Mack’s Morning Report - 7-13 – Mets-Twins Trade, MLB returning Mets pitchers, Pitch count vs. Strikeouts, Mets vs. Nats in 2012 Draft,


Good morning.

Possible Trade With The Twins?

MLBTR.com reports - The Twins are “checking in” on a few starting pitchers around the game, according to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (via Twitter). Minnesota is seemingly limiting its interest to controllable arms at this point.
Who doesn’t wants controllable pitchers?

Base on the results of what our guys have done, only Seth Lugo and Steven Matz seem to fill this bill. I for one would not trade Matz, but let’s look at some of the prospects in the Twins system that could cause us to salivate, especially if it was a 2-for-1 deal:

Stephen Gonsalves, LHP, Grade B+: You can make a good case to put him ahead of Gordon on strength of stellar 2016, 2.06 ERA in 140 innings, 155/57 K/BB, just 86 hits. Improvement in secondary pitches (curve, change, cutter) was key factor in 2016 and the numbers certainly back up strong reports. Fastball isn’t always premium in low-90s but respectable for a lefty, projects as a number three starter and perhaps more. Age 22. ETA: late 2017.

            2017 – AA: 10-starts, 5-3, 2.95 0.95, 58-IP, 65-K

Fernando Romero, RHP, Grade B/B+: One of the better-kept secret in the minors after missing 2015 with Tommy John, came back hitting mid/upper-90s and throwing strikes, posted 1.89 ERA in 90 innings in A-ball with 90/15 K/BB and just 66 hits; a bit more refinement of his secondaries will help but overall both numbers and scouting reports are excellent and he is just 21 years old. Don’t sleep on this one. ETA: 2018.

            2017 – AA: 17-G, 16-starts, 7-6, 2.78, 1.25, 90.2-IP, 91-K                 

Tyler Jay, LHP, Grade B: 2015 first-rounder pitched relief at Illinois but is a starter in pro ball, posted 2.84 ERA in 70 innings in High-A with 68/21 K/BB but struggled after moving up to Double-A (5.79 in 14 innings, 9/5 K/BB) and was sidelined with neck and shoulder issues, leading to durability concerns; lively 90-95 MPH fastball and plus slider when healthy, off-speed stuff still needs refinement. I like his stuff a lot but ability to manage workload is an issue and prevents a higher grade at this time. Age 22, ETA 2018.

            2017 – AA – 2-G, 0-0, 4.50 (on DL most of year with bicep tendinitis)

Mitch Garver, C, Grade C+: Ninth round pick in 2014 from the University of New Mexico, hit .257/.334/.419 with 25 doubles, 11 homers in Double-A then was very hot late in the year in Triple-A with .329/.381/.434 mark; flashes above-average power but not likely to hit for average in the majors; was often seen as a future first baseman in college but his defense has turned out to be very impressive: threw out almost 50% of runners this year and has made huge strides with receiving and game-calling; older prospect at age 25 but given need for catching in Minnesota he is someone to track closely. ETA 2017.

            2017 – AAA – (Rochester… normal air) – 213-AB, .286/.390/.540/930, 12-HR, 35-RBI

MLB returning Mets pitchers

MLBTR.com  - The Mets are set to begin welcoming back some dearly missed players, as Marc Carig of Newsday reports. That includes star righty Noah Syndergaard, who is going to pick up a ball again in about two weeks, and closer Jeurys Familia, who’ll do so over the All-Star break. It also includes former star righty Matt Harvey, whose future remains murky. Interesting, pitching coach Dan Warthen says that doctors found significant weakness in Harvey’s right shoulder muscles. The current focus is on “building that back up,” says Warthen, though at present it’s unclear just when Harvey might be expected back.

            Mack – Jeez, is this what we want here?

I’d much rather both Syndergaard and Familia resting their arms for the remainder of the season and go into their off-season program even more healed and rested.

As for Harvey, pitch him as much as you want. He has no trade value at this point and 3-4 excellent outings in a row (what’s the odds on this happening?) would do wonders for his future outside of Flushing.

Steven Matz said –

            “I’m learning that strikeouts are fun sometimes, but I think when you try to strike people out, pitch counts are higher.”

                        MackGod, I’ve never heard this said so simple and so accurate at                            the same time.

I can’t tell you how many times I became stressed out watching Mets starters reach 50 pitches before the end of the third inning. I knew then that they were never going to make it to the end of the game and I would just start praying they could get throw an inning with 10 or less pitches thrown. Well, this is close to impossible if you need nine of those pitches to generate strikeouts in that same inning.

I guess, in the long run, we want starters that can get someone to put the ball in play, preferably through a ground ball in the infield. Not going to do much for the ole K/9 stats next to your name, but the real test here is IP/G and wins verses loses.

Mets vs. Nats: 2012 Draft –

            Someone left a comment last week saying that they wondered what our piss poor drafting looked like against other teams.

            I compared here the Mets and the Nationals, for the first five rounds of the 2012 draft. This would be the first year in a long time that the Mets picked ahead of the Nats:

            I marked in red the players that seem to have progressed the better over the past five seasons.

Round 1 –
            Mets: SS Gavin Cecchini – AAA: .253
            Nats – SP Lucas Giolito – AAA:  2-8, 5.40

Round 2 –
            Mets:  3B Matt Reynolds – MLB:  .206
            Nats – 2B Tony Renda – AAA: .260

Round 3 –
            Mets:  P Matt Koch – AAA:  9.00
            Nats:  P Brett Mooneyham -  OOB 2015

Round 4 –
            Mets:  2B Brenden Kaupe – OOB 2015
            Nats:  OF Brandon Miller – OOB 2015

Round 5 –
            Mets:  P Brandon Welsh – OOB 2015
            Nats:  C Spencer Kieboom – AAA: 3.19
            Mack – Interesting… pretty rotten draft by both teams. I do also want you all to notice something. This encompassed five seasons and not one of these 10 players have become a starter in the majors. We think the Mets move these guys along too slowly. Well, maybe others do too.


Thomas Brennan said...

Gsellman for a few of these Twins guys?

Matz has it right - you have a great opportunity to differentiate yourself from the competition by going 8 or 9 innings with some regularity if you can minimize pitch count. A mediocre starter in his day with a .425 win % and 20-34 as a Met, he nonetheless completed 72 of 301 career starts.

Even now, wouldn't you trade Giolito for Cecchini, though (both of whom are having "off" years in 2017)?

Gary Seagren said...

For me it would be Matz as he would bring back the most (crossing fingers he stays healthy) but AFTER the season not now. I'd take the gamble he stays healthy the rest of the season and if his #'s are good he should bring back at least 3 top 100 prospects. Mack whats your latest evaluation of our catchers. I know Nido got an all-star start with just avg. offensive #'s but figure he must be looked at highly to get the nod....what are your thought's?

Hobie said...

I remember Seaver saying a 3-pitch inning was so much more satisfying than a 3-K inning.

Thomas Brennan said...

Hobie, that is why Seaver is in the hall - not in the least stupid.

I read about a month ago that he scoffed at today's workout regimens - pitchers today should follow his methods - Jake, for one, does. I write about Sir Jake tomorrow.

Mack Ade said...

Gary -

Regarding catchers, Tomas Nido is far from convincing me he can become a full time major league starting catcher.

Past that, Patrick Mazeika (A+) is next in line but his future might be on first.

Next - 5/6 years away - Juan Uriarte

Not great, Gary

Thomas Brennan said...

Hi Mack and Gary - I still think Ali Sanchez might be a catcher viable candidate, but he has to start hitting more. I agree with you on Nido - Plawecki right now is a far better hitter, and no one is thinking of him as a first string catcher at the moment.

Some guy named Ronaldo Hernandez in the Ray's Appalachian League affiliate shows what a real exciting catcher candidate looks like: 19 years old, .465/.481/676 after 17 games, doesn't strike out, and has gunned down 54 of 99 base stealers since turning pro.

Thomas Brennan said...

Happy 27th birthday tomorrow to Jack Leathersich, who has fanned 26 in his last 10 games and 14 IP in AAA. Last 9 innings, 18 Ks, 2 hits, no runs. Jack is on fire.

If Cubs don't call him up, bring him back to Citifield. He can pitch in my pen instead of Salas or Ramirez any day.

Reese Kaplan said...

He's only 27. The Skipper wouldn't deign to use him for at least 3 more years.

Mack's Mets © 2012