Michael Scannell - With how anemic the Mets' offense was in 2013, improving it is obviously a top priority.
Over the last few weeks we've been subjected to various names on the hot stove. I'm wondering specifically about Matt Kemp:
1) Do we think the Dodgers will move him?
2) Do we think they'd be willing to eat some of his contract and if so, how much?
3) What would the cost in terms of prospects be?
4) Taking into account the above three questions and assuming the Mets could and would insure his contract, do we want him on the team?
34 comments:
Honestly, I don't think we could answer any one of those questions. Kemp was their guy coming into this season, which is the reason he has that contract in the first place. Unless somebody called offering their top prospect(s), I do
Honestly, I don't think we could answer any one of those questions. Kemp was their guy coming into this season, which is the reason he has that contract in the first place. Unless somebody called offering their top prospect(s), I doubt they move him. He's also the only one of Puig, Ethier or Crawford who can play a decent CF. I think they are more than likely gonna move Ethier for a reliever, a similar bad contract or release him.
I like kemp a lot but the dodgers best shot at winning the World Series is to have Kemp healthy in October, not to shed some payroll for marginal prospects
The problem I think is that with the rumors swirling that the Mets might punt next season because of the Matt Harvey injury are we looking at Mets improving exclusively through their farm system and trade? If you thought that this years free agent class is weak look at next years. The only two free agents that are remotely attractive are an aging Michael Cuddyer who is more of a complimentary piece for an already good team and Ben Zobrist assuming he is not traded and signed long term this offseason. The Mets are almost in a position where if they are going to significantly improve over the next three years that they have to overspend this off season in order to do it. Add to the scarcity of players this offseason with the additional TV revenues and the Mets are probably looking at adding an extra 50 million to a four or five year offer to Choo or Ellsbury just to be the winning bidder. If Lincecum's signing isn't a shot across the bow I don't know what is. My point is that whether it is Kemp or anyone else the Mets need to make their bold moves this offseason because next year is going to be too late. Personally, I never was a big fan of Kemp as an outfielder. He is a much better centerfielder than corner outfielder but he showed that he was a well below average corner outfielder before he was moved to centerfield and the older he gets with the injuries he has one has to expect to have to be moved to a corner outfield position but he has already proven he has stone hands as a corner outfielder. I would pass on Kemp. In light of the current money influx Jose Reyes contract is actually going to look like a steal in a year or two but my question would be if the Mets could only make one trade this offseason which of Jose Bautista, Jose Reyes, or R.A. Dickey would be the best pick up for the Mets? Reyes would solve shortstop and leadoff. Bautista would provide sorely needed power. R.A. Dickey, more than any other pitcher available, would pitch enough innings to have a significant impact on keeping the entire bullpen fresh and he might bounce back to Cy Young form if he were back with the Mets. What say you?
Easy answer is Bautista
Easy answer? Bautista is the highest risk to reward player out of the three. He is coming off injury. Has played the majority of his career in the American League and thus there would be an adjustment period to the N.L. Toronto artificially inflates power numbers. Will he hit for average? and finally, wouldn't the Mets need to pay a lot more in prospects for Bautista where they may be able to get Reyes or Dickey as a salary dump?
This would be a disaster in the making for the Mets. The Dodgers will want at least 2 to 3 prospects for a guy that is brittle as grandma's bone china.Kemp has major shoulder and ankle problems. Some say the ankle problems will end his career.Let the big money Dodgers eat on those contacts of Either and Kemp.
To get back to original question is if the Mets were going to take on risk of Kemp's salary their is certainly significant potential high upside. I think that in order to make trade more palatable the Dodgers would probably need to trade Joc Pederson and Dee Gordon so receiving team could hedge their bets if Kemp never fully recovers from ankle injury or shoulder that has now been twice repaired by surgery. Is this more of a trade that might be made in spring training after Kemp can prove he is healthy? The problem is that Dodgers biggest need was at second base but they just signed Cuban defector so including Murphy wouldn't work. Lagares, Flores, and say DeGrom for Kemp, Pederson, and Gordon with the Mets eating Kemp's salary.
What about Braun. I believe Braun might be available ,and the Mets match up well with Milwaukee.
I don't think the Dodgers will give up on Kemp,and id rather have Pederson!
Dodgers wont move him.
And I dont think the other 2 (Crawford and Ethier) are worth trading for with those contracts they have.
But with Kemp, Crawford, Ethier and Puig and the need of a 3rd and 2nd baseman I could see a match with either Murphy or Flores (my choise because the Mets dont have any lefthanders left) for Joc Pederson. Perhaps an arm or 2 are needed when Flores is moved for Pederson.
Pederson in LF, Lagares in CF en Puello in RF at the end of 2014!!
Now we need Chris Owings from Arizona. With Gregorius and Nick Ahmed in AA the Snakes can move Owings for?? I would offer Dillon Gee. Perhaps they can make if even lager if the Mets add Tejada and the Snakes offer David Holmberg.
After those 2 trades I would sign 2 outfielders (Byrd and McLouth or so) for 1 or 2 year and find a few starters. Kazmir ( I wouldnt mind having him for a year or 3) and Josh Johnson ( 1 year so he can have a good year and become a FA to sign his big contract) to go with Wheeler, Niese and Mejia.
I would be happy with that.
Braun is an interesting case. I like his numbers but I am not sure he would survive New York. It appears that steroid users are getting a pass from their own fan bases and Braun has been calling the season ticket holders in Milwaukee to apologize. Braun would be a difficult fit in a new clubhouse because he lied and threw everyone else under the bus. Byrd was accepted into Mets clubhouse because he was a standup guy about what happened. Braun was the complete opposite. Braun was the AROD of the N.L. I don't think that is the pr move the Mets would want to make. With all that said, less risk with Braun than Kemp but Braun was nursing an injury this year and I don't remember hearing he ever got his wrist I believe it was operated on.
Big fan of both Pederson and Owings so would be happy with both. Dodgers signed Cuban second baseman so don't need Murphy but they could use Flores for third base. Dbacks are also looking for long term answer at third. I agree they should sign Marlon Byrd but not Mclouth. If you are going for wildcard signing how about taking flyer on Grady Sizemore if he can prove knee has recovered from microfracture surgery?
Mark, I think with the leadership inside the clubhouse DW.
There wont be a problem.
He would add the much needed protection to David.
And I don't believe he'll cost that much
First we all know Sandy's not going near any big dollar free agent signing or trade (Sandy please make me eat my words)so with that in mind my move would be for either Tulo or Cargo. Kemp's contract and injury history smack of Jason Bay x 3... ugh. Also both would be much better defensively at their respective positions and as long as we're still dreaming what about McCann behind the plate to mentor Travis (or include him in another deal)and provide some much needed left handed pop. I also loved how he stood up to Puig after his "in your face" homerun trot and we could certainly use someone like that because I can't think of any on our current team. O.K. I better wake up now.
Between the two scenarios I would rather have Braun than Kemp.
Even crazier is the trade 2 days ago where the Dodgers trade AAA OF prospet Alex Castellanos to the Red Sox for AAA OF Jeremy Hazelbaker
Gary, what do you think about an untraditional platoon of D'Arnaud and McCann at catcher and first base? They would both be kept fresher and that would solve first base as well. McCann would then transition full time to first toward end of contract.
Mark -
All we can do is speculate right now.
I'll take either, but I think Kemp is more available.
If Kemp is available, it will not be just to dump the salary...Kemp will cost Syndergaard or Wheeler +
That being said, i'd rather sign Ellsbury than trade for Kemp
Ellsbury for a second round 14' pick, is a better trade than Kemp for Syndergaard and probably two lesser prospects.
If we're going the trade route--I would call on Braun, I think he could be gotten for less, and he could be our Hernandez...
This is New York, Braun could be a Meth dealer and still get cheered as long as he bats .320
Here's what i know about kemp. He plays hard, he smiles, he can hit homeruns in a pitchers ballpark. Here's what i dont know: how much money the dodgers would kick in and how healthy he is?
Id love to have kemp in left field for the mets for the next 5/6 years. Id also love it to be at 14mm per year and him be healthy. when he has been healthy he is one the top 10 hitter in baseball.
there are a couple other things about kemp that i like that arent really about winning baseball games. 1. he's african american (which would be a great thing in nyc) 2. he seems to be comfortable playing in a big market and doing the marketing commitments. 3. he's a character plus not a character minus. 4. its a big time move and tells everyone the mets are back. 5. If you have Kemp, Wright and Harvey doing your media commitments, people like Zach wheeler will be a lot more comfortable in nyc, bc they wont have to do many. 6. putting him behind wright in the batting order should make wright a much better player.
Im not sure what youd have to give up to get him and the money, but its probably some young bullpen/pitching pieces, Gee, murphy/flores, pawlecki to start. what i wouldnt be giving up. thor or wheeler.
I also think the reason the dodgers would trade kemp is to increase their assets to trade for Price. so it might be more younger players then id think
I agree on the lack of Kemp dump.
Throw in Walter White with Braun and it's a deal.
Robb -
Like I've said before, I don't think the Mets have the players to pull off a Kemp deal. They no longer need a 2Bman and they have plenty of young pitchers.
Mark I'd be fine with that
I'd take Braun too.
Braun lacks integrity. He's a liar. Let Bud Selig's team keep him and remain handicapped by his salary. One less team to worry about.
Why take other team's problems?
You could only take Kemp if the Dodgers pick up 25% if his salary and accepted a second tier package for the salary relief.
Look, that want to keep Kershaw and losing Kemp helps big time. If they got Kemps salary down to 14-15 million and took a package of prospects like Mazzoni and Flores, you do it. Two years ago Kemp was the best all around player in the game. Injuries haven't helped, but he's still young.
Honestly, I don't see any deal happening. It's a moot point.
I dont think they do either, but id take Kemp if they did wo giving up any starting pitching under 25 or older then 20.
i dont think Braun can play in NYC. there is no way he's coming to a town with this kind of media attention.
LA doesn't need to dump Kemp's salary...They already offered Kershaw 300 million.
Kemp is a star...if they trade him it will be for top prospects they can then swap for Price
RE: Braun...I bet people said the same thing about Hernandez in 1983
Mark ~ it is interestng that you mention this trade. The same package was suggested on one of the other blogs (I believe it was by the accursed Joe D) and, after some thought, I came to like it . . at least some of it. Actually, including Murphy would work. The Dodgers need a 3B and what is Murph's natural position? 3B! The Dodgers also need a back of the rotation starter, and Gee fits that bill. I'm not a Dee Gordon fan. I think he's a AAAA player. I realize that with 600 PAs in a season he could be a 45-55 SB guy, but I wouldn't want to give him all those PAs.
Bottom line is I would offer Murphy (or Flores, if they prefer) and Gee for Kemp and Pederson. We'll solve our SS problem elsewhere . . there is too much out there far better than Gordon.
They offered Kershaw 300 million? Please post that link . I just don't believe that happened. Nobody, especially a pitcher., would turn down the highest contract in history. If that actually happened, he'd have signed the extension already.
Really Craig?
As for Braun, why go that route? MLB players don't like him and hate that he adamantly denied using Roids and made a fool of his friends. I know the mets are starved for offense, but at what point is there a line being crossed? Players like Bryd get respect for owning up to their mistakes. Guys like Petitte who admit guilt are able to earn respect back.
Braun? The mets get him and their instantly create a negative and bothersome story with countless questions via the media come spring. David Wright will have a microphone in his face, along with the rest of the team, being forced to put a positive spin on the incoming steroid cheat who lied to the whole country during a press conference.
Let Ryan Braun rebuild his credibility with the Brewers and let the Mets finds potent bats instead of more bad press.
http://tracking.si.com/2013/10/19/dodgers-clayton-kershaw-300-million-contract/
As far as Braun goes, i'm not sure as many fans care about the steroid issue as much as you. If he plays well, its a non-story for the most part.
At the end of the day it doesn't matter anyway. They'll end up signing someone like Nate Mclouth
Of course, I'd take either too . . but I'd make a play for Braun first. You are probably right that Kemp is more available. The Dodgers need to break their outfield logjam, and while they will probably go all out to move Ethier, he will be far more difficult to ship out. They will take a better offer for Kemp, and might add some cash to get a better mix of prospects.
Getting back to Braun, if I were Alderson I would make a very strong offer for Braun. He is seeking to repair his relationship with the fans of Milwaukee, but as of now he is still in disfavor. I wouldn't worry about how he will be regarded in the Mets clubhouse. He has always been regarded as a very positive clubhouse influence and I believe, with his outgoing personality, he would be able to relate well to the N.Y. fans.
I'm not sure why you think the Castellanos/Hazelbaker trade is so crazy. They are both potentially 5th outfielders at best. Dodgers got more speed while BoSox got more bat, although Castellanos tailed off some in the PCL this year. More bewildering to me is why the Dodgers claimed Baxter and then DFA'd Castellanos to make room for him. Isn't it ironic that Pedro Beato is the player DFA'd by Boston to make room for the player who was DFA'd to make room for Baxter?
I do not think the Mets should go after Kemp this offseason unless the price is low and the Dodgers eat a substantial portion of the contract. His health is a major question mark right now and that much money to a player with injury concerns could really hamstring the Mets in years to come. While I think Kemp is a fantastic player and could really help the Mets, I do not think the risk is worth the reward or the cost in dollars or prospects.
I would not mind seeing the Mets target a guy like Castro. He is a buy low candidate and if Theo did make him available, he is the guy I would target. He is young and talented and is signed to a reasonable deal considering Stephen Drew is looking at 12 million a year this offseason. I do not know what it would cost in prospects, but I would be okay starting a package with d'arnaud. Castro still plays a premium position and is younger than d'arnuad with proven major league success. I would not give up any of the premium arms but would be comfortable dealing d'arnuad, tejada (as a stopgap for Baez) possibly Robles and Koralek (or similar arms) for Castro and filling the hole at shortstop.
Mack ~ I don't know why you think we don't have what it takes to pull off a Kemp deal. As I mentioned before, L.A. needs a 3B and a 4th/5th starter. Murphy or Flores should be attractive for 3B (I'm not even mentioning Lutz) and Gee as a 4th starter. Taking all of Kemp's salary might make that enough, but if not, adding another position prospect (Dykstra, Lutz, Boyd?) should get it done.
Herb, I just think you're all dreaming.
You know I like Murphy but the Dodgers are a big ticket item and they go out and pay big bucks for big players.
Lutz is not a prospect... neither is Dykstra... and Boyd is coming off surgery
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