For what has been described as a mediocre farm system by many, it seems to me that the Mets have an awful lot of minor league players that warrant consideration for protection on the 40 man roster this year. As you know, a minor league player selected in the Rule 5 draft must be kept on the selecting team’s active (25 man) roster for the entire season, lest they be offered back to their original team.
After last week’s selection of Mike Baxter off waivers by the Dodgers (a move called bizarre by a Dodger blog) and Robert Carson by the Angels, and outrighting Greg Burke and Sean Henn, there are now 36 men on the 40 man roster, leaving 4 spots available to protect players. Right after the World Series the 8 Mets players eligible for free agency will come off the 40 man (unless one or more do not file for free agency - unlikely) but within 5 days from the end of the Series the Mets must reactivate the 8 players on the 60 day DL, resulting in a wash. Thus the Mets will go into the off season with 4 openings on the 40 man roster unless they make more moves in the next week.
Last November the Mets added six players to their 40 man roster to protect them, and the year before they protected seven. This year I believe even more warrant protection. Many of the Mets young pitchers could be attractive to other teams seeking to bolster their bull pens. A few position players might make valuable bench pieces for a non-contender, as well. To protect any more than 4 of them, the Mets would have to remove a corresponding player. At the end of the article I will provide links to the list of all Mets minor leaguers who will be eligible for the Rule 5 draft in December (unless they attain free agency beforehand) and a link to the Mets 40 man roster, so that you can make your own selections to protect and the corresponding players you would drop. In the list that follows, I have identified 9 pitchers and 3 position players that I would protect.
Pitchers - - - - - - - - - Pos - - Age - IP - - ERA - WHIP - BB/9 - K/9 - Hi Level
Jacob deGrom - - - - RHSP - 25 - 285.0 - 3.76 - 1.284 - - 2.3 - 7.5 - - AAA
Hamilton Bennett - LHRP - 25 - 203.2 - 2.30 - 1.046 - - 2.3 - 8.6 - - AA
Jeff Walters - - - - - RHRP - 25 - 185.2 - 2.91 - 1.217 - - 2.8 - 8.0 - - AA - 38 saves at Bing.
Darin Gorski - - LHSP/RP - 25 - 547.0 - 3.49 - 1.197 - - 2.9 - 8.1 - - AA (2013-1.84/0.864)
Chase Hutchingson- LHRP - 24 - 282.2 - 2.83 - 1.270 - 3.6 - 8.7 - - AA
Adam Kolarek - - - - LHRP - 24 - 227.2 - 2.69 - 1.204 - 3.6 - 9.7 - - AAA
T.J. Chism - - - - - - - LHRP - 24 - 191.2 - 2-11 - 1.143 - 2.8 - 8.5 - A+
Bret Mitchell - - - - - RHRP - 24 - 142.0 - 3.30 - 1.176 - 3.5 - 10.0 - A+ (2013 - 2.05/1.158)
Steven Matz - - - - - - LHSP - 22 - 135.1 - 2.39 - 1.160 - 3.7 - 10.3 - A
Position Players - - - Pos - - Age - PA - AVG - OBP - SLG - OPS - Hi Level
Darrell Ceciliani - - LHOF - 23 - 1525 - .282 - .353 - .401 - .754 - - AA ( 31 SB/7 CS - 2013)
Allan Dykstra - - - - LH1B - 26 - 2290 - .253 - .402 - .442 - .844 - - AA (2013 - .274/.436/.442)
Cory Vaughn - - - - RHOF - 24 - 1769 - .260 - .362 - .447 - .809 - - AA
Perhaps I am over rating our prospects, but I believe that any one of those players could be considered for a spot on another team. Note the wealth of solid lefties in the pitchers list. Matz is young, and doesn’t have that many innings under his belt due to injury, but would a non-contender think of stashing him on their 25 man for a year just to get a hold of him?
To accommodate the 12 players I am protecting, we would have to drop 8 from the current 40 man, since 4 spots are already available. This year the deadline for adding players to the 40 man roster to protect them is November 20, 2013. We could make trades prior to that date, or sign free agents, which could change the available number of spots on the 40 man. Assuming no changes to the roster, I would (reluctantly, in some cases) drop:
Scott Atchison
Hansel Robles
Anthony Recker
Zach Lutz
Omar Quintanilla
Andrew Brown
Jordany Valdespin
Gonzalez Germen
Beyond the 12 players I have listed above for protection, there are 4 players I consider on the bubble, and who I felt had to be left off. They are:
Mark Cohoon - LHSP - 25 - 725.1 - 3.78 - 1.297 - 2.4 - 6.4 - AAA
Erik Goeddel - RHSP - 24 - 321.0 - 3.76 - 1.352 - 3.5 - 8.2 - AA
Angel Cuan - - LHRP - 24 - 571.1 - 3.54 - 1.229 - 1.8 - 7-3 - A+
Angel Cuan (2013 as a reliever - 36.1 IP - 1.73 ERA - 1.96 WHIP)
Eric Campbell - RH3B/1B/LF - 2446 - .279 - .376 - .409 - .785 - AAA (2013 - .314/.435/.475 Vegas)
I truly believe that Angel Cuan could make an excellent reliever for someone this coming year. I hope he gets an opportunity to compete for a spot on the Mets next spring in St. Lucie, but he could be gone. It will be interesting to see who goes where come December.
Link to list of all Mets minor leaguers eligible for the Rule 5 draft in 2013:
http://tpgmets.blogspot.com/p/rule-5.html
Link to list of Mets 40 Man Roster:
http://newyork.mets.mlb.com/team/roster_40man.jsp?c_id=nym
13 comments:
I would bet almost anything that Gonzalez German is on the roster next year. I know the exercise that you were doing but one of Duda & Davis won't be on the roster next year so that solves that final roster spot.
Most of those guys shouldn't be protected.As far as Matz some team will take him because he is still young and has a great arm.
Herb,
Other teams have similar problems. Like the other teams, the Mets will identify those most likely to be retained on the drafting team's MLB roster for the entire 2014 season. This would all but rule out the position players. To me, Matz, deGrom, Walters, and Gorski are definites to protect. Next up would be the LHRPs, that could potentially serve as someone else's LOOGY in 2014. This will work itself out, it should not be a big worry for a team under .500 for the last 5 years.
There are two, distinct, processes we have to keep in mind. For the currently non-40 Rule 5 eligible there is the judgment of whether some team is likely to burn an active (25-man) roster spot for a full year; thus I would certainly protect Matz, deGrom, Walters, Bennet probably Gorski, & maybe Kolarek.
Position players are of less risk, I think, as teams are less likely to use up a 25-man slot for a marginally MLB-ready player whatever the ceiling—unless you know there is a particular target. [e.g. I was puzzled when Jesus Flores was not protected since Manny Acta had coveted him and was moving to the Nats.]
DEA’ing players OFF the 40-man is riskier. They are not Rule 5 fodder since teams need not burn a 25-man slot )f claimed off waivers, (I believe they must to on the claimer’s 40-man.) If they clear, anyone can sign them to a MLB OR MinL contract. I am hoping some November trade(s) alleviate the crush.
And BTW, as Mack will tell you, Angel Cuan has been my favoriye “dark horse” since his VSL days.
Morning guys.
I am back with the living and will produce a 'Morning Report' beginning tomorrow.
Thanks to Herb for standing in for me while I was away and off line (or is that offline?).
Anyway, I thought I'd hang around today, get my Thusday post ready, and BS here.
First off.... DID I MISS ANYTHING METS RELATED SUNDAY-TUESDAY? Someone did email me the three minor league cuts and I plan on discussing Zach Dotson tomorrow morning.
Regarding the Rule V... the Mets will protect Steven Matz.
I also would protect P Luis Cessa and Miller Diaz
It is great to finally be in the position that as we are letting players go that can not make our 40 man roster that they are being claimed on waivers. Clearly Sandy Alderson's plan to improve the system is working, albeit very slowly.
I agree with Hobie that we need to focus on the fact that a team that would add a player now to the 40 man roster, would not necessarily be able to carry him on the 25 man roster next season.
Working off Herb';s list I would outright the following players:
Atchinson, Recker, Q, and Brown. I believe that since they have all cleared waivers before that they would be free agents and could later be signed to minor league contracts by the Mets. I would resign all but Recker since we want to upgrade with a catcher with more experience in case TDA gets hurt.
I would trade JVI (and Davis or Duda) and put Lutz on waivers, but I believe that Lutz would be claimed.
As to who I would add, I would focus on those players that would get picked and kept a full year on the 25 man roster. That would be Matz,deGrom, Walters, Gorski, Kolarek and Ceciliani.
Hutchingson has some issues and you cant keep all of the lefties. Vaughn would not likely last the full year , but I could see someone stashing away Ceciliani because of his speed and defense. Dykstra is a keeper, but the Mets would have to make a corresponding move to dump Duda or Davis so I didnt worry about him. Same issue with Campobell.
Bennett, Goedell, Peavey, and Chism are not likely to get picked up, but if they do they will have to be casulties.
Diaz, Mitchell and Cessa just seem to far away for me for a team to keep on teh 25 man roster all year, but you never know what the Astros are thinking. That might make me really think about keeping Diaz and dropping Gorski or Ceciliani.
Fanlly, we have a Top 15 system, not the best system, so teams that will take a Rule 5 player have better minor league systems to choose from.
I could live with us losing 2 or 3 players with the likelhood that at least one would be returned.
I never found the Rule 5 (or is it Rule V) draft a big deal.
A lot of buildup to very little.
Teams don't want to commit a roster spot for an entire year to someone their own team doesn't consider worthy of a 40-man.
When Santana goes from the 60 day DL to the 40 man roster he goes off that 40 man roster when he becomes FA. So doesnt that mean you got an extra spot on your 40 man roster left?
Perhaps others on the DL who could become FA?
Germen is the player I agonized most about when considering players I might drop. He did reasonably well at the MLB level (34.1 IP, 3.93 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 4.2 BB/9) although I think his hype was better than his actual performence. His minor league stats, which are somewhat skewed due to the fact that he did much better in his early years (2008-10) than he did later on (2011-13) when he faced higher level batters, tell me that he isn't a major league calibre pitcher. Bottom line is I don't think he belongs in our bull pen long term. (That said, he will probably win a job in ST and excel for the next 5 years.)
If Duda or Davis is not on the roster next year, it is because one of them has been traded over the winter. Neither will be non tendered. I'm all for a Duda trade. Not so much for Ike, but I would move him too, in a heartbeat, for the right return. (Braun, CarGo, Kemp, Tulo, etc.)
I won't arm wrestle you over a few names. But I believe Bennett, Kolarek and Dykstra are also quite vulnerable.
I've been an Angel Cuan supporter for years too. Forgive me for the typo on his WHIP as a reliever. You probably realized it is actually 0.96. If I were an opposing GM, I'd grab him.
The Rule 5 draft is never a big deal until it is. I was dismayed when we lost Flores and elated when we selected O'Day. Flores' career seems to be on a downward spiral, so it was no big deal. O'Day, on the other hand, is a stellar reliever, and I was crushed when we let him go after he pitched only 4 (perfectly solid) innings for us.
Re Santana, he comes onto the 40 man and then comes off. No change. No extra spot.
No one else on the 60 day DL is a FA. You could think about removing Hefner or Rice when they come off the DL. I don't think the Mets will do that.
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