Matt Cerrone – In September, John Harper of the Daily News proposed trading Travis d’Arnaud, Dillon Gee and Rafael Montero for Tulowitzki, an idea that was not outright rejected when pitched to a Mets source. “We have to be open-minded,” the source told Harper. “We have to be ready to be creative.” http://metsblog.com/metsblog/edit-rockies-will-listen-to-offers-for-dexter-fowler/
Mack – I would have absolutely no problem with this deal. You trade a catcher that still hasn’t earned his keep, at best an SP3, and an untested pitching prospect for the best shortstop in the league.
Cerrone also said that the Rockies would take offers for both outfielders Dexter Fowler and Michael Cuddyer.
I’ll tell you this. If Sandy Alderson once again tries to go cheap, he’lll lose out on all the good names out there, both on the free agent market and via trades. The Hunter Pence deal has set the bar at a crazy level but it is what it is. You’re going to have to be ready to pay a few guys a once unheard of amount of money to fill in the right holes until you can build out within the system.
And, while we’re at it, just what does the system look like right now?
Here’s a short list of what should grow out of the affiliates in the next five years. There could be some other surprises… hell, I never had Juan Lagares listed on any projection list, but this, IMO, represents the potential major league players our current system is producing (this is an opinion piece, so please join in if you feel different about this):
2014 – SP Noah Syndergaard, SP Rafael Montero, RF Cesar Puello
2015 – C Kevin Plawecki
2016 – SP Steven Matz, SS Gavin Cecchini, OF Brandon Nimmo, 2B Dilson Herrera
2017 – SS Amed Rosario, 1B Dominic Smith
2018 – none yet
This is a conservative list and there’s a good chance a few more will develop from a list of players like Adam Kolarek, Jeff Walters, Jacob deGrom, Gabriel Ynoa, Michael Fulmer, Hamilton Bennett, Robert Whelan, Chris Flexen, Pedro Perez, Jhoan Urena, Wuilmer Beccera, Ivan Wilson, and Jared King… but, in my humble opinion, the system is still short a number of bats to guarantee a successful future.
FYI –
The New York Yankees reached an agreement to relocate their high Class A Florida State League franchise from Tampa to a planned new ballpark 90 minutes north in Ocala. The move, which was first reported over the weekend by the Ocala Star Banner, would not impact spring training for the Yankees’ major league team. The Yankees still have roughly 12 years remaining on a 30-year contract obligating them to maintain their spring home in Tampa at Steinbrenner Field. http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/yankees-strike-deal-to-move-fsl-team-out-of-tampa/
Sally asked –
Hey Mack, great site.
You follow the draft throughout the year. Do you have any fell on who the Mets will draft in the first round?
Mack – Thanks Sally.
There’s no way of knowing who will be picked until the team that has the 9th pick calls out their name, but we can narrow it down a little.
First, certain to be gone are players like LHP Carlos Rodon, RHP Tyler Kolek, RHP Touki Toussant, SS Jacob Gatewood, and SS Trae Turner.
Secondly, under Sandy Alderson, every first round pick has been a high school senior.
Here’s my guesses as of yesterday:
1 – LHP Rodon – NC State - any anyone possibly pick anyone else with the firs pick? He has been the first pick in the last ten mock drafts and only was picked less that first in only one all off-season (Baseball Draft Report – June 10, 2013). It will take a major injury to lower this pick.
2. RHP Kolek - Shepard (TX) HS – Here comes the high school pitchers. Kolek is obviolsy the best and I now have him higher than the ‘big three’ shortstops in this draft.
3. RHP Toussaint - Coral Springs (FL) – Touissant wowed them at the PG Showcase this past weekend in Jupiter and solidified a top five ranking.
4. SS/3B/OF Gatewood - Clovis HS (CA) - has climbed past Trea Turner as the top SS prospect in the draft.
5. SS Turner – NC State – Still a top five pick and a sure bet to be a regular MLB player someday.
6. Now it starts to get difficult. You can go power college arm (Tyler Beede), the flashy catcher ( Alex Jackson), or the 3rd best SS in the draft (nick Gordon. I pick C Alex Jackson - Rancho Bernardo HS (CA) - who could not stick here and eventualy wind up as a corner outfield.
7. RHP Tyler Beede – Vanderbilt - is a power college righty a la Mike Harvey that could easily be in the majors in 2015. He started the mock season as the top pick and the only reason he has dropped this low his high school fever.
8. RHP Jeff Hoffman – East Carolina – Hoffman has dropped a few spots but is still a big time power college pitcher.
9. RHP Grant Holmes – Conway HS (SC) – It would be interesting to see if Holmes was still available when the Mets pick came around. Definitely one of the top three high school pitchers out there.
10. OF/1B Braxton Davidson – TC Robinson HS (NC) – I list Davidson and break the ‘best player available’ rule. OF Michael Gettys projects out as a more talented overall player, but the Mets need Davidson’s power
15 comments:
Mack would you put D Lawley in the group of guys who could make an impact in 2014?
Lawley will probably need 2014 to prove he can make it at the major league level.
Considering the conservative way the Mets approach their kids, I expect him to open up first in Binghamton. We know his bat would work in Vegas.
Also, in his case it would be getting off of third base and playing regularly in the outfield which the Mets still haven't done.
Mack, with Cargo, Tulo, Cuddyer, Fowler, Arenado, Rosario the Rockies have a pretty good team (on paper). Missing somebody on 1st!!
Perhaps the Mets can trade Duda for Blackmon? (the 4th of-er on the Rockies) Helton is gone and I read that Cuddyer will move to 1st but perhaps the Mets can make that deal happen so Blackmon can have a real shot for the Mets.
It's a trade that would make sence for both teams.
Not buying the fact that the Rockies wanna trade any of the 6 mentioned above!
Jonah -
It's funny you bring up Cuddyer. I just finished working up my predictions to the Mets starting lineup (for tomorrow morning's report) and I have him as the Mets RFer and backup first baseman.
All the Rockies are doing is letting the baseball world know that their phones are open. All you need is one big mouth local beat reporter to spread the word that you're willing to listen.
The Rockies are a bad team that thought overpaying for bats could make up for the lack of atmosphere. It didn't work. They need to clear payroll.
I hope the Mets will get one bat of Davidson, Jackson or Gettys. I think anyone of these three can be a really good Major League OF and they just have to stock bats!! Mack what do you think about Derek Fisher? He reminds me a lot on Renfroe from last years draft.
[…] found an interesting article this morning written by Mack Ade of Mack’s Mets Report, where he lists his picks for which prospects he feels may call Citi Field their home in the next […]
Michi -
Fisher is a college junior and just doesn't fit the profile of the Mets drafting high school seniors in the first round.
It's all guesswork right now, but I too feel the Mets will go 'bat' once again with their first pick.
I simply forgot to list Lawley... DOH
Great stuff and super job finding things to write about when our front office seems like they've disappeared into the witness relocation program which we can only hope means their just preparing and waiting to spring into action next week (cue laughter in the back round). My question to you Mack is I'm hearing more and more chatter about the possible change in the NL to a DH in the near future so maybe this could be a good post for the War room.
A play for Cuddyer could be very much possible. If the Mets traded Davis and a mid level prospect (Pill?)for Cuddyer it would fit all parties needs.
Rockies need a good defensive 1B to replace Helton which Davis is despite his struggles early this year. He also brings a HUGE 40-50 HR power potential if they can figure out his swing at Coors Field. The difference between Davis and Cuddyer's salaries is also consistent with their plan of shedding a few Million $ of payroll without harming the team to reinvest in the FA market. This move would result in a savings of approximately $6.5M
On the Mets side they receive the offensive upgrade in RF they need at probably $7MM less then they would spend on Choo. Outside of his career season this year, Cuddyer is usually a .270+ hitter with 20 HR upside who doesn't have huge home/away splits.
If we assume the team has $25M to spend, and Cuddyer would only eat 6 1/2, We could then go out and upgrade 1B with Morse at $3-4M, Josh Johnson $6-8M, bring back LaTroy $2M, Grady Sizemore (minor), and Phil Hughes $5M.
If you assume we have $30M to spend then remove Hughes and add Peralta for $8M- $10M
I've said this before:
Any team that has a top 15 pick that doesn't pick the best pitcher available is insane. After seeing the returns for RA and Shields, it's a fact that the best value in baseball comes from ML starters. Regardless of position players available, I'd always choose the pitcher, even if I'm reaching 10 picks for him.
Think about it. Jose Hernandez and Wacha, if the Mets chose them, they'd easily be able to rebuild the roster with ML ready or close to it young prospects.
Jose Hernandez, Wacha, Wheeler, Niese, Gee, Mejia would be your options to start the year. Niese would be my trade chip as the veteran young starter with a great contract moving forward.
He'd be able to net the Mets their future corner OF'ers or a legit SS.
Why draft a Nimmo? Having ML starters to deal is the best way to remain young a cheap. I don't know who'll be available this draft, but I really hope the mets pick the best pitcher available, preferably from college.
Mack....Could you please tell us stories of your days as an 80's mustache man?
good idea...
we'll talk about it on Sunday
Cuddyer is an interesting option for RF. My only reservation is his defense. He had a -2.6 dWAR last season and a negative dWAR in each of the last 10 years. For the right deal, I'd go for him. For example:
If you include him the the trade mentioned at the start of this post, namely Tulowitzki and Cuddyer, it becomes very asttractive. Firstly, with Wilin Rosario firmly esconced behind the plate in Coloroado, sending d'Arnaud may not be what the Rockies need. Substitute Duda and add Germen, and you get:
Duda, Gee, Montero, Germen, and maybe Cessa for Tulowitzki and Cuddyer.
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