I read a very good article in the NY Post on Jose and how the Mets are in a Lose/Lose scenario with Reyes in terms of bidding. We've heard it all before:
- He's injury prone
- He's the spark plug of the offense
- He's already lost a step
- He's one of the most POPULAR players with the fans
- The Wilpons are cheap
- The Wilpons don't want to appear cheap
- Alderson doesn't like long contracts
- He's home grown.
- We obviously can't keep him
- We obviously can't let him go
A 2012 WITH Reyes:Glass Half Full: The Mets sign Reyes for 6 years and $105 Mil. Reyes does start 95% of the games and has a good year. The pitching, led by Johan Santana and Jon Niese, holds strong and the Mets win the division with healthy batting out-put from Reyes, Wright, Davis and Jason Bay. Matt Harvey is called up in September and surges to a great opening display, and will be the #3 pitcher in the playoff rotation.
Glass Half Empty: The Mets are forced to offer Reyes 6 years and a vesting option for a 7th. Reyes has an okay year but is hobbled before the All-Star break and starts only 65% of the games. David Wright continues to be hot and cold while Jason Bay is benched in favor Fernando Martinez. The team finishes 5th in the division as the Nationals promote Bryce Harper and surge ahead.
A 2012 WITHOUT Reyes:Glass Half Full: The Mets watch Jose Reyes leave and use the money they would have spent on Reyes signing Yu Darvish. Meanwhile Ruben Tejada is given the job at SS and Reese Havens wins the starting 2B job in spring training. The story of the year is how the Mets are on the rise as Darvish sparkles and Havens earns an All-Star selection in his first year. Harvey joins the team in late September and the Met 2013 future looks bright.
Glass Half Empty: Not only DON'T the Mets sign Reyes but they fail to land a single legit star. Attendance dwindles and David Wright announces to the media that he would like to be traded. To make matters worse, Johan Santana doesn't pitch a single inning and the team is completely out of the playoff race by Mid-June. Harvey and Familia both get promoted but struggle under the pressure of being looked on as saviors.
Right... so... probably something in the middle of those scenarios either way it shakes out. Here is the basic gist. The Mets sign Reyes, they WILL pay too much. The Mets don't sign Reyes, they get two picks and become the laughing stock of the big-market teams (losing countless fans). I love Reyes as a fan but I love the Mets too and want them to win.
Frankly I don't envy Alderson's position...