Good morning.
Riley sends this question to me –
Afternoon
Mack. Long time reader since your ‘FU’ days.
You
seem to have a good beat regarding where, who, if, and when certain starters
are going to emerge from the pipeline.
Do
you have a forecast we can look forward to in the next few years?
Mack – Hey Riley. Yeah, I miss those Flushing University
days. Made a lot of great Mets friends there like ‘Hobie’ and the late, great Johnny Lowe.
First thing first… this is all a guess. Remember… we went into
this season sure we would have seven starters, five of which were great. What
did that get us?
My guess is Noah
Syndergard, Jacob deGrom,
and Steven Matz are safe to return to, and equally pitch
well, in Flushing.
I’m sure that Seth Lugo, Matt Harvey, Zack Wheeler, and Robert Gsellman will attempt to do everything thing they
can to hang on, but I’m sure “the new Mets manager” next year is not going to
look in the rearview mirror.
I see two pitchers that will come into play in 2018.
Chris Flexen looks
like a no brainer. All AA crosscheckers say he’s ready. His once one-pitch
91-96/mph repertoire is now up to four pitches, the last being the change-up
his game so desperately needed. I see Flexen as I have seen him since the day
the Mets stole him in the draft… a slam dunk.
Corey Oswalt seems
to be quietly becoming the next Mets rotation surprise. He was a 7th
round 2012 prep pick that really hasn’t had a bad season he has pitched for the
Mets (six years). He’s your factory built 6-4 righty that’s throwing Binghamton
this year as a 23-year old. He did lose half a season last year to a shoulder
injury but shows no sign of any recurrence. I don’t have Oswalt as a slam dunk,
but he will be ready sometime in 2018 to fill in an empty slot that could
develop.
Yoenes Cespedes –
I starting to jump on the Peter
Hyatt train regarding this dude.
Saturday’s
exit in the sixth inning was, in my opinion, another attempt to stand out at
everyone around him for the wrong reason. Once again, it looked like Cespedes
made his own decision to take himself out a game that he felt was already won.
Was it? Who the hell knows at this point.
Only
two things could get us away from all this anti-Yo talk. One, would be a 10
game winning streak, which just isn’t going to happen. The other would be a couple
of trades so we could start building the 2018 version of this team.
Either
way, Cespedes will be a Met.
Get
used to this crap long term.
T.J. Rivera –
MLBTR.com
reported that the Boston Red Sox are interested in either Astrubel Cabrera or T.J.Rivera
as a solution to their need this season at third base.
Here’s
what they said about T.J. –
Rivera,
who at 28 is younger than Cabrera and won’t even be arbitration eligible until
after the 2019 season, has survived a low walk rate (3.9 percent) since
debuting last year to post quality numbers at the plate. Through 311 PAs,
including 202 this year, Rivera has batted .315/.348/.469 – a line that’s
either 15 percent or 17 percent better than league average, depending on
whether you prefer OPS+ or wRC+. As such, he joins Harrison in looking like
someone who’d be rather tough to pry from his current employer.
Mack – Look, on my ‘perfect’ Mets team, Murphy and Wilmer Flores would be my two long term utility
infielders. I have no problem with a trade with Boston, but they don’t have a
single blue chip prospect that’s ready to play major league baseball in 2018.
Now, offer me two lower level prospects like RHP Shaun Anderson and RHP Gerson Bautista and we have a deal.
And lastly –
It seems that recent events, that included the Yanks
stepping up and solving their first base problem, have caused the Boston Red
Sox to turn to the Mets to find a solution to the lack of their infield depth.
They’re scouting us for Wilmer Flores, T.J. Rivera,
and Astrubel Cabrera while, at the same time,
alerting the entire media world that 3B prospect, Rafael
Devers.
A
good General Manager ought to be able to get two good future chips back for one
of the above mentioned guys, and here is a list of five Boston prospects that
should be targeted (and what MLB.com says about them) –
LHP
Jay Groome – ETA: 2019 - Groome's 6-foot-6 frame
is built for durability and he uses it to generate good downhill plane on his
pitches. His athleticism enables him to repeat his clean mechanics and fill the
strike zone. He has the potential to become an ace if his makeup issues don't
get in his way, and he could be the best pitcher signed and developed by the
Red Sox since Roger Clemens.
3B
Bobby Dalbec – ETA: 2019 - While Dalbec lacks
speed, he improved his range at third base in 2016 and most scouts think he'll
be able to stay at the hot corner. There's no question that he has the arm for
the position after he maintained a low-90s fastball and an effective slider
while opening his junior season as the Wildcats' closer and finishing it as
their top starter. He topped all Division I pitchers with 41 strikeouts during
the NCAA tournament and allowed just two earned runs in three CWS starts.
3B
Michael Chavis – ETA: 2019 - A high school
shortstop who became a full-time third baseman in instructional league after
his pro debut, Chavis has improved with experience at the hot corner. He's not
the rangiest third baseman but has a strong arm and should be at least an
adequate defender. There are some scouts who think he could become a second
baseman in the Dan Uggla mold.
RHP
Mike Shawaryn – ETA: 2019 - His fastball usually
runs from 90-94 mph, though it dipped as low as 86-88 mph early last spring.
His sweeping slider might be his best offering, missing bats against both
lefties and righties, and he also has feel for a deceptive changeup with fade. There's
some debate as to whether Shawaryn will remain a starter in the long term.
Helping his cause, he throws a lot of strikes and has a strong, durable build
that allows him to maintain his stuff into the late innings and over the course
of the season. But some scouts don't like his arm slot and the effort in his
delivery, and his fastball and slider could become plus pitches in shorter
stints.
RHRP
Jake Cosart – ETA: 2019 - After operating with
an 88-92 mph fastball in his two seasons as a pro starter, Cosart recaptured
the velocity he flashed at Seminole State when he moved to the bullpen. He now
works at 94-97 mph and can hit 99 with some natural cutting action. He has
scrapped an ineffective changeup in favor of a splitter that shows potential
and is better than his soft curveball. There's a lot of effort in Cosart's
delivery, which hampers his control but does bolster his deception. He's finding
the strike zone more easily since coming out of the bullpen, though he'll
always be much more about power than finesse. Now that he's attacking hitters
with better stuff, he has the upside of a set-up man.
5 comments:
You left the great Rafael Montero out of your starter equation - surely an oversight :)
If Flores or Rivera get traded, it better be for real prospects.
NY Post article today seemed to feel that (once again) the Mets are not in advantageous positions to sell. Figures.
That is because people who want to make deals are aggressive, not passive.
Alderson had lots to deal this year - if he fails to do it well, shame on him.
Trade vets, get good prospects, bring up ours, get a good draft slot.
Hope 2018 is a lot healthier.
Mack, Flexen can be a slam dunk in Queens this September too, unless Thor, Familia, Harvey and Gsellman all return and he does not get the opportunity. I'd make room for him to have that opportunity.
Wheeler will most likely be shut down. He is up to 81 high pitch count innings already - so I'm guessing maybe he pitches thru August.
At this point I just want to clear out the parts that wont be back. That means moving on from cabrera (trade, cute, whatever). Getting a return for bruce, bc i dont think you can get one for granderson. You should be able to get a future piece or two low level pitching prospects for Duda. After that, its about getting real value for Reed. If its a bundled scenario great, if not cool too, but he would actually make a difference for most contenders.
Turn the page. Rosario should be up before the next homestand, hopeful smith too. put nimmo back into cf and roll forward.
Also, theres nothing to stop the mets from resigning Reed/bruce if they want to after the season, given the payroll it wont be because of money, just valuation.
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