Tom Brennan - David Thompson, Mets' 2019 Starting 3B?

Tom Brennan: David Thompson, Mets' 2019 Starting 3B?

Admit it...repeat after me...David Wright is finished, a tremendous career in the making truncated Mattingly-style.

Third base this year has not been kind to the Mets...21st in average at .241 (Nationals 3Bs have hit .306), 24th in RBIs at 37 (Brewers 3Bs have 78).

Perhaps Rivera or Flores, if they played every day, would do a lot better, but the position is not a strength should either be manning it full time in 2018, in all likelihood.

AAA has no answers: Phil Evans has perked up a bit lately, but he has been mediocre this year, far from a starting MLB 3B, and not close to a back up one.

So unless the Mets opt for the trade route, we look to AA:

DAVID THOMPSON

After a short 2015, full 2016, and season-to-date 2017, here is my take as of now:

He could take over as a starting 3B in late 2018 for the Mets if all goes right, and more likely in 2019.  Why?

PLUSES:

He drives in a lot of runs: 161 in 929 at bats, which works out to a rate of 100 RBIs over 575 at bats.  Nice.

He does not fan excessively: about 1 every 5.1 plate appearances.

His fielding is solid, if not sensational.

He only turns 24 next month, and so has climbed quickly and reached AA at an early enough age.

His name is David and he plays 3rd base. We're used to that.

ISSUES OR CONCERNS:

In 137 games in High A and AA in 2016 and 2017, he is only hitting about .260/.325/.410...decent but far from great.

However, after a very slow April start, he has hit .280 since in 204 at bats with 18 doubles and 7 HRs.  Solid.  Better.

He is not fast, but has stolen 14 of 17 over 257 games, showing he can be opportunistic.

MY TAKE:

Thompson could be the 2019 starting Mets 3B - or fall short. 

Wilmer Flores did better at an earlier age in the minors.  TJ Rivera hit better but with less power at the same age.  Right now, I'd favor either of them over Thompson in 2019.

Simply, Thompson will have to kick it into a higher gear to grab the 3B spot; he has made real progress but still has a lot to prove.  In fairness, he has played just 257 games, so further progress can be safely assumed.

How about Jhoan Urena?

Urena is a year younger than Thompson; after 2 bad years, he has rebounded nicely, to .293/.381/.436 over 87 games in St Lucie, although he has only hit in the high .240s since the start of June.  He seems to have a bit more speed than Thompson, but a slightly higher strikeout rate.  Fielding-wise at 3rd, Mr. Urena is not good: 37 errors in 134 games this year and last. 

He most likely forfeits his chance at starting for the Mets at 3B right there.  At first base and in the outfield, however, he has just 1 error in 31 games this year, so his future may lie more at first (where he competes with Dominic Smith and Pete Alonso) or in the outfield.

To me, I say ask me the same question this time next year.  Safe to say at this time, he has improved, but still is no shoe-in for the majors down the road. 

CONCLUSION: the last 10 weeks of 2017 will tell a lot as to the future of either Rivera or Flores at third base.  Neil Walker might be a candidate, too, but he'd have to sign a favorable contract and be willing to play 3rd. Rivera is a far cheaper option.

Thompson's outlook should start to clarify once we see how he performs the rest of 2017.

Maybe 2016 2nd rounder Pete Alonso can switch to third, which I believed he played some of while in college - he may have the best big league power bat if he can move there successfully.  However, all 68 pro games for Pete so far have been at 3rd, and he won't be ready before late 2019, in all likelihood.  He is, however, slow, to be blunt.

Manny Machado may be an expensive long term solution.  

However, I am now betting on TJ RIVERA as the Mets' 2018 starting 3B. The guy with the .314 major league career BA.

MUSINGS:

Who'd have thought as 2017 started that through July 17, TJ RIVERA would have a higher average and more RBIs than YOENIS CESPEDES.  But their combined RBIs total just 45.

Jose Reyes for Player of the Mid Month?  He has, after all hit .330 with 6 homers from June 16 thru July 16.

Jay Bruce with 24 homers in 82 games...my guess is only Kingman, Beltran, and perhaps Hundley had that many in their first 82 games of a Mets season.

Being objective, will Zach Wheeler and Steve Matz ever be more than # 5 starters?

Seth Lugo and a similar Mets minors starter Corey Oswalt in AA had similar pitching lines Saturday.  They both also homered.  And they are both pitching well.

8th round pitcher Trey Cobb has not allows an earned run for Brooklyn in 6 outings.