do come up with some crazy scenarios. Unfortunately, at this point, it seems as if it's going to be Jose Reyes and a closer. If Reyes doesnt sign, I believe the Wilpons will take full advantage of those savings and actually just save it. It looks like another back seat winter, watching other teams wheel and deal, while the Mets stay in the headlines only because of a lawsuit.

Michael S. said...

It's a tough spot at this point. Signing him is dangerous and takes money away from other areas of need. Of course the Mets won't be able to bring in a true replacement for Reyes, however they can bring in another legitimate leadoff hitter - superstar leadoff hitters aren't a requirement for making the playoffs, I consider Reyes a luxury.

But, if they let him go they have to make sure to reinvest that money wisely. I think a real opportunity was lost to trade Reyes this season for two elite prospects (including at least one pitching).

Charles said...

Signing him isnt too risky financially. Remember, this team is rebuilding, but will be in a.very good situation come 2014. They'll have good, young, cheap pitching and the expiring contacts of Santana and Bay coming off the books. Thats 40 million right there. By then, the lawsuit will be over and the Wilpons might be able to kick the payroll back up to 135-140 million. Plus this year, no one thinks they'll compete for anything, so the payroll will be at 110 mill(thats with a Reyes signing). They can afford to pay him, even if he only gives you 130 games a years, he's a game changer and worth it.

Mack's Mets © 2012