With apologies to the jumped-the-shark show, “Survivor”, let’s suppose you’re on a deserted island somewhere and there is little food, dwindling water and dwindling stamina and no visible means of getting off the island. You’re in the driver’s seat and it’s your job to decide how not only to survive but to win. What would you do?
That thought came to mind when analyzing the myriad of problems facing the New York Mets. They can’t score runs. Two of the pitchers they counted on for 2014 are down with injuries (Matt Harvey and Jenrry Mejia), Jonathon Niese missed a chunk of 2013 on the DL and Zack Wheeler was shut down prior to the end of the season due to shoulder stiffness. They lost their closer.
On the offensive side of the ledger it’s even bleaker. Lucas Davisatin combined to produce the worst 1st base offense in baseball. Murphy turned in a solid year but then there is the so-called offense of my El Paso brethren Omar Quintanilla who handles a bat like Roger Cedeño handled a glove. The saddest part, however, is that his offense was actually superior to the former incumbent’s – Ruben Tejada – who has enjoyed a view from his nest in Terry Collins’ doghouse almost since his arrival. Latecomer Wilfredo Tovar is cut in the classic mold of good glove/no bat that many middle infielders fit to a T. David Wright, when he was on the field, nearly earned his bloated paycheck with nice numbers.
No comments need be made about the dearly departed – not dead, but no longer with the Mets contingent – in the outfield. That left us towards year end with some combination of Eric Young, Jr., Andrew Brown, Juan Lagares, Matt den Dekker and Mike Baxter in the outfield. Young doesn’t get on base as much as he should and has a noodle for an arm, but his speed is undeniable both in helping him corral fly balls and on the basepaths where he led the league in stolen bases. Lagares showed defensive wizardry and a cannon of an arm, but at times was overmatched at the plate. den Dekker gets a pass (or more accurately in academic terms, an incomplete) as he did not play enough to assess his true value. Brown hit with occasional power but only seemed to tee off on lefthanders. Baxter is the latter day Endy Chavez – revered for what he did with the glove ONE TIME and that makes the fans wear blinders when it comes to his overall value – overmatched and AAAA at best.
The catching corps also has some incomplete grades handed out to both starter Travis d’Arnaud whose defensive skills seemed ahead of his offensive ones, and to little Juan Centeño who has surprisingly played himself into a respectable singles hitter while continuing to be above average behind the dish. Anthony Recker seems like a very nice guy and pitchers had a better record when he caught than they did for the departed John Buck. Unfortunately he struggled around the Mendoza line for most of the year in between his half dozen home runs.
The bullpen started off horrendously but then went through stretches when it was far better than it seemed. Unfortunately, it seemed just as one pitcher got hot, another got cold. Injuries doomed several of the relievers, including Bobby Parnell, Tim Byrdak, Pedro Feliciano, Jeurys Familia, Frank Francisco, Scott Rice (whose arm was likely due to fall off anyway before the hernia mercifully put his season at an end), Josh Edgin and Scott Atchison. Then there were the others whose mere incompetence limited their usefulness, including Brandon Lyon, Robert Carson and frequent flyer mileage champion Greg Burke. The brightest light all season long was the well traveled LaTroy Hawkins who showed 40 is the new 30.
Then there’s the on-the field management. The team has had three straight dismal, losing seasons under Terry Collins and he’s rewarded with a new contract. They were at or near the bottom in nearly every offensive category except drawing walks, so Walking Man Dave Hudgens is retained. Pitchers suffered more injuries under this regime than any other, so Dan Warthen, of course, returns. Frankly I’m less upset about the latter than the previous two, but there’s no sense crying over spilled beer (which, at $10 or so per cup ought to pay for a free agent or two).
So here we are back on the island. All trends look dismal but we hear rumors that “The Plan” is about to be implemented. Here’s what we’ve gleaned thus far:
We need a veteran innings eater to make up for the loss of Matt Harvey. Never mind that Jenrry Mejia, Rafael Montero, Jacob de Grom, Darin Gorski, Noah Syndergaard, Carlos Torres and the latecomers to Queens – Dice-K and Aaron Harang – are all available to fill the two starting pitching vacancies.
We need a veteran backup catcher because you never know with Travis d’Arnaud’s health. Hmmn…it wasn’t that long ago that we heard the same rumblings about Jose Reyes, yet he managed to put together a highly respectable career (including a batting title). You have two decent defensive catchers in Recker and Centeño who can back him up if needed. You think you want a veteran reserve catcher? Why? If the reserve could hit he’d be starting. Bringing in a Gerald Laird or Henry Blanco doesn’t seem like the best use of scare financial resources. Also, what does it say to a young talent like d’Arnaud if you push the panic button the first time he’s in an 0-10 slump?
We’re interested in going back to the future with Marlon Byrd and Carlos Beltran. Well, after striking dollar store gold with Byrd, do you really think he’ll settle for a piddly little $3 million deal? He’s 36 and having a career year, and went to the post season for the first time ever. Do you think he’ll want to come back for a hometown discount? Pssst…his hometown now is Pittsburgh! Carlos Beltran is more likely interested in a a part deux, but he’s coming off a $13 million contract for hitting .296 with 24 HRs and 84 RBIs. Guess what Byrd did for $700K? He hit .291 with 24 HRs and 88 RBIs. Can you say delusional? The front office wants to add a pair of 37 year olds who will probably earn $10 million or more apiece. How exactly does this move bode well for the future? The only saving grace is the terms of the contracts which should be relatively short. However, the team is not just one or two pieces away when this type of past-his-prime veteran is a worthwhile investment.
Foreign free agents like Jose Abreu or Masahiro Tanaka are too risky. Do the words Jason Bay or Oliver Perez ring a bell? Just because someone has “proven” themselves in the big leagues doesn’t mean they’re a lock to perform after signing a new contract. Yes, for every Ichiro or Yu Darvish or Yasiel Puig or Aroldis Chapman or Yoenis Cespedes there are the Kaz Matsuis and Jorge Tocas of this world to prove that stats don’t always translate upon arrival. However, in the case of foreign free agents there is nothing to lose but money – no secondary draft picks – and they usually come at a lower per-year cost than do existing free agents. Puig is getting a modest $6 million per year while Cespedes is getting $9 million. His production in a down year was 26 HRs and 80 RBIs. That’s Beltran territory for $4 million less.
We can’t give up on Ike Davis because he once hit 32 HRs after a slow start. Brady Anderson once hit 50 HRs and never exceeded 24 again. Are we reserving a plaque for him in Cooperstown? Yes, it’s possible Ike Davis could go on and morph into Chris Davis, but it’s equally possible he can go the way of Kevin Maas – an encouraging start and a rapid decline as pitchers learned his weaknesses. It’s time to move on. Neither Lucas Duda nor Josh Satin is the full time answer. The guy who looked good before his ankle blew out was forgotten and belittled Wilmer Flores. Everyone seems to have forgotten he was driving in runs steadily before his injury. I’d sooner give him benefit of doubt than watching the lefty strikeout kings or the worst set of eyebrows this side of Conor Jackson.
At shortstop the Mets are said to be looking closely at Stephen Drew. Really? He’s coming off a contract that paid $9.5 million. In a bandbox in Boston he hit a whopping 13 HRs and drove in 67 while hitting .253. And he struck out 124 times! The scary thing is that it was his best offensive year since 2010. Contrast that with Jhonny Peralta who pre-steroids revelation earned a mere $6 million and produces on average 18 HRs and 80 RBIs while hitting for a higher average. One of these things is not like the other…
Do any of these stories carried in the media make sense at all? Anyone who looks at this team realizes that offense is its primary concern because pitching exists and is also in reserve in the minors. They need to fill holes at 1B, SS, LF and RF (perhaps bundling off Daniel Murphy in trade to open up 2B for Eric Young to assume his natural position). Right now it seems we will see more head scratching moves as they plan to punt another year before it even begins.
2 comments:
Reese -
I agree with most of your assessments, especially first base, shortstop, and backup catcher.
All I want for Christmas is corner outfielders.
My gut says Wilmer Flores can turn into a John Olerud type of hitter if given the chance. Keith Hernandez was another Mets first baseman without prototypical power. Of course, both of those guys could flash the leather at 1B, too, not something young Wilmer can do. However, if they don't go outside the organization then they would at least be showing some faith in a new face as a positive sign of change rather than the same old same old. Then again, you have to consider who is filling out the lineup card. Flores would likely get the Cowgill treatment -- anointed the starter then lifted after 2 games.
I know I'm in the minority here, but I stand by my "Just say no" to Beltran and Byrd for the outfield. Puello and Lawley may make it to the big leagues by 2015 but there's no guarantee. Consequently you need to get at least one corner outfielder who's not soon to be receiving his AARP application in the mail.
The more I think about it, the more I'm coming around to a Napoli or McCann type of signing for 1B because you have your built-in backup catcher if you do lose d'Arnaud for a long stretch of time.
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