Stephen Guilbert - Draft '14: Where Do You Draft These Players?

A few prospects should go within small windows in the 2014 MLB player draft. Carlos Rodon and Tyler Kolek will be in the first few picks. Trea Turner will go between 4 and 9. Jeff Hoffman and Tyler Beede will go between 3 and 7. Alex Jackson should be between 1 and 5. However, there are a number of intriguing players who could go vastly different spots in the draft. It makes them hard to project. Sometimes teams completely pass on a player for a particular reason (injury, poor performance, signability questions) or for no real reason at all. Other players grab the attention of a single team and get taken dozens of picks before they should.

We also have the new CBA to thank for underslotting early in the draft to grab a better, more financially demanding player later.

I just have no idea with these guys. On one hand, I see the talent forces teams to take them within the first few picks. Then I think about it a different way and can see them slipping dozens of spots—if not full rounds—later than some have them projected.

RHP Nick Burdi- Louisville

Simply put, Burdi is the best reliever in the draft and he could probably pitch out of a major league bullpen now and be a lot of teams’ closer. The problem is, how early do you take a relief pitcher? 

             Mack - I absolutely love this guy, but I just can't spend my #10 pick on a relief pitcher. I just can't, even though I know he won't be around when the Mets pick again at #85. I just now I'm going to kick myself in the ass around three years from now on ths one.

RHP Touki Toussaint- FL HS

I have written plenty about this young pitcher who seems to be slipping on draft boards. No, the control is not quite there yet but he has one of the liveliest arms around and has two of the best single pitches in the draft. A team who believes in the arm strength and that the control will eventually come should take him in the top ten picks. I can also see him slipping to the tail end of the first round, the same way Lance McCullers did a few drafts ago.

            Mack - Everybody has soured on Toussaint because he has lost the ability to find the zone. He's a high school kid. How many high schoolers can even spell the word zone? Ceiling wise, there is none better, and he must be considered, but I would pass if either Grant Holmes or Kyle Freeland were still on the board.

1B- Casey Gillaspie- Wichita State

This switch-hitting first baseman has been hitting the cover off of the ball this year. He was not a player who looked like a consensus first rounder before the season but now should be. The question is where in the first round does he go? Does the ridiculous .394/.500/.674 line get him into the top 15 picks? Top ten? Or will the early consensus on him let him slip to the Cardinals who get yet another patient, powerful college slugger? Do teams take up-the-middle hitters or pitchers and let Gillaspie fall to the supplemental? 

         Mack - Gillaspie should be around when the Mets pick at #85. Hell, he still may be around on the Mets next pick. Dominic Smith is no lock at first base and offers 1/10th the power potential of Gillaspie. I'd consider picking him in the 3rd round, if he still there.

C- Mac James- Oklahoma

On one hand, he’s hitting .377, has the tools to stick at catcher (in a weak catching class), and has a 4:15 strikeout-to-walk ratio (yes, you read that correctly). On the other, no one thought he was going to be this good. Those sorts of numbers for a catcher who should stick at the position get you first round consideration. However, before the season, I saw no list that had him in the top 100 draft-eligible prospects.

        Mack - Frankly, I know very little about this guy so I'm going to have to pass offering any advise here.

OF- Michael Gettys- GA HS

Mack and I have written plenty about this young athlete and we are both big fans of his. However, where he is projected to be drafted changes dozens of spots by the week—typically based on how he has hit that week. I believe in the tools and I believe in his composition as a complete athlete and competitor. He should be a top 10 pick. Some don’t have him in the top 25. Gettys is my pick to shoot up boards as the spring season progresses.

       Mack - reminds me more every day of Austin Wilson from last year. I'm still very high on him but I think it's time to get back to a power SP with the 10th pick this year.

SS- DJ Miller- Delaware St.

The argument for Miller: He hits and he hits a lot. He has had a batting average well over .400 the entire collegiate season up to this point. He’s a shortstop, has speed, and uses the entire field.

The argument against: he’s a senior from a weaker conference who has not been much of a draft prospect. Teams have used first round picks on big stat collegiate players with various degrees of success. I am fascinated to see where Miller goes because I like him a lot and he is a guy I think the Mets could grab later than he should go.

      Mack - You just never now what you get when you start picking players that compete at lower school levels. The only tie-breakers would be how they have done in leagues like Cape Cod. Miller is a longer shot at best, somewhere in the 7th-10th round range.