Playoff Baseball –
I talk about this same subject every year during the playoffs.
We Mets fans spend most of the season having tunnel vision. We are so involved with our own team and the players within it, that we never compare it to the talent level of some of the teams that play this game. We scrape and claw during games with teams like Milwaukee, Philadelphia, and Miami, only to be overwhelmed when we play a series against teams like Detroit or the Dodgers.
We live in the NL East and out beast is the Atlanta Braves, but they barely could compete with the likes of Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke, Brian Wilson, Hanley Ramirez, Juan Uribe, and Yasiel Puig.
As Hyman Roth said, ‘this is the business we’ve chosen’ and the Mets are a long way away from competing at this level.
There will be some changes to the roster this off season and I’m sure the five least talented members of the 2013 25-man squad will be replaced by more talented players. They won’t turn this team into the Dodgers but it will get better.
You want to be the Dodgers?
Current salaries: $33mil
1B Mike Napoli: $13mil
2B Robinson Cano $20mil
SS Jhonny Peralta $10mil
RF Chin-Soo Choo $13mil
CF Jacoby Ellsbury $15mil
LF Marlon Byrd $6mil
Total Mets salaries before ARB additions - $110mil
Enjoy October.
Dan Kirby -
A 6’-0” left-hander out of Serra HS in Gardena, California, Dominic Smith was considered the best pure hitter available in the 2013 MLB draft by many. The first baseman proved everyone right in his first go-around in pro ball, hitting .301/.398/.439 over 51 games, mostly for the GCL Mets. He got promoted to Kingsport of the Appalachian League late in the year and went 4-for-6 with four doubles and two walks over three games. Dominic Smith is a kid who should contend for batting titles at the next level and has power still developing. His success in his first season already has some ranking him in the top five among Mets prospects — not too shabby for an 18-year old. I recently had a chance to bounce some questions off Dominic Smith and would like to thank him for his time... http://throughthefencebaseball.com/interview-new-york-mets-top-prospect-dominic-smith/38609#eZSHiM4Ih8LxXQoJ.99
Mack – Smith is turning out to be a good choice as a number one draft pick. As I have said in earlier posts, it will be interesting to see where he starts off in 2014. Some feel he could go as high as Savannah. My guess is Brooklyn, but suffice to say, the Mets made a good one here.
Jared Diamond –
The question now becomes whether the Pirates will be able to attract other veterans to come aboard. The players seem to think so. When asked if he has seen willingness in recent years among veterans to consider smaller markets, Burnett nodded and responded, "100%." Based on how this postseason has gone, Pittsburgh certainly looks like a desirable destination. The atmosphere at PNC Park has been more like college football than baseball. Melancon said seeing these crowds "is going to be huge for free agents." That remains to be seen. But one thing is certain: The players who have taken the plunge are sold. "When guys ask me about Pittsburgh, I'll say, it's a great place to play," Byrd said. "If you can come, come - http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304441404579121382499677464.html?mod=rss_newyork_sports
Mack – I’ve said this time and time again. This is the tie-breaker when agents bring the deals they have negotiated for their clients to them. Pittsburgh is rocking the house and there isn’t a player in baseball that doesn’t want to be part of this kind of atmosphere in the near future (or, until it goes away). You can’t compete with this when your team is playing below .500 ball and your top pitcher is under the knife. You just can’t.
Mike Podhorzer -
Strikeouts – Matt Harvey - From my initial write-up, a bit of prophecy? His innings total will be key here… He ranked third in the National League in strikeouts per nine innings, but of course he had no chance of taking the strikeout lead after his season ended early due to the elbow injury. Still, it would have been nearly impossible to overtake Kershaw anyhow as he would have had to pitch 220 innings with the same K/9 to beat him. I highly doubt he would have been allowed to throw that many innings even if he remained healthy. He’ll undergo Tommy John surgery later this month and we’ll have to cross our fingers that he doesn’t miss a beat when he returns. http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/reviewing-my-2013-bold-pitcher-league-leaders/
Mack – A bold pre-season prediction. One thing we haven’t discussed about Harvey. There is no way the Mets will allow him to pitch 200+ innings in 2015, so his first ‘full’ season will be 2016.
16 comments:
As I been saying, go after the PED players because they will be cheaper and what they did in 2013, had nothing to do with PED. They already knew they were going to be suspended.
If the Mets can sign:
Byrd RF
Nelson Cruz LF
Peralta SS
That would be a great start. If not Cruz then Beltran who had nothing to do with PED but its a monster with risp and lastly, Napoli for 1B and backup 3rd catcher.
I would also keep Centeno instead of Recker because he is a LH hitter.
That would be a much improved team with a chance to win it all. The best thing is that it would not require contracts of more than 2 years.
That gives the prospects like Puello time to develop and take over for Byrd in 2015.
That would put the Mets right around the 100M.
I know we have nothing to do but speculate at this point but didn't Sandy say he doesn't plan on pursuing anyone with draft pick compensation attached except for possibly Choo? That could potentially take Beltran, Cruz, Drew, Napoli & Granderson off of our free agent list. These are all the fringe players who may or may not be extended the qualifying offer. I understand that the front office doesn't want to lose a top 50 pick in a deep draft so the who does or doesn't get a qualifying offer could impact our free agent list greatly. Off all the players listed, I think all will get the offer except Drew.
Yes, he did say that.
Playoff Baseball is too simplfied in their thinking. Napoli, Choo, and Ellsbury are all expected to receiving ~$14m qualifying offers which they are expected to decline which means they will all make more than that. IMO Choo and Ellsbury make $17-$18M and Napoli makes $15M.
Also his starting salary line is incorrect plus doesn't take into account how impactful arbitration cases are going to be. He just grabbed it from Cot's which still includes Santana's buyout within 2014 salary even though Alderson has previously stated that they are counting it towards 2013 payroll.
That said the starting payroll is $28MM.
Anticipated Arb cases are as follows (assuming Davis, Murphy, Duda, Baxter, Q, and Atchison are all non-tendered or traded):
Dillon Gee - (MLBTR forecasted salary) $3.4M
Bobby Parnell - $3.2M
Ruben Tejada - $1.0M
Justin Turner - $800k
Eric Young - $1.9M
True starting payroll: $38.3MM
FA signings:
1B Mike Napoli - $15MM
2B Robinson Cano - $25MM (Reportedly seeking $30MM/yr)
SS Jhonny Peralta - $10MM
RF Chin-Soo Choo - $18MM
CF Jacoby Ellsbury - $17MM
LF Marlon Byrd - $6MM (Doubt he gets more than $3-4M though)
Payroll after FA signings: $123.3M
Renewable contracts to fill remaining roster spots @ $0.5M each:
Harvey, Wheeler, Mejia, d'Arnaud, Centeno, Satin, Flores, Black, Familia, Torres, Edgin, Hefner, Lagares, maybe brydak?
Final Payroll: $130.3MM
That number is just not feasible with today's attendance records. It's already been stated that we can't really go past $100MM.
Just because they decline the 1/14 offer doesn't mean they will exceed that offer annually on the free agent market. Napoli could turn down the 1/14 offer for a 3/36 deal via free agency. He's taking less annually while getting the long term deal he's looking for.
Still most of these guys figure to be right around or exceed the $14M annually number, except Drew. If he gets the qualifying offer, he'll take it, which is why he won't get the offer.
So if this front office is really adamant about not signing a player with draft pick compensation attached, then the targets probably become Drew/Peralta & Byrd. I think they'll stay in house at 1B but Abreu really fits the bill in terms of annual salary and no draft pick compensation.
Looks like we're going to need to trade for some power with CarGo as the top priority I believe. They could easily sign Peralta & Byrd for $15M combined, then sign a pretty good starting pitcher (Jimenez or Kazmir) and trade away Gee and/or Montero without missing a beat in the rotation.
So if they sign Jimenez ($13M/year), Peralta ($12M/year) & Byrd ($4M/year) that would probably put them right around $30M in free agent signings while enabling us to make a trade for a legit bat without depleting our pitching staff.
I think this approach makes sense if they don't want to lost the 2nd round draft pick. Jimenez, Peralta, Byrd & CarGo ... I'm down.
Chris -
You sign those players, and put up that lineup, and people will come to the stadium.
The point of my exercise is to show just how much talent the Mets can sign and still come in around $100mil - $110mil a year...
You can return this team to one of dominance in one off-season.
I know this will never happen but could you imagine if they brought in 6 new starters. That would definitely create a buzz and get people to the stadium
That's the point (and that's why I don't agree with Stephen here...). The Mike Piazza game proved that there are plenty of Mets fans that would come out and support this team if it had the right product.
Imagine a lineup of Choo, Cano, Wright, Ellsbury, Byrd, Napoli, Peralta, d-Arnaud, pitcher...
You'd make money
I think Ellsbury Cano and Napoli are all pipe dreams.
Id love the Mets to sign them!
But I cant see Sandy paying anymore than 13 million per season for a player.
I also don't see him signing any free-agent for longer than 3 years.
Except I see him shocking everyone and signing Abreu!
There is value in him? Also if he fails or doent produce to expectations,there are plenty of back-ups?
I also see Drew or Peralta being signed.
Aswell as Byrd,Hawkins.
Plus there will be a trade for another outfielder.
And 1 starter signed hopefully Arroyo and one on a high incentive.
Which I hope is Josh Johnson
Of course they are pipe dreams
Napoli isn't a pipe dream if he isn't extended a qualifying offer. And unless we are trading Gee or Montero, they wont be signing two starting pitchers like that. Maybe one like Ubaldo Jimenez and let Mejia, Dice-K & Harang battle for the 5th spot in Spring Training. If Gee isn't traded, I think Sandy wants a rotation of Niese, Wheeler, Gee, Free Agent starter & Mejia if he's healthy. Dice-K or Harang could get the short term nod if Mejia isn't ready.
I firmly believe we should move Montero this offseason and open his AAA rotation spot to Dice-K/Harang. That will leave us with multiple arms in AAA that could be called up at anytime for any reason. No more Swinden's making spot starts. AAA should have a solid rotation and bullpen for us to use as needed.
I am very excited for the possibilities with the pitching staff. We all know about Syndergaard but one of these other guys could become the next Gee of the staff.
Look this winter will answer ALOT of questions about just where we're going as a franchise. All of the above posts make sense but I wonder if the FO, after the Harvey news, haven't moved their 2014 projection to 2015-16. I REALLY hope I'm wrong but we all know Sandy's DNA is bargain basement signing's with a few good trades mixed in as long as he doesn't have to lose picks. Chris's and Mack's comments sound great and I think we'd all be on board with it but unfortunately I just don't see anything like it happening. With all of Sandy's draft pick's ( and Herrera ) maturing sometime in the 2015-2016 time frame as well as Harvey's first full season will also be 16' it makes you wonder what their REAL timeframe going forward is......time will tell.
Sandy never said anything like that on the record. "Sources" said that, and then it was reported.
Doesn't mean anything either way.
There's only two players that even have a slight chance of getting signed by the mets and they're both probably getting signed elsewhere.
Abreu and Choo
Abreu because he plays a position they need an upgrade in and has premium power which Alderson likes. His signing instantly ignites a fan base and frees up two players to be traded in Ike Davis and Duda.
Choo is an on base machine and also plays a position that they need help in. Unfortunately, I think he'll be too expensive and I actually agree that he isn't worth more then 13 million a year.
What do us Mets' fans have going for us: that Jeff Wilpon specifically said that he wants to get out of the "hope" business because it's a bad business model. That statement can mean very good things.
It's obvious that Jeff knows there's a very good reason why there's nobody at the games and horrible tv ratings during games. Because the mets have stunk! So obviously changes are coming and he himself wants the team to get better. Knowing the COO understands the rebuild must end now is going to help moving forward.
The Wilpons need to spend money this winter. Not just $30 million. They need to spend $50 to $60 million or as Hal Steinbrenner says they need to spend what it takes to put a championship product on the field. To do this with depleting the farm system is simple - overpay some quality players on short term deals. Beltran and a PED guy or two fit the profile perfectly. A few name signings, like KAzmir and Beltran espectially, will get enough of a buzz to bring back some fannies and TV ratings, and these deals should not impair the team in the long run. Kick start this fanbase in 2014. I agree with Mack and the philosophy of "build it and they will come". The Piazza game proves it. The 2013 attendance proves it. Yes, it was down, but they sold 2.1 million tickets with a team that was never in it and had a lifeless offense. If they continue on the cheapskate plan, they will drive attendance down to what it was in the late 70s, which will cause millions and millions more of future lost revenues, as it will be much harder to rebuild a fan base that has eroded even further. Fans are still interested but angry. Another season or two of minor league offense and waiting, and many fans will lose interest totally and find some other thing to blog about and occupy their time.
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