Reese Kaplan -- What If deGrom WAS Traded?

For all of the Noah Syndergaard “Thor” mystique, the fact is that it is Jacob deGrom who quietly matched him pitch for pitch.  There are a lot of rumors swirling about a possible trade of deGrom to the Houston Astros which would certainly be tantamount to throwing in the towel on the 2017 season, but would it be good business to do so?

A lot of people are pushing Jose Quintana as a comparable for what deGrom would net, but I would posit that deGrom should return even more.  First of all, let’s look at the numbers – 2.89 FOR HIS CAREER for deGrom vs. 3.49 for Quintana.  I can go line-by-line citing stats, but the end result is that deGrom is superior across the board.  Furthermore, Quintana, though being a year younger, is already in the big money portion of his career.  This year he’s earning $7 million, next year $8.85 million, then jumps to $10.5 million and $11.5 million the following two years if his options are picked up.    Contrast that to the fact that deGrom is earning just a hair over $4 million this year, is arbitration eligible for the first time in 2018, and is under team control through the end of the 2020 season, becoming a FA for 2021.  He is a better pitcher earning less money and thus should be far more attractive to an acquiring team.

The question for the Mets, of course, is whether or not they could withstand the loss of that kind of talent.  A lot depends on the glass half-full or half-empty perspective on the near future of the ballclub.  During this past off season the braintrust believed that nothing was necessary to be done to ensure a return to the post season, not even taking into account how injuries could impact things.  Needless to say, that inertia approach to team building has been a colossal failure of the level that will likely be taught in sports management curriculum for years to come. 

So if you are in the first camp and think the Mets are merely some bad health issues and a player or two away from respectability, then trading Jacob deGrom in his prime is not for you.  You would need him to anchor a staff alongside Noah Syndergaard, Matt Harvey, Steven Matz and Zack Wheeler.  Seth Lugo and perhaps Robert Gsellman are the backups and you have reinforcements at AA and below.

However, if you are of the “rebuild” mindset, then you are thinking 2018 is probably a lost cause, too, and you have to be thinking about 2019 and beyond.  Towards that end could the team withstand the loss of deGrom if it brought back people who might contribute to a long term solution for 2019 and into the next decade?

Let’s assume for the moment that they do pull the trigger on a deGrom trade (highly unlikely), what would the pitching rotation look like next season?  You would start with Noah Syndergaard, Matt Harvey, Steven Matz and Zack Wheeler.  The next in line would be Seth Lugo, but I would suggest an aggressive youth-oriented approach might want to include Chris Flexen who is currently making it look easy in AA.  He sports a 1.73 ERA, walks under 1 batter per 9 IP and strikes out over more than 1 per IP.  Granted, he is just 22 years of age, but Dwight Gooden was 19 when he made his major league debut.  Furthermore, knowing how Flexen performs at the major league level would also help the team know what to do with Matt Harvey who is a prime candidate for a deadline deal next season before he becomes a free agent. 

Now there have been many column inches already written about what you would get in return for deGrom, so I’m not going to rehash that same territory.  Furthermore, I don’t know why the Mets would only entertain offers from the Astros.  I would be going after quality rather than quantity.  An acquiring team’s top two prospects plus some wildcards from further down in the depths of their system would not be unreasonable for a guy whose career numbers are mirroring that of Tom Seaver. 

What?  You’re crazy!  He’s good but he’s not THAT good!

Really?

.615 winning percentage vs. .603 for Seaver.  2.89 ERA vs. 2.86 for Seaver.  1.111 WHIP vs. 1.121 for Seaver.  7.7 hits per 9 IP vs. 7.5 for Seaver.  2.3 Walks per 9 IP vs. 2.6 for Seaver.  9.5 Ks per 9 IP vs. 6.8 for Seaver.  Yeah, he is that good. 

At the time of the Midnight Massacre the Mets acquired Pat Zachry (co-holder of Rookie of the Year), Doug Flynn, Steve Henderson (2nd in voting for ROY with the Mets who delivered 12/65/.292 in about half a season's worth of ABs), plus Dan Norman, a highly regarded prospect who was coming off a 17/63/.273 season in AA with 33 SBs.  He, of course, didn’t pan out. 

What is very different this time is that there is no animosity between the front office and the star pitcher.  There’s a ton of money coming off the books next year so paying deGrom in his first year of arbitration eligibility is certainly not a problem.  Consequently, Sandy Alderson can do what he does best…sit on his butt waiting for the phone to ring because failing to trade deGrom would result in having his great talent again next year.  He can ask the sun, the moon and the stars and see if anyone bites.  There’s no pressure to trade him, but major pressure if he did to ensure he got multiple players of value in return.  Furthermore, deGrom is 29 and Seaver was 3 years older when traded.

I’m not in favor of moving deGrom as talents like his don’t come along all that often, but if some team started off by saying you could have their Amed Rosario, their Dom Smith plus two more lower level minor leaguers, I’d certainly have to consider it.